Russian forces have conducted repeated infiltration attempts and small-unit advances around Kupiansk in Kharkiv Oblast since late 2024, including pipeline incursions and probes into northern and western suburbs, but Ukrainian defenders have repeatedly cleared positions and restored control over key urban areas through counterattacks. Independent assessments through mid-2026 confirm Russian troops hold no consolidated ground inside the city proper, with activity limited to sporadic outskirts clashes and failed encirclement efforts near settlements such as Pishchane. Ukrainian forces reported net territorial gains across the front in 2026, including localized improvements east of Kupiansk, amid intensified drone and artillery interdiction. These battlefield realities underpin trader consensus that full capture remains improbable in the near term, with resolution hinging on verified consolidation of the entire city rather than partial claims.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoFierce fighting continues near Kupiansk with expanding control zones
December 31 rises to 21%2%
Reports indicated ongoing heavy fighting near Kupiansk with expanding control zones but no decisive Russian capture. The continued contested status of the area contributed to low market confidence in Russian capture by the resolution dates.
ISW reports continued Russian infiltration missions in Kupiansk area
June 30 rises to 3%1%
Geolocated footage showed ongoing Russian infiltration missions in northern and central Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions. ISW assessments indicated contested control rather than full Russian capture, sustaining low market confidence in a full capture by June 30.
ISW confirms continued Russian infiltration in Kupiansk area
December 31 plunges to 14%17%
Geolocated footage showed ongoing Russian infiltration missions in northern and central Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces striking back. ISW assessed Russian forces were consolidating some positions but suffering high casualties, limiting prospects for full capture.
Russian forces conduct infiltration mission in Kupiansk direction
June 30 rises to 3%2%
On June 11, geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers operating in northeastern Kupiansk during an infiltration mission. ISW assessed that Russian forces remain unlikely to conduct major ground operations in the near term, indicating limited Russian control and no full capture of Kupiansk municipality.
Geolocated Footage Confirms Russian Infiltration Mission in Northeastern Kupiansk
June 30 rises to 4%2%
Geolocated footage showed Russian servicemembers operating in northeastern Kupiansk during a small-scale infiltration mission, confirming they do not hold stable control of the city.
ISW reports continued Russian infiltration near Kupiansk without territorial gains
ISW documented Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk with Ukrainian forces responding effectively, showing no evidence of Russian full capture, which kept market prices low for Russian control by year-end.
ISW sees continued Russian infiltration but no capture of Kupiansk
December 31 rises to 14%2%
The June 10 assessment noted continued Russian infiltration missions but no territorial gain and highlighted Ukrainian defensive actions. The reiteration that Russian forces remained limited near Kupiansk kept market sentiment low, stabilising the price around 14 %.
ISW reports Russian tactical advances near Kupiansk but no full capture
December 31 rises to 14%2%
ISW noted Russian infiltration missions and tactical gains near Kupiansk and Kostyantynivka but confirmed ongoing Ukrainian resistance and no full Russian control of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining market skepticism about full capture.
ISW reports Russian tactical gains but no full capture near Kupiansk
December 31 jumps to 31%14%
ISW noted Russian tactical advances in nearby Kostyantynivka and infiltration missions around Kupiansk, but no evidence of full control. This contributed to continued market decline in the probability of full Russian capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Advance in Borova Direction as Russian Infiltrations Continue
Reports showed Ukrainian forces making tactical advances southeast of Borova while Russian forces continued to struggle with uncoordinated infiltration missions near Kupiansk.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk
December 31 jumps to 16%5%
Geolocated footage showed Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk, but no evidence of full control. Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions, indicating ongoing contested engagements rather than Russian capture. This maintained market doubts about Russian capture by June 30 and December 31.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian servicemember northeast of Kupiansk after infiltration mission
June 30 rises to 3%1%
On June 8, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking a Russian servicemember northeast of Pishchane near Kupiansk following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing Ukrainian defensive success and no Russian full control of Kupiansk municipality.
ISW map update confirms Kupiansk remains under Ukrainian control
The ISW frontline geometry update as of June 7, 2026, confirmed that Kupiansk municipality is not fully controlled by Russian forces, with the area remaining contested or under Ukrainian control, solidifying the market's low probability for Russian capture by the resolution date.
Assessments Confirm Russia's Declining Rate of Advance in Ukraine
December 31 dips to 12%1%
Independent military assessments published in early June confirmed that Ukrainian forces liberated more territory in May than Russian forces managed to seize, highlighting Russia's declining offensive capabilities.
Ukrainian Forces Liberated More Territory Than Russia Seized in May
December 31 drops to 11%5%
Data from Ukrainian military sources indicated that Ukraine successfully restored control or eliminated Russian infiltrators across 250 square kilometers, outpacing Russian gains.
ISW map shows no change in full control of Kupiansk by Russia
The ISW map on June 6, 2026, showed no new Russian gains sufficient to claim full control of Kupiansk municipality. This lack of progress kept market prices for Russian capture low and stable near the end of the analysis window.
ISW map confirms contested control of terrain in Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 13%4%
ISW's June 6 map showed Kupiansk as a contested area with neither side holding full control, reinforcing market doubts about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by the end of 2025.
ISW final map update shows Kupiansk not fully under Russian control
December 31 dips to 12%1%
The ISW map update as of June 6, 2026, confirmed that Russian forces had not captured the entirety of Kupiansk municipality, supporting the market's low probability assessment for full Russian control by November 30, 2025.
Ukrainian forces maintain control and conduct strikes near Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 11%2%
Geolocated footage and ISW assessments showed Ukrainian forces holding positions and striking Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk in early June 2026. This demonstrated continued Ukrainian control and resistance to Russian advances, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces continue strikes on Russian positions near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Ukrainian forces conducted strikes on Russian positions near Kupiansk, maintaining pressure and preventing Russian consolidation of control over the city, reinforcing the contested status and contributing to the market's low probability of full Russian capture.
ISW reports ongoing Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 26%2%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions after infiltration attempts near Kupiansk, indicating Russian forces were active but not consolidating control. This maintained market doubts about full Russian capture by December 31.
ISW confirms continued Ukrainian control of Kupiansk municipality
December 31 plunges to 12%23%
By June 3, 2026, ISW assessments confirmed that Ukrainian forces still controlled the majority of Kupiansk municipality, with no full Russian capture. This sustained Ukrainian control led to further declines in market prices for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 13%4%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in Novoosynove southeast of Kupiansk following Russian infiltration missions, indicating active Ukrainian defense and contesting Russian control claims. This maintained downward pressure on market prices for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration mission
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions southeast of Kupiansk following a Russian infiltration mission, indicating ongoing contested control and active Ukrainian resistance preventing full Russian capture.
Ukrainian Forces Strike Russian Infiltration Position in Novoosynove
December 31 drops to 11%6%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces successfully targeting and neutralizing a Russian infiltration attempt southeast of Kupiansk, confirming active Ukrainian defense.
ISW reports Russia's monthly land gains collapse to minimal levels including around Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 21%14%
ISW and OSINT data showed Russia's monthly territorial gains in Ukraine collapsed sharply to just 14 square kilometers in May 2026, including around Kupiansk. This indicated a significant operational slowdown and inability to capture new territory, further lowering market expectations for Russian capture of Kupiansk.
Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk repelled by Ukrainian strikes
December 31 rises to 16%2%
On June 1, Russian forces conducted infiltration missions northeast and southeast of Kupiansk, but Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions effectively, preventing Russian advances and maintaining Ukrainian control over Kupiansk municipality.
OSINT data confirms collapse of Russian monthly land gains near Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 16%15%
By June 1, OSINT data showed Russia's monthly territorial gains in Ukraine had collapsed to minimal levels, including near Kupiansk. This confirmed the sharp slowdown in Russian offensive capability and diminished chances of capturing Kupiansk fully by the deadline.
ISW: Russia adds only 14 km² in May, far below prior months
June 30 dips to 5%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces occupied only 14 km² of new territory in May, underscoring a very slow pace and further depressing the “June 30” market outlook.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration missions
On June 1, geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions west of Fyholivka and in western Kurylivka near Kupiansk after Russian infiltration missions. Ukrainian forces also cleared nearby areas of Russian infiltrators, indicating continued Ukrainian control and resistance against Russian advances.
Russian Forces Conduct Infiltration Missions Near Kupiansk Without Advancing
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Geolocated footage confirmed that Russian activity near Kupiansk was limited to small-scale infiltration missions that were successfully targeted by Ukrainian forces, showing no major territorial gains.
Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 plunges to 16%15%
Ukrainian military sources confirmed full control over Kupiansk, denying Russian claims of control and reporting ongoing small-scale Russian infiltration attempts that were repelled. This solidified market belief that Russia would not capture Kupiansk by year-end.
Ukrainian intelligence reports minimal Russian territorial gains in May 2026
December 31 drops to 13%5%
A Ukrainian military intelligence source reported that Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in May 2026, indicating a significant slowdown in Russian advances and reinforcing doubts about Russia capturing Kupiansk fully by the end of the year.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions near Kupiansk after infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 18%3%
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions near Kupiansk following Russian infiltration missions, indicating ongoing contested control and Ukrainian resistance preventing full Russian capture, which kept market prices low.
Russian Monthly Territorial Gains Slip Into Negative as Ukrainian Counterattacks Succeed
December 31 drops to 11%7%
DeepState and ISW reported that Russian net territorial gains in Ukraine turned negative in May 2026, highlighting the failure of the Russian spring offensive and the success of Ukrainian clearing operations in areas like Kupiansk.
Don's Weekly reports Russian military overstating Kupiansk capture claims
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Analysis highlighted that Russian military personnel consistently exaggerated their control over Kupiansk, with infiltration teams mistaken for full capture. This reinforced skepticism about Russian control and contributed to market price declines.
ISW sees continued Russian infiltrations but no advance near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 1%2%
ISW’s June 1 assessment noted Russian infiltration missions northeast and southeast of Kupiansk but no territorial gain. The report reinforced the view that Russia was unable to seize the town, pushing the “June 30” odds down to historic lows.
Ukrainian forces hit Russian infiltration attempts around Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 12%15%
ISW’s June 1 report documented Ukrainian strikes on Russian infiltration attempts northeast and southeast of Kupiansk, showing that Russian forces were still only conducting limited raids rather than seizing territory. This reinforced market expectations that Russia would not capture the whole municipality, pushing the probability down to single‑digit levels (≈12 %).
ISW reports Russian forces gained minimal territory in May 2026, Ukrainian forces halt offensive
June 30 dips to 1%1%
ISW assessed that Russian forces gained control of only 40.64 square kilometers between December 2025 and May 2026, with Ukrainian forces largely halting the Russian offensive. This confirmed the stagnation of Russian advances near Kupiansk, further reducing market confidence for June 30.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 dips to 17%4%
Reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts. Ukrainian counteroffensives and strikes on Russian logistics have reduced Russian offensive capabilities, further diminishing the likelihood of Russian capture of Kupiansk by the end of 2026, reflected in the market's low price for the December 31 outcome.
ISW reports Russian forces made minimal territorial gains in May 2026
December 31 drops to 11%7%
A source affiliated with Ukrainian military intelligence reported that Russian forces occupied only 14 additional square kilometers in May 2026, a fraction of previous years' gains. ISW assessed Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April and minimal gains in May, indicating stalled offensive including around Kupiansk.
Military Assessments Show Russian Spring-Summer Offensive Largely Halted by Ukraine
December 31 drops to 18%10%
Assessments showed that Russian forces gained control of or infiltrated only a tiny fraction of territory compared to the previous year, confirming a major slowdown in their offensive capabilities.
Assessments Confirm Ukrainian Forces Have Largely Halted Russia's Spring-Summer Offensive
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Military assessments showed that Ukrainian forces successfully halted the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, with Russia gaining only a fraction of the territory it did in the previous year and experiencing net negative territorial gains in May.
ISW reports Russian forces suffered net territorial losses in April 2026
December 31 drops to 18%9%
ISW assessed that Russian forces lost territory in April 2026 and that their advances in May were minimal compared to 2025, indicating a stalled offensive. This assessment further reduced market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.
Ukrainian forces clear Russian infiltrators near Kupiansk, strike Russian positions
On June 1, Ukrainian forces struck Russian positions northeast and southeast of Kupiansk and cleared Novoplatonivka of Russian infiltrators, demonstrating continued Ukrainian control and resistance to Russian advances, contributing to low market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports Russian infiltration missions near Kupiansk but no full control
Geolocated footage showed Russian infiltration attempts near Kupiansk but Ukrainian forces striking back, indicating ongoing contestation rather than Russian capture, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian control.
Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Ukrainian military sources confirmed full control of Kupiansk with Russian infiltration attempts failing. This official confirmation reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Reports confirm only isolated Russian groups remain in Kupiansk without stable control
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Ukrainian military observers reported that only isolated Russian groups remain in Kupiansk at specific locations, with no stable control. This reinforced the assessment that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk, pushing market prices down further.
Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 18%5%
Ukrainian forces confirmed full control of Kupiansk, with Russian troops only attempting small infiltration groups that were largely unsuccessful. This confirmation solidified market expectations that Russia would not capture all of Kupiansk by the end of 2025.
ISW Reports Only Isolated Russian Infiltrators Remain in Kupiansk Without Stable Control
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Military updates confirmed that Russian forces continued to struggle to advance in the Kupiansk direction, with only isolated groups remaining in specific buildings without stable control.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in northern Kupiansk, confirming control
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in northern Kupiansk, with reports that only isolated Russian groups remain, confirming Ukrainian control and diminishing chances of Russian capture.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 13%5%
Footage published on May 30 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Kupiansk after Russian infiltration missions, with reports indicating only isolated Russian groups remain without stable control. This reinforced the view that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk.
Russian military claims capture of Kindrashivka near Kupiansk
June 30 drops to 2%5%
On May 30, Russian military claimed that the 121st Motor Rifle Regiment captured Kindrashivka, a village near Kupiansk, indicating localized Russian gains but not full control of Kupiansk municipality. This claim did not translate into full capture of Kupiansk, influencing market prices downward.
Russia announces capture of Kindrashivka near Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 23%4%
Russia claimed the capture of the nearby village of Kindrashivka, a key foothold for an approach to Kupiansk. The claim briefly lifted market confidence for a Russian victory on December 31, but the lack of corroborating ISW map changes caused the odds to retreat within days.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk amid Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 18%9%
Reports confirmed that Ukrainian forces fully control Kupiansk despite Russian attempts to infiltrate the city in small groups. Ukrainian counterattacks and strikes against Russian positions continued, reinforcing Ukrainian control and reducing the likelihood of Russian capture by the end of 2026.
Russian Forces Claim Capture of Kindrashivka Near Kupiansk
June 30 rises to 3%1%
The Russian military claimed to have captured the village of Kindrashivka, northwest of Kupiansk, in an effort to secure a foothold for future attacks on the city.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian strikes on Russian positions in northern Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 18%10%
Footage published on May 30 showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in northern Kupiansk after Russian infiltration missions. This confirmed ongoing Ukrainian resistance and lack of stable Russian control, further lowering market confidence for December 31.
ISW confirms only minor Russian infiltration in Kupiansk, no full capture
ISW assessment on May 29 confirmed Russian forces do not hold consolidated positions within Kupiansk, with only a few infiltrators remaining. This official confirmation reinforced market skepticism about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by the end of 2026, reflected in the low market prices.
ISW reveals Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming Kupiansk capture
December 31 plunges to 11%19%
ISW exposed that Russian command was misreporting control of Kupiansk, with maps showing areas never captured. This cognitive warfare effort contrasted with on-the-ground realities of Ukrainian control, undermining Russian claims and pushing market prices down.
ISW reports Putin shown false frontline maps as Russia hides slowing offensive
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
ISW reported on May 29 that Putin was shown exaggerated frontline maps, including false claims of Kupiansk capture, which likely led to unrealistic expectations and demands, while the actual Russian offensive effectiveness declined, impacting market confidence negatively.
ISW reveals Russian generals feed Kremlin false maps exaggerating territorial gains near Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 14%37%
ISW reported that Russian command misreported the Kupiansk sector for months, showing towns as captured that were not, misleading Kremlin leadership and masking a steep slowdown in actual advances. This revelation caused a sharp drop in market confidence for the December 31 outcome.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis amid slow progress
December 31 drops to 42%9%
On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Kupiansk axis, reflecting attempts to match reported territorial gains with actual ground control. However, ISW noted a steep slowdown and inflated Russian claims, indicating limited real progress in capturing Kupiansk.
Russian MoD claims villages near Kupiansk captured, ISW finds no evidence
December 31 drops to 12%6%
The Defense Ministry claimed capture of several villages near Kupiansk, but ISW noted no evidence, prompting market participants to view these claims as propaganda and lower the “December 31” probability.
Leaked map reveals Russian generals falsely claim capturing towns including Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 26%24%
Leaked maps showed Russian generals feeding the Kremlin false information about capturing towns like Kupiansk, which were never fully taken. Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances possibly to align ground reality with false reports, highlighting Russian setbacks and slowing advances, reducing market confidence in Russian capture.
ISW exposes false Russian claims of capturing Kupiansk territory
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
ISW revealed that Russian generals provided the Kremlin with inflated maps claiming control of towns including Kupiansk that were never fully captured. This exposed the gap between Russian claims and reality, reinforcing market skepticism and contributing to the decline in the probability of Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.
ISW reports Russian generals misreporting Kupiansk sector gains
December 31 plunges to 28%23%
ISW revealed that Russian military command had been exaggerating territorial control in the Kupiansk sector, with no evidence of Russian forces entering key towns by late May. This exposed inflated claims and slowed advances, undermining confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.
Leaked Russian map falsely claims control of towns including Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 23%4%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map was found to falsely claim control of Kupiansk and other towns, with no Russian presence detected in key areas. This further discredited Russian claims and reinforced market skepticism about Russia capturing Kupiansk.
ISW exposes Russian false claims of capturing towns near Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 27%19%
On May 29, 2026, ISW revealed that Russian generals had been feeding the Kremlin false maps claiming capture of towns near Kupiansk that were never actually taken. This disclosure undermined confidence in Russian advances and caused market prices for full capture to drop sharply.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming Kupiansk control
December 31 plunges to 12%19%
ISW assessed that Russian command misreported control of Kupiansk for months, with Russian claims of holding large parts of the city disproven by Ukrainian clearing operations, indicating Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk municipality.
Leaked Maps Reveal Russian Generals Feed Kremlin False Picture of Frontline Advances
December 31 plunges to 27%18%
Reports emerged that Russian military commanders have been misreporting the Kupiansk sector for months, presenting exaggerated maps to Putin that claim control over areas they have not captured.
ISW reveals Russian map falsely shows Kupiansk under Russian control
December 31 drops to 18%9%
ISW published a piece titled “Russian generals feed the Kremlin a false picture” showing that Russian maps still marked Kupiansk as captured while field reports showed no Russian presence. The exposure of the mismatch caused a sharp decline in market confidence, pulling the price down to 18 % on May 31.
ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate territorial gains near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 45%6%
ISW published analysis revealing that Russian military command has been providing inflated maps to Kremlin, falsely claiming capture of towns near Kupiansk that were never taken. This exposed a steep slowdown in Russian advances and undermined confidence in Russia capturing Kupiansk fully by year-end.
ISW reveals Russian generals misreport Kupiansk control to Kremlin
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
ISW reported on May 28 that Russian military command exaggerated territorial control in Kupiansk, feeding false maps to Putin and creating a misleading perception of frontline advances, which contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture of Kupiansk by year-end.
Leaked Russian map exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk, ISW highlights false reporting
December 31 plunges to 28%22%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map falsely claimed control of towns including Kupiansk, while ISW confirmed Russian forces had not entered or held significant parts of Kupiansk. This exposed Russian command misinformation and further reduced market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
ISW Exposes Pattern of Exaggerated Russian Claims in Kupiansk Sector
December 31 drops to 27%6%
ISW detailed how Russian commanders, including Gerasimov, repeatedly lied about capturing Kupiansk, leading to a mismatch between actual battlefield reality and the Kremlin's maps.
ISW reveals Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control amid slow advances
June 30 dips to 3%2%
ISW reported that Russian military command continued exaggerated claims about control in Kupiansk despite evidence of limited Russian presence and slow territorial gains. Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis, reflecting attempts to match ground reality with inflated reports, undermining market confidence.
Leaked Russian MoD Maps Reveal Systematic Exaggeration of Battlefield Advances
December 31 drops to 18%9%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map and subsequent ISW analysis revealed that Russian generals had been feeding the Kremlin highly exaggerated maps claiming control over areas like Kupiansk that they had never consolidated.
Putin expresses belief in capturing Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026, but Kupiansk remains contested
December 31 drops to 18%9%
Despite Putin's confidence in capturing Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Fall 2026, ISW assessments and battlefield realities showed slow Russian advances and continued Ukrainian control in Kupiansk. Russian military command's exaggerated claims about Kupiansk contrasted with evidence of Ukrainian control, leading to further market price declines for full Russian capture by December 31.
Belousov orders faster Russian pushes in Kupiansk area amid map‑claim controversy
December 31 drops to 27%6%
On May 28 ISW reported that Russian Defense Minister Belousov ordered the Western Grouping to accelerate advances in Kupiansk, Borova and Lyman. The order, combined with widespread criticism of Kremlin‑inflated maps, highlighted a disconnect between Russian ambitions and on‑ground reality, causing a sharp price fall from 33 % to 27 % and a later trough.
ISW reports Russian military exaggerations about Kupiansk control
December 31 plunges to 27%17%
ISW reported that Russian military command has exaggerated their control over Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces having largely liberated the town by late 2025 and continuing to eliminate remaining Russian infiltrators. This undermined confidence in Russian claims and contributed to the market price decline.
ISW Reports Russian Military Command Continues Exaggerated Claims of Control in Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 45%6%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces had largely liberated Kupiansk by late December 2025 and were eliminating remaining infiltrators, despite ongoing false claims of Russian control.
Reports Reveal Russian Military Command Exaggerated Kupiansk Successes to Putin
December 31 plunges to 26%20%
Reports from the Financial Times and ISW detailed how Russian generals systematically lied to Vladimir Putin about capturing Kupiansk, masking a steep slowdown in their actual battlefield progress.
ISW Assesses Russian Forces No Longer Maintain Positions in Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces had likely lost all positions inside Kupiansk after failing to support their isolated infiltration groups, triggering a sharp drop in the market's 'Yes' probability.
Belousov orders rapid push on Kupiansk axis
December 31 drops to 42%9%
Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances in the Kupiansk, Borova and Lyman axes. The directive was interpreted as a push to force the battlefield to match optimistic Russian maps, lifting the “December 31” probability again before it fell sharply later in May.
Leaked Russian map exaggerates control in Kupiansk area, ISW reports
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
ISW reported that Russian generals provided the Kremlin with inflated maps claiming towns like Kupiansk were captured when they were not, masking a steep slowdown in Russian advances. This revelation undermined confidence in Russian territorial gains and contributed to a sharp market price drop for the December 31 outcome.
Leaked Russian Military Maps Expose Exaggerated Claims of Advances
December 31 plunges to 26%24%
Reports revealed that Russian generals were feeding the Kremlin highly inflated maps claiming control over areas like Kupiansk that they had never actually captured.
ISW reports Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances near Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 11%1%
Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances along Kupiansk axis, likely to match inflated claims of control, but ISW noted a steep slowdown and limited actual territorial gains, indicating weak Russian position.
ISW highlights Russian military command's inflated claims on Kupiansk amid slowing offensive
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
ISW analysis on May 28 emphasized that Russian military command continued exaggerated claims about Kupiansk control despite Ukrainian forces largely liberating the town, contributing to market skepticism and price declines for Russian capture outcomes.
ISW reports Russian generals feeding Kremlin false maps claiming towns never captured
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
ISW revealed that Russian military command exaggerated territorial control near Kupiansk, with no Russian presence in key nearby villages as of May 28. This exposed the gap between Russian claims and battlefield reality, undermining confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk.
Leaked Russian MoD Map Exposes Exaggerated Territorial Claims in Kupiansk Sector
December 31 plunges to 27%18%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map and subsequent ISW analysis revealed that Russian military commanders had been systematically misreporting and exaggerating their advances in the Kupiansk sector to the Kremlin, masking a steep slowdown in their offensive.
ISW and Russian milbloggers report Kremlin exaggerates Russian control in Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 12%39%
ISW and Russian milbloggers criticized Kremlin and military command for overstating Russian territorial control in Kupiansk, with evidence showing Ukrainian forces largely liberated the town and Russian advances slowed drastically in 2026. This further diminished market confidence in Russian capture.
FT: Putin believes Russia can take all of Donetsk and Luhansk by fall 2026
December 31 surges to 51%24%
The FT reported that sources close to Putin said Russia aimed to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk by fall 2026, implying an aggressive push in the east that raised the probability of a Kupiansk capture, pushing the price back up to 51 % on May 28.
Sweden pledges 36 Gripen fighters and €2.9 bn to Ukraine
December 31 plunges to 12%39%
Sweden announced a major weapons package worth €2.9 bn, including 36 Gripen fighters for Ukraine. The boost in Ukrainian air‑defence capability made a Russian offensive on Kupiansk appear less likely, contributing to the price slide from 51 % to the low‑teens later in the week.
Financial Times reports Putin believes Russian forces can capture Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026
December 31 plunges to 33%17%
On May 28, FT reported Putin's belief in capturing all of Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026, but ISW noted slow Russian advances and unclear prospects for such gains, reflecting broader doubts about Russian offensive success including in Kupiansk, influencing market prices downward.
Putin believes Russian forces can capture Donetsk and Luhansk by Fall 2026
December 31 plunges to 28%16%
According to Financial Times sources, Putin expects Russian forces to capture all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts by Fall 2026, but ISW assessments show slow Russian advances, casting doubt on this timeline and impacting market confidence in Kupiansk capture by year-end.
Russian military command exaggerates advances in Kupiansk area amid Ukrainian control
December 31 dips to 26%1%
Despite Russian claims of advances and orders to increase offensive pace near Kupiansk, ISW reports confirm Ukrainian control with only limited Russian infiltrators remaining. Russian military command's misinformation likely misleads strategic expectations, reducing market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
Russian Defense Minister orders accelerated advances along Kupiansk axis
December 31 drops to 46%5%
On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances along the Kupiansk axis. This was likely an attempt to improve Russian territorial gains to match inflated reports, but ISW noted a steep slowdown in actual advances, reflecting limited Russian progress in capturing Kupiansk.
Leaked Russian MoD Map Reveals Exaggerated Territorial Claims
December 31 plunges to 27%17%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map dated April 9 revealed that Russian commanders had been systematically exaggerating their advances to the Kremlin, including false claims of capturing Kupiansk.
Russian military command continues exaggerated claims about Kupiansk control
December 31 plunges to 28%22%
Despite evidence of Ukrainian control, Russian military command exaggerated claims of control in Kupiansk. This discrepancy undermined market confidence in a Russian capture by December 31, contributing to a sharp price decline.
ISW: Russian order to accelerate Kupiansk advances unaccompanied by ground gains
June 30 dips to 2%4%
ISW’s May 28 assessment noted that Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered faster advances, but there was no evidence of actual territorial gains around Kupiansk. The disconnect between command promises and field reality caused a brief price dip from 6 % to 2 % as traders discounted the likelihood of a full capture.
Leaked Russian Defense Ministry map reveals exaggerated Russian control near Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 26%30%
A leaked Russian Ministry of Defense map dated April 9 was published, showing frontline positions that ISW assessed as exaggerated, with Russian forces not having fully captured Kupiansk. Russian military command was criticized for misreporting the Kupiansk sector, contributing to market skepticism about Russian advances and causing a sharp drop in the December 31 outcome price.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances on Kupiansk axis amid stalled progress
December 31 plunges to 27%23%
On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered acceleration of advances along the Kupiansk axis, likely attempting to match ground realities with inflated reports. ISW noted Russian advances in 2026 had sharply slowed, reflecting operational difficulties and undermining capture prospects.
ISW reports Russian generals exaggerate control in Kupiansk area
December 31 plunges to 11%17%
ISW highlighted that Russian military command exaggerated territorial control in Kupiansk, feeding false information to Kremlin and overstating advances. This misrepresentation contributed to market skepticism about Russia's ability to capture all of Kupiansk by the resolution dates.
Russian Defense Minister orders increased offensive pace near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 21%6%
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western Grouping of Forces to accelerate advances in the Kupiansk area, reflecting pressure to convert claimed gains into actual control. Despite this, Russian milbloggers complained about exaggerated reports, indicating operational difficulties and contributing to market doubts.
Geolocated footage shows limited Russian infiltration in Kupiansk but Ukrainian forces maintain control
December 31 drops to 18%9%
Footage showed a single Russian servicemember in northern Kupiansk after infiltration, but Ukrainian forces held positions and eliminated infiltrators. This confirmed Russia had not captured Kupiansk, further reducing market confidence.
ISW confirms only limited Russian infiltrators remain in Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 18%9%
Geolocated footage showed a single Russian servicemember operating in northern Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and eliminating infiltration routes, reinforcing that Russia had not captured the city.
ISW reports only limited Russian infiltrators remain in Kupiansk; Ukrainian forces maintain control
December 31 drops to 18%9%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian statements showed only a very limited number of Russian infiltrators in Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and eliminating infiltration attempts. This diminished market confidence in Russian capture by year-end.
ISW confirms Ukrainian control of Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 12%6%
ISW and Ukrainian sources confirmed Ukrainian forces maintain positions in Kupiansk and have cut off Russian infiltration routes, with only limited Russian presence remaining, undermining Russian capture claims.
Russian strikes target Kupiansk amid ongoing contested control
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Russian forces conducted strikes on Kupiansk and surrounding areas, indicating continued attempts to pressure Ukrainian positions. However, these strikes did not translate into territorial gains, reflecting the stalemate and Ukrainian defensive resilience.
Ukrainian forces eliminate remaining Russian infiltrators in Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 26%1%
Geolocated footage and Ukrainian statements confirmed that only a very limited number of Russian infiltrators remained in Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces maintaining control and eliminating infiltration routes. This solidified the market's negative outlook on Russian capture chances.
Ukrainian forces hunt Russian soldiers emerging from pipelines near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 14%12%
In late May, Ukrainian forces reported that Russian soldiers attempting to infiltrate Kupiansk through underground pipelines had very short survival times, indicating effective Ukrainian defense and preventing Russian consolidation of the city.
Report on brutal fighting and Russian infiltration attempts through pipelines near Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 28%22%
Ukrainian forces described intense combat against Russian troops using underground pipelines to infiltrate Kupiansk, with Russian soldiers having very short survival times. This highlights ongoing contested control and challenges for Russian forces to establish firm presence in Kupiansk.
Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration
December 31 drops to 11%7%
Ukrainian military sources confirmed full control over Kupiansk, denying Russian claims of control and highlighting ongoing Russian infiltration attempts that are being repelled, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture.
ISW confirms Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 drops to 12%6%
Geolocated footage and official Ukrainian statements showed Ukrainian forces holding Kupiansk and eliminating Russian infiltrators. Russian attempts to infiltrate were unsuccessful, reinforcing the view that Russia had not captured the city, leading to further market price declines.
Russian MFA warns of systematic strikes on Kyiv amid ongoing conflict
December 31 dips to 14%4%
Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs warned of systematic strikes on Ukrainian defense facilities in Kyiv, reflecting ongoing military pressure but unrelated to territorial gains in Kupiansk, contributing to overall conflict context.
Indicators show Russian command may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 27%1%
ISW reported redeployment of Russian 272nd Tank Division elements from Kupiansk direction to Lyman, suggesting Russia deprioritized capturing Kupiansk. This diminished market expectations for Russian capture by end of 2026.
Russian Command May Have Abandoned Efforts to Seize Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 18%8%
ISW reported that elements of the Russian 272nd Tank Division were redeployed away from the Kupiansk direction to the Lyman direction, indicating that the Russian military command may have abandoned its offensive to capture Kupiansk.
ISW Reports Russian Command May Have Abandoned Efforts to Seize Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 27%18%
Indicators that elements of the Russian 272th Tank Division were redeployed away from the Kupiansk sector to the Lyman direction suggested that the Russian command had abandoned its immediate efforts to capture Kupiansk.
Russian forces redeploy from Kupiansk area, indicating abandonment of capture efforts
December 31 plunges to 28%28%
On May 25, ISW reported indicators that elements of the Russian 272th Tank Division were redeploying away from the Kupiansk area to other fronts, suggesting that Russia may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk. This contributed to a sharp decline in market prices for Russian capture by December 31.
ISW indicates Russian command may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 18%10%
ISW collected indicators that Russian tank division elements near Kupiansk were redeployed to Lyman direction, suggesting Russian command abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk, reducing likelihood of full capture.
ISW confirms Russian redeployment from Kupiansk area, indicating abandonment of capture efforts
December 31 plunges to 27%19%
Further ISW reports confirmed redeployment of Russian 272nd Tank Division elements from near Kupiansk to Lyman, reinforcing the assessment that Russia had abandoned attempts to seize Kupiansk. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
Russian forces redeploy units away from Kupiansk, indicating abandonment of capture efforts
December 31 plunges to 27%19%
ISW reported that elements of the Russian 272nd Tank Division near Kupiansk were redeploying to the Lyman direction, suggesting the Russian command may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk, weakening prospects for full capture.
ISW reports Russian forces redeploying away from Kupiansk, abandoning efforts to seize city
December 31 drops to 21%6%
ISW reported that elements of Russian forces near Kupiansk were redeploying to other fronts, indicating that Russian command may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk at this time. This suggested a reduced chance of Russian capture, impacting market prices downward.
Russian forces redeploy away from Kupiansk, indicating abandonment of capture efforts
Reports on May 25 indicated elements of the Russian 272th Tank Division near Kupiansk were redeployed to Lyman direction, suggesting Russian command may have abandoned efforts to seize Kupiansk. This further reduced likelihood of full Russian control by year-end.
Russian infantry geolocated in northeast Kupiansk amid ongoing attacks
June 30 dips to 2%4%
On May 24, reports indicated Russian infantry presence in the northeast of Kupiansk itself, showing Russian attempts to infiltrate the city. However, the situation remained tense without decisive Russian control, reflecting continued contestation of the area.
Russian infantry geolocated in northeast Kupiansk amid ongoing attacks
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Geolocated video footage confirmed Russian infantry presence in northeast Kupiansk and ongoing attacks east of the Oskil River, indicating continued Russian pressure but no decisive control. The tense situation and lack of Russian territorial consolidation contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture.
Russian forces continue limited infiltration missions near Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 27%1%
Russian forces conducted infiltration missions near Kupiansk but failed to make significant territorial gains, with Ukrainian forces striking back effectively. This ongoing stalemate contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture.
Ukrainian forces strike Russian positions in Kupiansk after infiltration attempts
Geolocated footage showed Ukrainian forces striking Russian positions in central Kupiansk following Russian infiltration missions. This confirmed ongoing Ukrainian control and active defense against Russian attempts to regain territory in the city.
Russian military command reallocates forces away from Kupiansk area
December 31 dips to 26%2%
Reports indicated that Russian military command planned to move over 1,000 servicemembers from near Kupiansk to the Slovyansk direction, suggesting abandonment of efforts to seize Kupiansk at this time. This strategic shift signaled reduced Russian focus on capturing Kupiansk, reinforcing market skepticism about full capture by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Maintain Full Control of Kupiansk Against Infiltration
A Ukrainian military commander confirmed that Ukrainian forces remain in full control of Kupiansk, successfully detecting and eliminating small Russian groups attempting to infiltrate the city.
Ukrainian forces seize tactical initiative across frontline
June 30 dips to 2%3%
General Oleksandr Syrskyi announced Ukrainian offensive actions exceeded Russian assaults, marking a decisive shift in battlefield momentum.
ISW assesses Kupiansk as contested 'gray zone' with no firm Russian control
June 30 dips to 2%3%
By May 20, ISW reported Kupiansk as a contested area with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces holding firm positions, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks and clearing operations. This assessment contributed to the market's decline in probability for full Russian capture by June 30 and December 31.
Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control
December 31 drops to 45%5%
The Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces do not have nearly the presence in Kupiansk as in January 2026, describing it as a contested gray zone. ISW adjusted its control assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks, reducing confidence in Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian drones inflict 19,203 Russian casualties in May
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Ukrainian drones struck 19,203 Russian personnel in the first 19 days of May, exceeding Russia's recruitment rate and demonstrating Ukraine's growing tactical advantage.
ISW says Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
ISW’s May 20 offensive‑campaign assessment reported that Ukrainian counter‑attacks had recaptured much of Kupiansk since November 2025 and that Russian forces were only present in a “gray‑zone”. The assessment lowered expectations that Russia would take the whole municipality, driving the market down from the 51 % level on May 28 to the 27 % trough on May 29.
Ukrainian Counterattacks Recapture Much of Kupiansk, Seizing Tactical Initiative
ISW reported that Ukrainian counterattacks successfully recaptured much of the eastern city of Kupiansk, marking some of the largest territorial gains for Kyiv since the Kursk operation.
Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with no firm Russian control
December 31 dips to 49%2%
A Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested area with neither side holding firm positions, and ISW adjusted its assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks and absence of Russian control. This indicated Russia had not captured Kupiansk, lowering market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
ISW reports Russian forces abandoning efforts to seize Kupiansk, redeploying key units
December 31 drops to 46%5%
ISW reported that elements of the Russian 272nd Motorized Rifle Regiment and tank regiments were being transferred away from Kupiansk to the Lyman direction, indicating a likely abandonment of efforts to capture Kupiansk. This reduced confidence in Russian capture prospects caused market prices to drop.
ISW reports Kupiansk largely contested with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing
December 31 dips to 44%2%
On May 20, ISW assessed Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces holding firm positions, reflecting ongoing Ukrainian clearing operations and reduced Russian presence. This assessment further decreased market confidence in Russian full capture by December 31.
Ukrainian counterattacks reduce Russian presence in Kupiansk to contested gray zone
December 31 plunges to 27%19%
By May 20, Ukrainian commanders described Kupiansk as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. ISW adjusted maps to depict Ukrainian counterattacks and clearing operations, signaling diminished Russian control and undermining prospects of full capture.
ISW describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with reduced Russian presence
December 31 drops to 44%7%
ISW reported that Russian forces no longer held firm positions in Kupiansk, describing it as a contested gray zone with significant Ukrainian clearing operations. This diminished the likelihood of Russia fully capturing Kupiansk by the resolution date, reflected in declining market prices for the December 31 outcome.
Ukrainian commander confirms Kupiansk largely contested, Russian presence minimal
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
A Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither side holding firm positions, and noted Russian forces do not have nearly the presence they had earlier in 2026. This assessment led to market doubts about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by year-end.
Ukrainian commander describes Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence
June 30 dips to 5%1%
A Ukrainian commander stated that Russian forces have significantly reduced presence in Kupiansk compared to January 2026, describing the area as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. ISW adjusted its control assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks, further reducing likelihood of full Russian capture.
Ukrainian commander states Kupiansk largely contested gray zone with limited Russian presence
A Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested area with neither side holding firm positions, and ISW adjusted maps to reflect Ukrainian counterattacks and clearing operations, signaling Russian forces had not secured the city.
ISW says Kupiansk remains a contested gray‑zone with Ukrainian counter‑attacks
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
ISW’s May 20 assessment described Kupiansk as a contested “gray zone” with Ukrainian counter‑attacks gaining ground and no firm Russian presence, contradicting Russian claims of control. The report signaled a slowdown in Russian advance, prompting traders to cut the probability of a full Russian capture, driving the market down from about 51 % on May 27 to the low‑30 % range.
ISW Depicts Kupiansk Under Ukrainian Control Following Clearing Operations
December 31 plunges to 28%23%
The Institute for the Study of War adjusted its maps to show Kupiansk under Ukrainian control, noting that Russian forces lacked a firm presence and were reduced to symbolic flag-raising stunts.
ISW Reports Ukrainian Forces Cleared Most Russian Positions in Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
The Institute for the Study of War adjusted its terrain assessment to depict Kupiansk as under Ukrainian counterattacks, noting that Ukrainian forces had cleared most Russian positions and that Russia was redeploying troops away from the area due to heavy losses.
ISW maps Kupiansk as contested ‘gray zone’ after Ukrainian clearing operations
June 30 dips to 2%1%
The May 20 ISW update described Kupiansk as a “contested gray zone” with Russian presence far weaker than in January and highlighted Ukrainian clearing operations. This reinforced market sentiment that Russian capture was unlikely, pushing the Yes price down to 2 % by the end of May.
Ukrainian forces maintain full control over Kupiansk despite Russian infiltration attempts
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
Ukrainian commanders confirmed full control of Kupiansk, describing Russian forces as limited to small infiltration groups using underground pipelines. This contradicted Russian claims of control and led to a significant drop in market confidence for Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian Forces Eliminate Remaining Russian Sabotage Elements in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 2%1%
Ukrainian commanders confirmed that the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements operating inside Kupiansk were killed or captured, leaving the city as a contested gray zone with no firm Russian presence.
ISW notes Russian forces largely absent in Kupiansk, area contested by Ukrainian counterattacks
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
On May 20, ISW highlighted that Russian forces had minimal presence in Kupiansk compared to earlier in the year, describing the area as a contested zone with ongoing Ukrainian clearing operations. This assessment contributed to a sharp decline in market prices for Russian capture by December 31.
ISW Adjusts Map to Depict Kupiansk Under Ukrainian Control Following Clearing Operations
December 31 drops to 45%6%
The Institute for the Study of War adjusted its control-of-terrain assessment to show Kupiansk as under Ukrainian control, noting that Ukrainian forces had cleared out Russian infiltrators and that Russia lacked a firm presence.
Ukrainian commander states Kupiansk is a contested 'gray zone'
June 30 dips to 2%1%
On May 20, a Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as largely contested with neither side holding firm positions, and ISW adjusted its assessment to depict Ukrainian counterattacks and absence of firm Russian control. This further decreased market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports Russian forces limited to infiltration and cognitive warfare in Kupiansk area
December 31 drops to 46%5%
ISW reported that Russian forces were conducting infiltration and flag-raising operations to create false impressions of control in Kupiansk, while transferring key units away from the area, indicating abandonment of efforts to seize Kupiansk. This lowered confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian Commanders Confirm Full Control of Kupiansk
Ukrainian military officials and the ISW reported that Ukrainian forces successfully cleared remaining Russian sabotage elements and maintained full control of Kupiansk, reducing it to a contested gray zone on the outskirts.
Ukrainian company commander reports Russian sabotage elements eliminated in Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 18%9%
On May 20, 2026, a Ukrainian company commander stated that remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk were killed or captured by May 18, describing the city as a contested gray zone with no firm Russian control. This further reduced market belief in Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian forces eliminate remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 18%33%
A Ukrainian company commander reported that Ukrainian forces killed or captured the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk by May 18, describing the city as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. This indicated Ukraine's effective control and limited Russian presence, reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by December 31.
Ukrainian commander reports Kupiansk as contested gray zone with limited Russian presence
June 30 dips to 2%1%
A Ukrainian company commander stated that Russian forces do not have nearly the presence in Kupiansk as in January 2026, describing the city as a contested gray zone with neither side holding firm positions. Ukrainian forces reportedly killed or captured remaining Russian sabotage elements, indicating no full Russian control.
Ukrainian commander reports elimination of remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 42%9%
A Ukrainian company commander reported that as of May 18, Ukrainian forces had killed or captured the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements in Kupiansk, describing the area as a contested gray zone with no firm Russian control. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects by year-end.
Ukrainian Forces Clear Remaining Russian Sabotage Elements from Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 45%6%
A Ukrainian company commander reported that Ukrainian forces successfully killed or captured the remaining Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements operating inside Kupiansk as of May 18, reducing the Russian presence to a contested gray zone.
Ukrainian forces eliminate remaining Russian sabotage elements in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 2%1%
On May 19, a Ukrainian company commander reported that Ukrainian forces killed or captured the last Russian sabotage and reconnaissance elements operating in Kupiansk, with only small Russian groups occasionally infiltrating via underground pipelines but no sustained control.
Ukrainian forces advance in Kostyantynivka area near Kupiansk
Geolocated footage and reports indicate Ukrainian forces advanced and hold positions in areas near Kupiansk, including Illinivka and Kostyantynivka outskirts, demonstrating continued Ukrainian operational presence and contesting Russian control in the region.
Ukrainian forces conduct clearing operations in Kupiansk and surrounding areas
December 31 drops to 46%5%
Geolocated footage and reports in mid-May showed Ukrainian forces advancing and maintaining positions in areas near Kupiansk, including clearing operations in Kupiansk itself. The Ukrainian commander described Kupiansk as a contested "gray zone" with neither side holding firm positions, indicating no full Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian forces hold only limited infiltration in Kupiansk, no consolidated control
December 31 drops to 46%5%
ISW assessed that Russian forces do not hold consolidated positions within Kupiansk and only a few infiltrators remain, indicating that full capture is unlikely in the near term. This assessment contributed to declining market confidence in a December 31 capture.
Russian General Gerasimov claims Russian forces seized Kupiansk and advancing westward
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
Russian General Gerasimov publicly claimed that Russian forces had seized Kupiansk and were advancing westward, but these claims were contradicted by independent assessments and Ukrainian reports, leading to market skepticism and price declines.
Russian forces claim limited advances near Kupiansk but fail to secure key areas
December 31 dips to 46%4%
On May 16, Russian Defense Ministry claimed seizure of Kutkivka near Kupiansk, but ISW and geolocated footage showed only limited infiltration and no firm Russian control in Kupiansk or surrounding villages. This indicated Russian advances were minimal and contested, reducing confidence in full capture.
ISW reports Russian forces lack consolidated control in Kupiansk, only infiltrators remain
December 31 dips to 50%1%
ISW assessed that Russian forces do not hold consolidated positions within Kupiansk, with only a few infiltrators remaining. This indicated that full Russian capture was unlikely in the near term, impacting market confidence negatively for the December 31 outcome.
Russian forces claim limited gains near Kupiansk but fail to secure city
December 31 drops to 45%6%
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed seizure of Kutkivka north of Kupiansk, but ISW and other sources found no evidence of significant Russian control within Kupiansk, estimating only about 14% infiltration. Ukrainian forces actively repelled Russian infiltration attempts, maintaining control of the city. This undermined market confidence in a full Russian capture by year-end.
Russian military falsely claims advances west of Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 46%5%
Russian Chief of the General Staff Gerasimov claimed advances west of Kupiansk, implying control of the city, but ISW and independent analysts assessed these claims as false. Russian forces have not seized Kupiansk and lack the capacity to make significant advances there.
ISW reveals Russian generals misreporting control of Kupiansk area
June 30 dips to 2%4%
ISW reported that Russian Defense Minister ordered acceleration of advances near Kupiansk, but Russian command had been inflating territorial control claims. ISW found only limited Russian infiltration in Kupiansk and surrounding towns, contradicting Kremlin claims and signaling a stalled offensive, which caused market prices for June 30 to drop further.
Russian General Gerasimov falsely claims advances west of Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 46%5%
Russian Chief of General Staff Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces were advancing west of Kupiansk, implying full capture, but this was contradicted by Ukrainian and independent sources showing no such control. This false claim contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture prospects.
ISW Debunks Russian Claims of Advances West of Kupiansk
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian claims of capturing Kupiansk and advancing west of the city were false, noting that Russian forces do not hold fortified positions inside the municipality.
ISW Refutes Russian Claims of Advancing West of Kupiansk
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces had only infiltrated a small fraction of Kupiansk and were not close to seizing the city, contradicting claims by Russian General Gerasimov.
Only ~100 Russian troops remain in Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces say
June 30 dips to 2%3%
RBC‑Ukraine quoted the head of the Joint Forces Group saying only about 100 Russian soldiers were inside Kupiansk, emphasizing that the city was not fully under Russian control. The clarification reinforced market pessimism, keeping the “Yes” probability near 2 %.
Ukrainian Forces Liberate Odradne in Kupiansk Direction
Ukraine's 129th Separate Heavy Mechanized Brigade pushed Russian forces out of the village of Odradne, demonstrating active Ukrainian counter-offensive capabilities near Kupiansk.
ISW reveals Russia is bluffing about control over Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 14%37%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Russian claims of full control over Kupiansk were false, with Ukrainian forces having liberated most of the city and continuing to push out Russian occupiers. This undermined market confidence in a Russian capture by year-end.
Russian forces conduct no assaults near Kupiansk amid ongoing Ukrainian control
On May 12, Ukrainian General Staff reported no Russian assault operations in the Kupiansk direction, with continued Ukrainian control and Russian forces limited to attacks on infrastructure rather than territorial advances.
Kremlin holds truncated Victory Day parade with no tanks
June 30 dips to 2%3%
Russia's truncated Victory Day parade with no tanks and only 10 foreign leaders signaled deteriorating military morale and a shift in strategic posture.
ISW reports Russian forces failed to maintain positions in Kupiansk after months of struggle
June 30 dips to 2%4%
ISW assessment indicated Russian forces likely do not maintain positions in Kupiansk after months of struggling to support isolated groups. Ukrainian forces have retained control, and Russian advances stalled with net territorial losses in April 2026, reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by deadline.
ISW highlights Ukrainian gains and Russian offensive stall in spring 2026
June 30 dips to 3%2%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces made their most significant gains since August 2024, including liberating large parts of Kupiansk, while Russian forces failed to make operationally significant advances and suffered heavy casualties. This reinforced market skepticism about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by the end of 2025.
Russian forces use ceasefire to regroup near Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces maintain control
June 30 dips to 3%3%
During the May 9-11 ceasefire, Russian forces reportedly used the pause to regroup and fortify positions near Kupiansk, while Ukrainian forces continued to hold the city. This stalemate reinforced market expectations that Russia would not capture all of Kupiansk by June 30, keeping prices low.
ISW says Russian advance in Kupiansk stalled in early May
June 30 drops to 5%5%
The ISW assessment on May 9 noted that Russian advances in the Kupiansk sector had stalled, with only limited infiltration, which drove the “June 30” probability down further.
Ukraine and Russia agree on three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange
June 30 dips to 2%1%
On May 8, Ukraine and Russia announced a three-day ceasefire and exchange of 1,000 prisoners each, temporarily halting hostilities including around Kupiansk. This reduced immediate chances of Russian capture and contributed to market decline in probability.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces largely control Kupiansk, Russian infiltration limited
June 30 dips to 3%2%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces have largely liberated Kupiansk and are eliminating remaining Russian infiltrators. Russian forces hold only limited positions on the outskirts, and the infiltration zone likely overestimates Russian presence. This indicated that Russia had not captured the city fully by early May.
ISW Reports Russian Forces Likely Do Not Maintain Positions in Kupiansk
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Russian forces failed to maintain their presence in Kupiansk after struggling to support a small, isolated group that had previously infiltrated the city.
ISW reports Russian infiltration zone overestimates Russian presence in Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 27%24%
ISW analysis indicated that Russian forces likely do not maintain enduring positions in central Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces eliminating Russian presence in the city center. This assessment reduced market confidence in Russian full capture by year-end.
ISW says Ukrainian counter‑attacks have pushed Russian forces into isolated pockets in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 2%4%
The ISW assessment published on May 8 reported that Ukrainian forces were conducting counter‑attacks in Kupiansk and that Russian troops were largely confined to a few isolated pockets, such as a hospital that had been destroyed. The assessment signaled a clear setback for Russian control of the municipality, prompting market participants to lower the probability of a full Russian capture.
ISW confirms no Russian control beyond Kupiansk Central District Hospital
December 31 dips to 50%1%
ISW reported on May 8 that there was no granular evidence of Russian control in central Kupiansk beyond the Central District Hospital, reinforcing the assessment that Russian forces had not captured the municipality. This likely suppressed market optimism for Russian capture by December 31.
ISW Reports Ukrainian Forces Likely Eliminated Remaining Russian Positions in Central Kupiansk
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Ukrainian forces successfully cleared out enduring Russian positions in central Kupiansk, indicating that the actual Russian presence was significantly overestimated.
Ukraine and Russia announce three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange
June 30 rises to 5%2%
On May 8, 2026, Ukraine and Russia agreed to a three-day ceasefire and a prisoner exchange, temporarily halting offensive operations near Kupiansk. This ceasefire limited immediate Russian advances and maintained the frontline status around Kupiansk.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions in central Kupiansk
December 31 plunges to 33%18%
ISW assessment on May 8 indicated that Russian infiltration zones in Kupiansk were overestimated and Ukrainian forces had eliminated lasting Russian presence in the city center, undermining Russian control claims and negatively impacting market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk.
ISW reports Russian infiltration overestimates in central Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces eliminate Russian positions
June 30 dips to 2%1%
ISW assessed that Russian infiltration zones in central Kupiansk were likely exaggerated and Ukrainian forces had eliminated enduring Russian positions in the city center, indicating no full Russian control. This assessment contributed to declining market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk by June 30.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces largely eliminated Russian positions in Kupiansk city center
December 31 plunges to 18%33%
By May 8, 2026, ISW reported that Ukrainian forces had likely eliminated enduring Russian positions in Kupiansk city center, indicating that Russia did not control the entire municipality. This significantly lowered market confidence in Russian capture by December 31.
Russian MoD claims Ukrainian drones and artillery continue after ceasefire
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Despite a unilateral Russian ceasefire, the MoD reported continued Ukrainian drone and artillery attacks, indicating ongoing combat intensity and challenging Russia's ability to achieve territorial consolidation.
Ukraine and Russia Agree to Three-Day Ceasefire and Prisoner Exchange
June 30 dips to 3%3%
The US, Ukraine, and Russia announced a three-day ceasefire and a major prisoner exchange, temporarily halting active combat operations across the front lines.
ISW reports intensified Ukrainian counterattacks and limited Russian gains in Kupiansk area
June 30 dips to 4%2%
The Institute for the Study of War noted that Ukrainian forces had liberated large portions of Kupiansk starting November 2025 and continued to conduct intensified strikes against Russian lines, while Russian advances stalled and suffered high casualties. This assessment reduced confidence in Russia fully capturing Kupiansk by the end of 2025, impacting the market price for the June 30 outcome.
ISW reports no significant Russian control gains in central Kupiansk as ceasefire begins
June 30 dips to 2%1%
ISW noted no granular evidence of Russian control beyond the Central District Hospital in Kupiansk as of May 8. A three-day ceasefire from May 9 to 11 was agreed, limiting offensive operations and indicating stalled Russian advances.
Ukraine, Russia agree on three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange amid ongoing conflict
On May 8, Ukraine and Russia announced a three-day ceasefire and prisoner exchange, reflecting a temporary pause in hostilities but no change in control of Kupiansk. This maintained the contested status and contributed to market uncertainty.
ISW reports Russian presence in Kupiansk overestimated; Ukrainian forces eliminated enduring Russian positions
June 30 drops to 6%6%
ISW assessment indicated that Russian infiltration zones in Kupiansk likely overestimate actual control, with Ukrainian forces eliminating enduring Russian positions in the city center. This confirmed that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk, negatively impacting market confidence.
ISW confirms no evidence of Russian control beyond Kupiansk hospital area
June 30 dips to 2%3%
ISW stated on May 8 that they had not observed evidence of Russian control beyond the Kupiansk Central District Hospital area, indicating Russian forces likely do not maintain positions in central Kupiansk. This contributed to the market price declining to 2% Yes.
ISW reports intensified Ukrainian strikes degrade Russian offensive capabilities near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 2%1%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces increased mid-range strikes against Russian logistics and military assets in occupied Ukraine since late 2025, intensifying in early 2026. These strikes degraded Russia's ability to conduct offensive operations, limiting Russian advances near Kupiansk and reducing market confidence in a full capture by June 30.
ISW confirms Kupiansk remains contested with no firm Russian control
June 30 dips to 5%1%
ISW's May 8 assessment confirmed that Russian forces had not secured full control of Kupiansk, with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing and the city largely a contested zone. This reinforced market skepticism about a full Russian capture by June 30.
Encircled Russian soldiers in Kupiansk hospital killed in Ukrainian airstrike
June 30 rises to 6%3%
A Russian milblogger reported that about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their last battle before being killed by a Ukrainian airstrike, implying Russian forces no longer hold central Kupiansk. This confirmed Ukrainian control over the city and diminished Russian chances of full capture.
Ukrainian airstrike destroys Russian-held Kupiansk hospital, ending encircled Russian resistance
June 30 dips to 3%2%
A Ukrainian airstrike on May 7 destroyed the Kupiansk City Hospital where about 20 encircled Russian soldiers had held out since December 2025. This implied Russian forces no longer held positions in central Kupiansk, reinforcing Ukrainian control of the city.
Ukrainian airstrike destroys Russian-held Kupiansk City Hospital, killing encircled Russian soldiers
December 31 plunges to 28%28%
A Ukrainian airstrike on May 7 destroyed the Kupiansk City Hospital where about 20 Russian soldiers had been encircled since December 2025, implying Russian forces no longer hold central Kupiansk. This event significantly reduced market confidence in a full Russian capture by December 31.
Last Encircled Russian Soldiers in Kupiansk Hospital Eliminated
June 30 rises to 6%3%
A Russian milblogger reported that the remaining group of roughly 20 Russian soldiers who had been encircled in the Kupiansk City Hospital since December 2025 were killed, meaning Russia no longer held positions in central Kupiansk.
Ukrainian airstrike destroys Kupiansk hospital, killing remaining Russian troops
June 30 dips to 2%4%
A Ukrainian milblogger reported that a group of about 20 Russian soldiers trapped in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their “last battle” after a Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the building, confirming that Russian forces had lost their last foothold inside the city. The news reinforced the perception that Russia could not yet capture the whole municipality and pushed prices sharply lower.
Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike
December 31 plunges to 27%19%
On May 7, a group of about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought until destroyed by a Ukrainian airstrike, implying Russian forces no longer held central Kupiansk positions, undermining Russian claims and causing market prices for capture to drop sharply.
Encircled Russian Soldiers Defeated at Kupiansk City Hospital
December 31 drops to 44%7%
A group of roughly 20 Russian soldiers who had been encircled in the Kupiansk City Hospital since December 2025 fought their last battle after a Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the hospital, signaling that Russian forces no longer held positions in central Kupiansk.
Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk hospital killed in Ukrainian airstrike
June 30 rises to 6%3%
A Russian milblogger reported on May 7 that about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital since December 2025 were killed in a Ukrainian airstrike, implying loss of Russian positions in central Kupiansk and continued Ukrainian control.
Encircled Russian Soldiers Wiped Out at Kupiansk City Hospital
June 30 rises to 5%2%
A Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the Kupiansk City Hospital, killing the last remaining group of encircled Russian soldiers who had held out since December 2025, signaling that Russia no longer holds positions in central Kupiansk.
Russian forces encircled in Kupiansk hospital fight last battle after Ukrainian airstrike
December 31 plunges to 26%16%
On May 7, a Russian milblogger reported that about 20 Russian soldiers encircled in Kupiansk City Hospital fought their last battle after a Ukrainian airstrike destroyed the hospital, implying Russian forces no longer held central Kupiansk positions, undermining Russian control claims.
Russian troops mass‑infiltrate Kupiansk axis ahead of expected spring offensive
December 31 rises to 6%3%
A brief uplift in the Yes price to 6 % on May 3 followed reports that Russian troops were again mass‑infiltrating the Kupiansk axis and that Ukrainian forces were preparing a counter‑offensive. The news was not enough to sustain higher odds, and the price fell back to 3 % by May 9.
Russian troops advance near Pishchane on Kupiansk axis
On May 6, Russian troops advanced near Pishchane village southeast of Kupiansk, indicating continued Russian pressure and attempts to infiltrate the area. However, these advances did not translate into full control of Kupiansk municipality, keeping market prices low for a full Russian capture by June 30.
Russian Forces Resume Pressure on Kupiansk After Winter Lull
June 30 surges to 26%20%
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces resumed active infiltration operations from the north and east of Kupiansk, taking advantage of spring foliage and poor weather that hindered Ukrainian drone operations.
Massive Russian drone and missile attacks on Ukrainian cities including Kupiansk sector
June 30 rises to 6%3%
On May 2, Russia launched a large-scale aerial attack involving about 268 drones and missiles targeting Ukrainian military and civilian infrastructure, including the Kupiansk sector. This intensified fighting but did not translate into full Russian control of Kupiansk, reflected in market price volatility.
ISW reports Russian forces suffered net territorial losses in April 2026
June 30 plunges to 6%20%
The Institute for the Study of War reported on May 2 that Russian forces suffered a net loss of territory in April 2026, including around Kupiansk, indicating stalled Russian advances and strengthening Ukrainian control. This caused a sharp drop in market price from 26% to 6%.
ISW reports Russian infiltration tactics exaggerate control near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 3%2%
On May 2, ISW noted that Russian infiltration tactics partly exaggerate their control of terrain near Kupiansk, with no evidence of full capture. The report highlighted the slowing Russian advance and Ukrainian resilience, leading to a further decline in market price for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian commander says Russian foothold in Kupiansk remains a contested gray zone
June 30 dips to 2%4%
The May 2 ISW assessment quoted a Ukrainian brigade commander describing Russian attempts to expand a foothold on the left bank of the Oskil River while Russian servicemen remained hidden in basements in Kupiansk. The description of a “gray zone” and limited Russian presence added to market doubts about a full capture, supporting the price decline.
ISW map revision on May 2 removes Kupiansk from Russian‑controlled area
December 31 dips to 3%2%
The ISW map update on May 2 clarified that no new territory in the Kupiansk municipality had turned red; the earlier “infiltration” artifacts were removed. The market responded with a sharp drop to 3 % Yes, indicating the market now believed a full capture unlikely before the deadline.
Kupiansk‑Vuzlovyi remains fully under Ukrainian control, EMPR reports
June 30 dips to 2%3%
EMPR.media reported that Kupiansk‑Vuzlovyi was fully under Ukrainian defence forces, with video evidence of Ukrainian troops moving freely. This contradicted Russian capture claims and drove the “Yes” price down sharply to the low single‑digit range.
Ukrainian drone strikes disrupt Russian logistics near Mariupol
June 30 rises to 7%4%
Ukrainian drones increasingly struck Russian logistics deep behind front lines, including near Mariupol, degrading Russian forces' ability to sustain offensive operations. This logistical pressure likely hindered Russian capacity to capture Kupiansk by June 30.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 46%5%
On May 2, 2026, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered faster advances along the Kupiansk axis. Despite this directive, ISW noted slow progress and inflated Russian claims, which contributed to market price declines for full Russian capture by December 31.
Russian forces suffer net territorial losses in April, including near Kupiansk
June 30 plunges to 6%20%
ISW reported Russian forces suffered net territorial losses in April 2026, including around Kupiansk, with advances stalling and Ukrainian forces regaining ground. This contributed to a sharp market price drop from 26% to 6% Yes.
Russian forces gradually improve control near Kupiansk in April and early May
December 31 drops to 46%5%
In early May, Russian forces expanded their zone of control around Kupiansk, including stable control of parts of Kurylivka, using these footholds to push toward Kupiansk outskirts, but full city capture remained unachieved, reflecting slow Russian progress and market price declines.
Ukrainian forces clear Russian position near Kupiansk using only drones and robots
On May 1, 2026, Ukrainian National Guard units of the Lava regiment conducted a fully robotized operation destroying a Russian fortified position near Kupiansk without deploying infantry, eliminating personnel and ammunition. This demonstrated strong Ukrainian control and hindered Russian advances.
Russian forces gradually expand control near Kupiansk outskirts
June 30 rises to 6%3%
Russian assault troops progressively expanded their zone of control near Kupiansk, including in Kurylivka-1 and towards Kupiansk-Uzlovyi, indicating incremental Russian advances but not full city capture.
Ukrainian forces kill 10 Russian troops in Kupiansk using drones only
June 30 dips to 3%2%
On May 1, Ukrainian forces reportedly cleared a building in Kupiansk and killed 10 Russian troops using only drones and robotic ground complexes. This demonstrated effective Ukrainian defense and limited Russian foothold, reinforcing market skepticism about Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30.
Russian forces gradually improve position near Kupiansk but no full capture
December 31 drops to 42%9%
By early May, Russian assault troops were expanding their zone of control near Kupiansk, gradually improving their situation and maintaining a bridgehead across the Oskil River. However, there was no indication of a full-scale capture of Kupiansk municipality.
Russian forces claim control of Doroshivka and advance near Kupiansk
June 30 rises to 6%1%
By early May, Russian military claimed control over villages near Kupiansk such as Doroshivka and Radkivka, and increased presence in nearby settlements. However, these advances did not translate into full control of Kupiansk municipality, as fighting continued on the outskirts.
Russian forces advance near Pishchane on Kupiansk axis
Russian troops advanced near Pishchane on the Kupiansk axis as part of ongoing offensive operations, but Ukrainian forces continued to hold key positions in Kupiansk municipality. The advance signaled incremental Russian pressure without full territorial control.
Pravda Germany: Russian forces see gradual improvement near Kupiansk in early May
June 30 rises to 6%1%
A May 1 article from Pravda Germany highlighted “gradual improvement” for Russian forces near Kupiansk. The optimistic tone briefly lifted the Yes price to 6 % on May 1, but subsequent contradictory reports quickly erased the gain.
Russian forces gradually improve control near Kupiansk but fail to capture city
June 30 rises to 6%3%
By early May, Russian forces expanded their zone of control in settlements near Kupiansk, such as Kurylivka-1, but Ukrainian forces maintained positions on the bridgehead east of Kupiansk and repelled assaults, preventing full capture of the city.
Russian forces continue offensive operations near Kupiansk but face Ukrainian counterattacks
On May 1, 2026, Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupiansk direction but did not make significant advances as Ukrainian forces reportedly counterattacked in the area, maintaining control of the city and preventing full Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian advances in Kupiansk area minimal, Ukrainian forces hold contested positions
ISW's April 30 assessment indicated that Russian forces had not made significant advances in Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces conducting clearing operations and holding firm positions, leading to a contested 'gray zone' status rather than full Russian control. This contributed to low market confidence in a full Russian capture by June 30.
Russian military claims control over Doroshivka near Kupiansk
On April 29, Russian military claimed to have taken control over Doroshivka, a village near Kupiansk, signaling incremental Russian advances in the area but not full control of Kupiansk itself. This maintained some market optimism for Russian gains but not full capture.
ISW reports Russian advances near Kupiansk but no full capture
June 30 dips to 3%3%
On April 29, 2026, ISW reported Russian forces advancing near Kupiansk but not achieving full control of the municipality. Ukrainian forces continued to hold key areas, limiting Russian territorial gains and dampening market optimism for a full capture by June 30.
Ukrainian Joint Forces say Russian troops only pressing near Kupiansk
December 31 drops to 21%6%
A Ukrainian spokesperson reported that Russian troops were pressing near Kupiansk but only held small fragments, reinforcing the view that full control was far off and pushing the “December 31” probability lower.
Russian Troops Renew Assaults on Both Banks of Oskil River Near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 4%2%
Ukrainian forces reported renewed Russian attempts to infiltrate Kupiansk through the northern village of Holubivka, including using gas pipelines, as they prepared for a spring campaign.
Russian Forces Renew Assaults on Both Banks of Oskil River Near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Ukrainian military spokespersons confirmed that Russian forces renewed active ground assaults on both banks of the Oskil river after conducting rotations and preparing for mass infiltration.
Ukraine uses unmanned systems to clear Russian positions near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Ukraine's 'Lava' unit conducted fully robotized operations destroying Russian fortified positions near Kupiansk without deploying infantry, demonstrating Ukrainian technological and tactical advantages. This reduced Russian footholds and lowered market confidence in full Russian capture.
Russian troops attempt infiltration into Kupiansk via gas pipelines, suffer heavy casualties
June 30 dips to 4%1%
On April 27, 2026, Russian forces renewed attempts to break through to Kupiansk using disused gas pipelines, resulting in up to 70% casualties during these assaults. Ukrainian defenses effectively repelled these infiltration attempts, maintaining control of the city.
Ukrainian forces kill 10 Russian troops in Kupiansk using drones and robots
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Ukrainian military units used drones and robotic ground complexes to eliminate Russian troops holding positions in Kupiansk without deploying infantry, demonstrating effective Ukrainian defense and limiting Russian control gains.
Russian troops renew assaults near Kupiansk, advancing in surrounding villages
June 30 dips to 4%2%
Reports indicated Russian forces progressively expanding control near Kupiansk, including increased presence in Kurylivka and attempts to infiltrate through Holubivka. Despite these advances, Russian forces did not capture Kupiansk city itself, limiting their territorial gains.
Gwara Media: Russians renew Kupiansk north‑infiltration attempts with limited success
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Gwara Media reported that Russian troops were still attempting infiltrations north of Kupiansk, but the article emphasized “more complicated” fighting and no decisive breakthroughs. The lack of progress reinforced the downtrend in the market’s Yes probability.
ISW says Russian assaults near Kupiansk make no progress
December 31 plunges to 31%25%
The ISW assessment reported that Russian ground assaults north, east and southeast of Kupiansk continued but made no territorial gain. The clarification that the front had stalled caused a sharp drop in the “December 31” odds, as traders saw a lower probability of a rapid Russian capture.
Russian forces renew assaults and infiltration attempts near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 4%2%
On April 26, Russian troops attempted to infiltrate Kupiansk through Holubivka village and launched attacks on both banks of the Oskil River. Despite these efforts, Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions, limiting Russian territorial gains and keeping market prices low.
Russia Attempts Infiltration of Kupiansk via Disused Gas Pipelines
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Frontline reports revealed that Russian forces, unable to make conventional mechanized advances, resorted to sending small infantry groups into Kupiansk through disused gas pipelines, highlighting their tactical desperation.
Russia tries to infiltrate Kupiansk through abandoned gas pipeline
December 31 drops to 13%8%
Trehubov told media that Russian units were attempting infiltration via a disused gas pipeline, highlighting continued Russian pressure yet also the limited nature of the operation, which further eroded expectations of a swift capture.
Russia Attempts Infiltration Into Kupiansk via Disused Gas Pipeline
June 30 dips to 3%3%
Ukrainian military spokespersons reported that Russian infantry groups attempted to sneak into Kupiansk using a disused gas pipeline, highlighting desperate tactical maneuvers.
Russian forces attempt infiltration into Kupiansk via disused gas pipelines
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Russian troops renewed infiltration attempts into Kupiansk by sending infantry groups through disused gas pipelines, indicating persistent efforts to regain control despite Ukrainian defenses. This tactic highlighted ongoing pressure but limited territorial gains, contributing to market uncertainty and a price decline.
Russian troops attempt infiltration into Kupiansk via disused gas pipelines
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Russian forces renewed attempts to infiltrate Kupiansk through disused gas pipelines, a tactic previously used in other areas, but suffered heavy casualties and were largely thwarted by Ukrainian defenses. This maintained Ukrainian control and kept market prices low.
Russian Defense Minister orders acceleration of advances near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 3%3%
On May 28, Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov ordered the Western grouping to accelerate advances along the Kupiansk axis, reflecting pressure to improve battlefield results. However, ISW noted this was likely an attempt to align ground gains with inflated reports, indicating limited real progress and contributing to market price declines.
ISW reports no significant Russian battlefield gains over past year
June 30 drops to 5%5%
The Institute for the Study of War confirmed that Russian forces had failed to achieve any significant operational breakthrough, while Ukrainian forces expanded their battlefield gains during winter and spring 2026, undermining Russian territorial ambitions.
Russian Troops Creep Slightly Closer to Northern Kupiansk Using Tree Cover
June 30 rises to 6%1%
Ukrainian military officials reported that Russian forces managed to get slightly closer to Kupiansk from the north by utilizing newly grown spring tree cover to mask their infiltration attempts.
Russian troops make slight advances closer to Kupiansk amid infiltration attempts
June 30 dips to 3%1%
Russian forces moved slightly closer to Kupiansk and attempted infiltration through nearby villages and disused gas pipelines, but Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city. These limited advances did not translate into full capture, keeping market prices low.
Russian troops get slightly closer to northern Kupiansk, Ukrainian military reports
On April 23, 2026, Ukrainian military spokesman Viktor Trehubov reported that Russian troops had moved slightly closer to Kupiansk from the north, using tree cover to attempt infiltration. Despite Russian claims, Ukrainian forces maintained control, and the city remained contested but not captured.
Russian troops advance slightly closer to Kupiansk, attempt infiltration via Holubivka
June 30 rises to 6%1%
On April 23, Ukrainian sources reported slight Russian advances near Kupiansk and renewed infiltration attempts through Holubivka village, including underground gas pipelines. This indicated ongoing Russian pressure but no decisive control, causing a minor market uptick reflecting potential for future gains.
Gwara Media: Russian advances near Kupiansk remain minimal, claims of control dismissed
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Gwara Media reported that Russian troops had only moved “slightly” closer to Kupiansk and that Russian claims of full control were dismissed as “drug‑fed delirium.” The article highlighted continued Russian pressure but no decisive breakthrough, which helped keep market sentiment low throughout the April‑May window.
Russian troops move slightly closer to Kupiansk from the north
On April 23, Ukrainian military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported Russian troops had moved slightly closer to Kupiansk from the north, attempting infiltration using tree cover. This indicated ongoing Russian pressure but no full capture of the city.
ISW map shows no full Russian control of Kupiansk municipality
The ISW map from April 19, 2026, indicated that Russian forces had not captured the entirety of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining Ukrainian control over significant parts. This reinforced market skepticism about a full Russian capture by mid-2026.
Reports of Russian advances west of Kupiansk amid Ukrainian troop redeployments
June 30 rises to 6%1%
On April 18, frontline reports indicated Russian forces advanced west of Kupiansk, causing Ukrainian troops to redeploy to other sectors. This suggested increased Russian pressure near Kupiansk but no full capture of the city, leading to a slight market price increase.
Russian Forces Make Subtle Advances West of Kupiansk Amid Ukrainian Redeployments
Battlefield observers reported that Russian troops made localized advances west of Kupiansk as Ukrainian forces redeployed some units toward the Vovchansk sector to counter increased pressure there.
Russian troops advance west of Kupiansk, Ukrainian forces redeploy
June 30 rises to 6%1%
On April 18, reports indicated Russian forces made recent advances west of Kupiansk, prompting Ukrainian troop redeployments to counter increased pressure. This development suggested incremental Russian territorial gains near Kupiansk but not full capture, maintaining low market confidence.
Russian forces make advances west of Kupiansk, seizing villages within 10 km of the city
Multiple OSINT reports (DeepState, Gwara Media) on 18 April described Russian units advancing west of Kupiansk and seizing villages within a few kilometres of the city. The news revived expectations of a capture, pushing the Yes price up to 3 % on April 22 and then to 5 % by April 27.
Russian forces advance west of Kupiansk amid Ukrainian troop redeployments
On April 18, 2026, reports indicated Russian troops had recently advanced west of Kupiansk, prompting Ukrainian forces to shift units toward the Vovchansk area to respond to increased Russian activity. This signaled mounting pressure on the northern Kharkiv front but did not result in full capture of Kupiansk.
Russian claims of advances near Kupiansk contradicted by ISW
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Russian General Staff chief Valery Gerasimov claimed advances west of Kupiansk and control over surrounding settlements. However, ISW assessments found these claims false, with Russian forces holding only small portions and failing to establish fortified positions in Kupiansk, reducing confidence in Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian forces clear Russian positions near Kupiansk using unmanned systems
June 30 dips to 5%1%
On April 13, Ukrainian National Guard units conducted a fully robotized operation to destroy a Russian fortified position near Kupiansk without deploying infantry or sustaining losses. This demonstrated Ukrainian control and effective defense capabilities in the Kupiansk area, limiting Russian advances.
Russian forces resume assaults on Kupiansk outskirts amid calm city center
June 30 dips to 4%1%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town, while the city itself remained relatively calm and under Ukrainian control. This indicated ongoing pressure but no full capture, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.
Ukraine captures Russian position near Kupiansk using only robots
June 30 dips to 5%1%
On April 13, Ukrainian forces successfully captured a Russian fortified position near Kupiansk using drones and ground-based robots without infantry deployment or casualties, demonstrating strong Ukrainian defense and technological advantage, reducing likelihood of Russian full capture soon.
ISW says Russian attacks near Kupiansk make no progress, Ukrainian counter‑attacks noted
June 30 dips to 3%2%
ISW’s April 13 assessment reported Russian attacks near Kupiansk but no confirmed advances and noted Ukrainian counter‑attacks in nearby villages, signalling a stall in Russian momentum. The market dropped from 5 % to 3 % shortly after, reflecting lower confidence that Russia would capture the municipality.
Russian forces resume active assaults on Kupiansk outskirts
June 30 rises to 6%1%
On April 12, Russian forces carried out multiple attacks in the Kupiansk sector, including areas near Petropavlivka and Podoly, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town. Despite these assaults, the situation inside Kupiansk remained relatively calm with minimal Russian presence, indicating ongoing contested control rather than full capture.
Russian forces intensify assaults on Kupiansk outskirts but fail to capture city
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Russian troops launched multiple attacks on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to regain foothold, but Ukrainian forces maintained control of the city itself. The ongoing fighting without full Russian capture reinforced market skepticism about a complete Russian takeover by June 30.
Battles Intensify on Kupiansk Outskirts as Russian Forces Resume Assaults
Russian forces resumed active assault operations on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to push back Ukrainian defenders and advance toward the town.
Russian forces resume assaults near Kupiansk outskirts but fail to regain city
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Russian forces launched multiple attacks on Kupiansk outskirts attempting to push Ukrainian troops back and enter the city, but Ukrainian defense held firm. This ongoing failure to capture Kupiansk contributed to the market price falling to 5% by mid-April.
Russian forces operate on eastern outskirts of Kupiansk amid ongoing assaults
ISW reported Russian 1486th Motorized Rifle Regiment operating on eastern outskirts of Kupiansk, with assaults near Veterynarne resulting in seizure of some Ukrainian positions. This indicated Russian attempts to advance near Kupiansk but without full capture, maintaining uncertainty about control of the city.
Russian forces intensify attacks near Kupiansk outskirts
Russian forces resumed active assault operations on the outskirts of Kupiansk, attempting to push back Ukrainian troops and advance toward the town, though the city itself remained relatively calm and under Ukrainian control. This indicated ongoing Russian intent but limited success, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term capture.
Russian forces launch attacks on Kupiansk outskirts but town remains under Ukrainian control
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Despite Russian attacks on the outskirts of Kupiansk, Ukrainian military stated the town itself was secure with minimal Russian presence. This reinforced the view that Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk, sustaining low market prices for the capture outcome.
Ukrainian counterattacks continue to erode Russian control in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 3%2%
Ukrainian forces intensified strikes and counterattacks since late 2025, liberating large parts of Kupiansk and maintaining contested control into spring 2026, undermining Russian hold on the city and reducing market confidence in full Russian capture by June 30.
Russia launches multiple assaults on Kupiansk outskirts
June 30 rises to 6%1%
Russian forces carried out three attacks around Kupiansk (Petropavlivka, Podoly, Zahryzove) marking a renewed push on the outskirts. The news signalled a possible Russian advance toward the city, driving the market’s “June 30” odds up as traders priced in a higher chance of capture.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kupiansk outskirts
On April 12, Russian forces conducted three attacks in the Kupiansk sector, targeting areas around the city but failing to regain control of the municipality itself. This indicated ongoing Russian pressure but limited territorial gains, keeping market prices low for full capture by June 30.
Kremlin declares short-term ceasefire over Orthodox Easter amid ongoing Kupiansk clashes
On April 11, a Kremlin unilateral ceasefire came into effect, but both sides accused each other of violations. Fighting near Kupiansk continued with Russian infiltration attempts, indicating ongoing contested control and limiting Russian advances.
Russian forces attack in Kupiansk and surrounding villages but face Ukrainian counterattacks
June 30 dips to 5%1%
Russian forces launched attacks in Kupiansk and nearby villages such as Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Kurylivka, while Ukrainian forces counterattacked from nearby areas. The fighting was intense but did not result in full Russian control of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining market skepticism.
Ukraine slows Russian advances and maintains gains in key areas including Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 5%4%
War experts noted Ukraine's ability to slow Russian offensives and make gains in strategic locations such as Kupiansk, reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture the city soon. This contributed to the market price settling at a low level by early April.
Russian forces continue attacks near Kupiansk but fail to advance
June 30 dips to 5%2%
On April 7-8, Russian forces attacked Kupiansk and nearby villages but did not make advances, while Ukrainian forces conducted infiltration operations. This stalemate and failure to capture Kupiansk fully kept market prices low at 5%.
Russian forces attack Kupiansk and surrounding areas but fail to change control
June 30 dips to 5%2%
Russian forces launched attacks in Kupiansk and nearby settlements including Petropavlivka, Pishchane, and Kurylivka, but Ukrainian forces counterattacked from nearby areas. These operations did not result in Russian control of Kupiansk municipality, maintaining Ukrainian hold and dampening prospects of full Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces conduct infiltration operations southeast of Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 5%2%
On April 7, ISW reported Ukrainian shelling of Russian positions in southern Kurylivka near Kupiansk during infiltration operations that did not change control lines but demonstrated ongoing Ukrainian activity and resistance in the area, reinforcing doubts about Russian full capture.
War Monitors Detect More Russian Gains Southeast of Kupiansk Near Pishchane
June 30 dips to 7%3%
DeepState and military spokesmen confirmed Russian advances and infiltration in the grey zone southeast of Kupiansk, though the main municipality remained under Ukrainian control.
Russian forces advance near Pishchane in Kupiansk district
Russian troops advanced near Pishchane, southeast of Kupiansk, confirmed by Ukrainian spokesperson Viktor Trehubov. Despite Russian attempts to infiltrate, Ukrainian forces were actively repelling attacks, indicating ongoing contested fighting around Kupiansk but no full capture.
ISW reports Russian infiltration overestimates in central Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 7%2%
On April 1, ISW noted that Russian presence in central Kupiansk was likely overestimated and Ukrainian forces had eliminated enduring Russian positions in the city center, indicating no full Russian control. This assessment contributed to a decline in market confidence for the June 30 outcome.
Russian Forces Attack Kupiansk Direction 11 Times as Ukrainian Defenses Hold
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Russian forces intensified their assaults with 11 attacks in the Kupiansk direction, but Ukrainian defenders maintained their positions, keeping the probability of a Russian capture extremely low.
Ukrainian Military Confirms Russian Presence in Pishchane Near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 7%2%
A Ukrainian military spokesperson confirmed that Russian troops were present in Pishchane, a village 14 km southeast of Kupiansk, which remained a contested grey zone.
Russian Forces Attempt to Attack Kupiansk From the East
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian military officials confirmed that Russia continued its attempts to enter Kupiansk by launching attacks from the eastern direction, though Ukrainian forces maintained control.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian attempts to seize Kivsharivka near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Geolocated footage and reports showed Ukrainian forces capturing Russian soldiers in Kivsharivka and refuting Russian claims of control. Russian forces were assessed to be far from seizing the settlement, indicating continued Ukrainian control in the Kupiansk area and limiting Russian territorial gains.
Geolocated Footage Indicates Russian Territorial Gains in Kupiansk Sector
June 30 rises to 10%1%
Reports of localized Russian advances and intensified fighting in the Kupiansk direction caused a minor temporary rebound in the market's pricing.
Russian Ministry of Defense claims territorial gains near Kupiansk amid unclear situation
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Despite Russian claims of territorial gains near Kupiansk, geolocated footage and reports indicated the situation remained unclear with Ukrainian forces maintaining control, contributing to the market's low confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Russian ministry claims new gains in Kupiansk amid fresh fighting
A Russian defence briefing claimed fresh territorial gains in Kupiansk, and geolocated video footage suggested renewed fighting. This brief optimism caused the modest price uptick in late March (around 9–10 %).
Reports of Russian territorial gains near Kupiansk create uncertainty but no breakthrough
June 30 rises to 10%1%
Russian Ministry of Defense claimed capture of nearby Kivsharivka and reported territorial gains in Kupiansk, but fighting remained intense and situation unclear. These reports caused minor market fluctuations but did not reverse the overall trend against Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces report minimal Russian presence in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 5%1%
On March 28, Ukrainian officials identified only six active Russian call signs in Kupiansk, indicating a significantly reduced Russian presence and suggesting Ukrainian advances in the area. This news likely contributed to a decrease in market confidence for Russian full control by June 30.
Ukrainian forces identify minimal Russian presence in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 7%2%
On March 28, Ukrainian Joint Forces Task Force reported only six active Russian call signs in Kupiansk, indicating a very limited Russian presence and suggesting Ukrainian control of the area. This news likely contributed to low market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk by June 30.
ISW reports Russian infiltrations in Kupiansk direction amid ongoing Ukrainian advances
June 30 dips to 9%1%
By late March, ISW noted Russian infiltrations in the Kupiansk direction but emphasized Ukrainian counterattacks making gains in northern Kharkiv Oblast. The continued Ukrainian control and Russian operational difficulties kept market confidence in a Russian capture very low at 9%.
ISW reports Russian infiltrations near Kupiansk but unlikely to seize area in 2026
June 30 dips to 9%1%
ISW noted Russian infiltrations in the Kupiansk direction but assessed Russian forces unlikely to seize Kupiansk or the Fortress Belt in 2026, supporting the market's low probability for Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports Russian infiltration near Kupiansk but unlikely to seize Fortress Belt in 2026
June 30 dips to 9%1%
ISW noted Russian forces infiltrated near Kupiansk but assessed they are unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Kupiansk, in 2026. Ukrainian counterattacks continued to make gains, reinforcing market skepticism about Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports Russian infiltration attempts near Kupiansk amid Ukrainian advances
June 30 dips to 9%1%
ISW reported Russian forces infiltrated near Kupiansk while Ukrainian forces continued advances in northern Kharkiv Oblast. Despite infiltration, Russian forces failed to secure full control, maintaining market skepticism about Russian capture by June 30.
ISW: Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupiansk direction stabilize Ukrainian control
June 30 dips to 9%4%
The Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment reported that Ukrainian forces had launched successful counterattacks in the Kupiansk direction in November 2025, which stabilized Ukrainian control over the town and pushed Russian forces out of several settlements.
ISW confirms ongoing Ukrainian control and Russian failure to capture Kupiansk fully
June 30 dips to 8%2%
ISW's March 25 assessment reiterated that Ukrainian forces held Kupiansk and that Russian forces were unlikely to make rapid breakthroughs, confirming the market's low probability pricing for Russian capture by June 30.
Russian milbloggers criticize Kremlin claims of Kupiansk seizure
June 30 rises to 10%1%
Russian military bloggers publicly disputed Kremlin and Russian General Staff claims of having seized Kupiansk, highlighting ongoing Ukrainian control and successful counterattacks. This undermined confidence in Russian territorial gains and likely contributed to market skepticism about full Russian capture by June 30.
Russian military criticism grows over failure to capture Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 9%3%
By late March, Russian military commentators criticized repeated false claims of capturing Kupiansk, while Ukrainian forces maintained control. This highlighted Russian setbacks and contributed to market pessimism about Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports ongoing fighting east of Kupiansk with Russian forces attempting to regain ground
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Russian forces were reported attempting to seize areas near Kupiansk but only controlled small remaining areas east of the Oskil River, with fighting ongoing. This indicated Russia had not captured all of Kupiansk and was unlikely to do so soon.
ISW and milbloggers refute Russian claims of Kupiansk capture
December 31 drops to 45%11%
ISW and Russian milbloggers publicly disputed Russian claims that Kupiansk had been captured, noting that the city remained contested. The clarification reduced market confidence in a Russian capture, prompting a price drop for the “December 31” outcome.
ISW reports Russian claims of Kupiansk capture are false amid Ukrainian counterattacks
June 30 dips to 8%2%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) assessed that Russian claims of seizing Kupiansk were false, with Ukrainian counterattacks ongoing. This official assessment reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects by June 30, keeping prices low.
Russian military command criticized for false claims of Kupiansk seizure
Russian military leaders, including Putin and Gerasimov, claimed multiple times that Russia had seized Kupiansk, but these claims were widely disputed by Russian milbloggers and contradicted by Ukrainian President Zelenskyy's visit to the city in December 2025. This undermined confidence in Russian advances in the Kupiansk direction, negatively impacting market expectations for a June 30 capture.
ISW assessment confirms Ukrainian control and Russian setbacks near Kupiansk
On March 25, ISW reiterated that Ukrainian forces had maintained control over Kupiansk since mid-December 2025 and that Russian forces had failed to regain significant territory, solidifying market consensus against Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces launch spring-summer 2026 offensive but face strong Ukrainian resistance
June 30 dips to 7%3%
ISW reported that Russian forces intensified ground attacks in March 2026 as part of their spring-summer offensive, but Ukrainian forces retained strong defensive positions including around Kupiansk. This limited Russian gains and maintained low market confidence in a full Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks toward Kupiansk direction
On March 23, 2026, Russian forces conducted several attacks toward Kupiansk and nearby areas, indicating ongoing combat but no decisive control. This maintained uncertainty about Russian capture of Kupiansk, keeping market prices low for the June 30 outcome.
Russian forces engaged in fighting east of Kupiansk near surrounding villages
Russian assault troops were reported fighting near Kupiansk in villages such as Synkivka, Petropavlivka, Kurylivka, and Kivsharivka, indicating ongoing attempts to capture remaining areas east of Kupiansk. This showed active Russian offensive efforts but no full capture of the city, keeping market confidence low.
Russian forces attempt to seize remaining areas near Kupiansk but face resistance
June 30 dips to 8%2%
Russian forces engaged in fighting east of Kupiansk and nearby villages but only controlled parts of the eastern bank of the Oskil River, failing to capture the entire municipality. This ongoing resistance kept market prices low at around 8-10%.
ISW reports continued Ukrainian counterattacks and Russian redeployments near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 8%1%
ISW noted Russian redeployment of naval infantry divisions in response to Ukrainian counterattacks, indicating ongoing Ukrainian operational pressure and lack of Russian consolidation in Kupiansk, sustaining low market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
ISW assesses Russia unlikely to seize Fortress Belt including Kupiansk in 2026
June 30 dips to 9%1%
ISW reported that Russian forces had begun their spring-summer offensive elsewhere but were unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Kupiansk, in 2026. This assessment reflected the limited Russian progress and high costs expected, further lowering market confidence in full capture.
ISW reports Russian offensive buildup near Kupiansk but doubts full capture in 2026
June 30 rises to 7%2%
ISW assessed that Russian forces began their spring-summer 2026 offensive in Donetsk Oblast, including efforts near Kupiansk, but concluded Russia was unlikely to seize the Fortress Belt, including Kupiansk, in 2026 due to strong Ukrainian defenses and limited Russian strength. This tempered market optimism for a June 30 capture.
Ukrainian forces intensify mid-range strike campaign against Russian military assets
Ukrainian forces significantly increased drone and artillery strikes on Russian logistics, military equipment, and manpower, degrading Russia's offensive capabilities and contributing to market skepticism about Russian territorial gains.
Russian Defense Ministry claims full capture of Kupiansk disputed by Ukraine
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Despite Russian Defense Ministry's announcement of full capture of Kupiansk in November 2025, Ukrainian military denied this, with President Zelenskyy confirming continued Ukrainian control during a December visit, sustaining market skepticism about Russian control.
Ukrainian forces continue to liberate territory near Kupiansk, Russian infiltrations fail
ISW noted ongoing Ukrainian advances and liberation of territory near Kupiansk in March 2026, while Russian infiltration attempts did not change control. This further confirmed Ukrainian dominance and reduced likelihood of Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports continued Russian infiltration near Kupiansk without territorial gains
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Geolocated footage showed Russian forces operating in Kivsharivka near Kupiansk in infiltration missions that did not change control of terrain. Ukrainian forces continued to impose tactical challenges on Russia, reinforcing the market's low probability of full Russian capture by June 30.
Russian forces conduct limited mechanized assaults near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 6%1%
Russian forces launched reduced company- and platoon-sized mechanized assaults in the Kupiansk direction as reconnaissance-in-force missions, aiming to probe Ukrainian defenses ahead of a spring-summer offensive. These limited attacks did not result in significant territorial gains, maintaining the status quo around Kupiansk.
EMPR reports 18 Russian attacks in Kupiansk direction with no gains
June 30 drops to 9%12%
EMPR’s daily update recorded a high number of Russian attacks (18) in the Kupiansk direction but noted no territorial gain. The heavy fighting without progress helped pull the market back down to the low‑single digits (≈9 % by late March).
Russian mechanized assaults increase near Kupiansk ahead of spring campaign
ISW reported increased Russian mechanized and motorized assaults in the Kupiansk direction on March 18 as part of preparations for a spring-summer offensive, signaling heightened military pressure but no decisive capture of the city.
Russian Forces Conduct Infiltration Mission in Kivsharivka Near Kupiansk
June 30 rises to 9%3%
Geolocated footage confirmed Russian forces operated in Kivsharivka, southeast of Kupiansk, in an infiltration mission that did not alter the overall control of terrain.
Russian Forces Launch Platoon-Sized Mechanized Assaults in Kupiansk Direction
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Russian forces conducted localized mechanized reconnaissance-in-force assaults to test Ukrainian defensive lines in the Kupiansk sector ahead of their spring-summer campaign.
Russian mechanized assaults intensify near Kupiansk ahead of spring campaign
June 30 rises to 10%4%
Russian forces increased mechanized and motorized assaults in the Kupiansk direction around March 18, likely probing Ukrainian defenses ahead of a larger spring offensive. This raised concerns about potential Russian advances, causing a slight market price increase for June 30.
Russian infiltration attempts near Kupiansk fail amid Ukrainian control
ISW reported Russian forces conducting infiltration missions near Kupiansk that did not change control of terrain, while Ukrainian forces maintained defensive positions and eliminated enemy groups. This confirmed ongoing Ukrainian control and inability of Russia to recapture the city.
Russian forces launch multiple attacks near Kupiansk amid spring offensive preparations
June 30 rises to 10%4%
On March 17, Russian forces attacked multiple locations including Kupiansk, conducting mechanized assaults as part of preparations for a spring-summer offensive. This increased military activity raised short-term expectations of Russian advances near Kupiansk, causing a slight price increase for the June 30 outcome.
Russian Forces Launch Nine Attacks in Kupiansk Direction Amid Stiff Resistance
June 30 dips to 5%4%
The Ukrainian General Staff reported that Russian forces launched nine attacks toward Kupiansk and surrounding settlements, but Ukrainian defense forces successfully repelled the advances, keeping the city secure.
ISW reports Russian claims of Kupiansk advances
June 30 dips to 3%3%
The ISW reported that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had seized 12 settlements in Ukraine in March 2026, but ISW only observed evidence of two settlements seized.
Russian General Gerasimov claims significant advances near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 5%1%
On March 17, 2026, Russian General Gerasimov claimed Russian forces controlled over 85% of Novoosynove near Kupiansk and pushed the frontline west of Siversk. However, ISW observed only limited Russian advances and no evidence of control over Novoosynove, indicating exaggeration of battlefield gains. This contributed to market skepticism about Russian capture of Kupiansk by June 30.
Gerasimov inflates Russian gains near Kupiansk; ISW says no change
June 30 dips to 7%2%
Gen. Gerasimov claimed on 17 Mar that Russian forces had pushed the front 12 km west of Siversk and controlled 85 % of Novoosynove, but ISW reported no such territorial gains. The contradiction sowed doubt about Russian propaganda, nudging the market further toward a ‘No’ outcome.
Russian forces conduct mechanized assaults near Kupiansk as part of spring offensive preparations
June 30 rises to 10%4%
Russian forces increased mechanized assaults near Kupiansk in mid-March 2026, signaling preparations for a spring-summer offensive. However, these assaults were limited in scale and did not result in significant territorial gains, maintaining uncertainty about full capture prospects.
Ukrainian President Zelenskyy reports more territory retaken than lost in prior 30 days
June 30 dips to 5%1%
On March 17, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stated that Ukrainian forces had retaken more territory than Russia had captured in the previous month, signaling Ukrainian resilience and counteroffensive success near Kupiansk. This news likely reduced market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026.
Ukraine Reports Only 20 Russian Troops Remain in Kupiansk as Russia Plans Renewed Offensive
Ukrainian military spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported that Russian forces were planning to resume their offensive on Kupiansk, but only about 20 Russian troops remained inside the city, confined to a hospital basement.
Russia plans renewed offensive on Kupiansk but only 20 troops remain in city
On March 16, Ukrainian spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported that Russian forces were preparing to resume their offensive on Kupiansk, but only about 20 Russian troops remained inside the city, confined to a limited area. This indicated limited Russian control and ongoing Ukrainian dominance, impacting market confidence negatively for a full Russian capture by June 30.
ISW map on March 16 shows Russian troops still confined to a tiny sector east of Kupiansk
December 31 dips to 5%1%
ISW’s daily map update on March 16 showed Russian forces only holding a small pocket east of the Oskil River and still far from the Kupiansk municipal boundary. The market, which priced in the prospect of a Russian capture, fell from 6 % to 5 % Yes shortly after the release, reflecting reduced confidence in a near‑term Kupiansk seizure.
Russian forces in Kupiansk reduced to about 20 troops confined to small area
June 30 drops to 5%6%
Ukrainian spokesperson Viktor Trehubov reported that only about 20 Russian troops remain inside Kupiansk, confined to a limited area and unable to reach outskirts. This indicated Russian failure to capture the city fully, contributing to the market's low price for a Russian capture by June 30.
Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division Withdraws from Kupiansk Direction After Heavy Losses
June 30 dips to 7%1%
The Russian 144th Motorized Rifle Division suffered severe personnel and equipment losses, losing its combat potential and forcing a withdrawal from positions in the Kupiansk direction.
Russian forces advance near populated areas in Kharkiv Oblast including Kupiansk vicinity
Despite some Russian advances near Kupiansk, these did not translate into full control of the municipality, maintaining market skepticism about Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces encircle about 20 Russian soldiers in Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Ukrainian forces encircled roughly two dozen Russian troops in Kupiansk who were unable to conduct active operations, further demonstrating Ukrainian control and diminishing Russian prospects of full capture.
Ukrainian forces advance on Kupiansk axis, surrounding remaining Russian groups
June 30 drops to 10%8%
By March 12, Ukrainian forces advanced north of Kivsharivka, south of Kupiansk, and controlled the whole Kupiansk municipality with small Russian groups surrounded in high-rise buildings. This confirmed Ukrainian dominance in the area and contributed to the market price decline to around 10%.
Russian infiltrations near Kupiansk do not change control, ISW reports
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Ukrainian military observer reported Russian infiltrations in northeastern and eastern Kupiansk, but ISW assessed these did not change control of terrain, reinforcing Ukrainian hold and limiting market optimism for Russian capture.
Russian forces infiltrate Kupiansk outskirts but fail to change control
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Reports indicated Russian infiltrations in northeastern and eastern Kupiansk and toward eastern Kivsharivka, but ISW assessed these did not change control of terrain or the forward edge of the battle area. This maintained the status quo and supported market skepticism about full Russian capture.
Russian forces infiltrate northeastern and eastern Kupiansk but no terrain change
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Reports indicated Russian infiltrations in parts of Kupiansk, but ISW assessed these did not change control of terrain or the frontline, suggesting continued Ukrainian dominance and no full Russian capture.
Russian forces infiltrate near Kupiansk but fail to change control
ISW reported Russian infiltrations in northeastern and eastern Kupiansk in mid-March 2026, but these did not result in changes to territorial control. This indicated continued Ukrainian control and limited Russian progress, supporting the market's low probability for Russian capture.
Geolocated footage shows Ukrainian advances south of Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 14%1%
Footage published on March 10 showed Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka, south of Kupiansk, indicating ongoing Ukrainian offensive operations in the area. This further demonstrated Ukrainian control and hindered Russian capture prospects, supporting the market's low price for Russian capture by June 30.
ISW reports Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk and Russian redeployment of elite units
June 30 dips to 9%1%
On March 10, ISW reported Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk and that Russian command was forced to redeploy elite units to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks. This indicated Russian difficulties in regaining control, contributing to continued low market prices around 8-10%.
Ukrainian forces advance near Kupiansk, counter Russian offensive
June 30 dips to 9%1%
Ukrainian forces pressed counterattacks near Kupiansk, forcing Russian command to redeploy elite units and limiting Russian capacity to overrun Ukrainian defenses. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces advance north of Kivsharivka near Kupiansk
Geolocated footage published on March 10 showed Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka, a settlement south of Kupiansk, indicating continued Ukrainian pressure and control in the Kupiansk area. This sustained Ukrainian momentum contributed to the market's low valuation of Russian capture by June 30.
ISW Confirms Ukrainian Advances Near Kupiansk and Disruption of Russian Reserves
June 30 dips to 9%3%
The Institute for the Study of War reported further Ukrainian tactical advances near Kupiansk, forcing Russia to draw on operational reserves and adjust its broader offensive plans.
ISW Reports Confirmed Ukrainian Advances Near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Geolocated footage analyzed by the Institute for the Study of War confirmed Ukrainian tactical advances south of Kupiansk near Kivsharivka, further pushing back Russian forces.
ISW reports Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka near Kupiansk
June 30 drops to 9%6%
Geolocated footage confirmed Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk, reinforcing the narrative of Ukrainian control and diminishing the likelihood of full Russian capture by the deadline.
Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk reported by ISW and DeepStateMap
June 30 drops to 12%5%
Geolocated footage and ISW reports showed Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka, south of Kupiansk, and Russian attacks near Kupiansk, indicating ongoing Ukrainian control and pressure on Russian forces, further lowering market expectations for Russian capture.
Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk force Russian command to redeploy elite units
June 30 dips to 9%3%
ISW reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk in early March 2026 that pressured Russian forces, forcing them to redeploy elite units and likely abandon or adjust offensive plans. This reinforced market doubts about Russian capture of Kupiansk.
Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka near Kupiansk reported
June 30 dips to 8%4%
Geolocated footage published on March 10 showed Ukrainian forces advancing north of Kivsharivka, a settlement south of Kupiansk, indicating continued Ukrainian pressure and control in the Kupiansk area, further lowering expectations of Russian capture.
ISW: Ukraine advances near Kupyansk, counter Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia Oblast
June 30 dips to 12%3%
Ukrainian forces confirmed advances near Kupiansk and halted Russian progress across western Zaporizhzhia Oblast, forcing Russian command to redeploy elite units from multiple oblasts.
Ukrainian forces confirm advances near Kupiansk, halting Russian progress
June 30 dips to 9%1%
ISW reported Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk and that Russian forces were forced to redeploy elite units due to Ukrainian counterattacks. This indicated sustained Ukrainian control and pressure on Russian forces, further reducing the likelihood of full Russian capture.
ISW: Ukraine advances near Kupiansk, counter Russian offensive in Zaporizhzhia
June 30 dips to 13%1%
ISW assessed that Ukrainian forces had pressed simultaneous counterattacks across multiple sectors, including near Kupiansk, forcing the Russian command to make strategic-level decisions and likely requiring abandonment of previous Spring-Summer 2026 offensive plans.
ISW map shows Ukrainian advances north of Kivsharivka on Kupiansk axis
June 30 jumps to 21%6%
ISW released a map on March 9 showing Ukrainian forces advancing north of Kivsharivka and pressing the Kupiansk axis. The visual evidence of Ukrainian momentum caused the market to rebound briefly (up to 21 % on Mar 2) before settling lower as the advance stalled.
ISW Confirms Ukrainian Advances Near Kupyansk Forcing Russian Redeployments
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that successful Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupyansk forced Russian commanders to redeploy elite units and adjust offensive plans.
ISW map shows full Ukrainian control of Kupiansk on March 9
June 30 dips to 9%3%
ISW released a terrain‑control map for March 9 showing the entire Kupiansk municipality shaded blue (Ukrainian‑held). The visual confirmation that no part of the city was red on the ISW map caused a further collapse of the ‘Yes’ price, as the market interpreted the map as decisive evidence against a Russian capture.
Russian forces deploy reserves to counter Ukrainian gains near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 15%3%
In early March, Russian command redeployed elite units to respond to Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk, indicating difficulties in regaining lost ground and further reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by mid-2026.
ISW reports Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk forcing Russian redeployment
June 30 dips to 15%3%
Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances near Kupiansk, compelling Russian command to redeploy elite units and adjust offensive plans. This indicated sustained Ukrainian control and pressure on Russian forces, diminishing chances of full Russian capture.
ISW reports Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk force Russian redeployments
ISW noted Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk and western Zaporizhzhia Oblast forced Russian command to redeploy elite units, indicating Russian difficulties in regaining territory. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in Russian capture of Kupiansk.
Ukrainian forces press counterattacks near Kupiansk, forcing Russian operational adjustments
June 30 dips to 15%4%
ISW reported Ukrainian counterattacks near Kupiansk forcing Russian command to adjust plans due to local tactical setbacks. Russian forces had to draw on reserves to sustain combat, indicating inability to overrun Ukrainian defenses, further diminishing Russian prospects of capturing Kupiansk fully.
Russian 40th Naval Infantry conducts limited mechanized assaults near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Russian forces conducted small-scale mechanized assaults near Kupiansk but were repelled by Ukrainian forces, indicating limited Russian offensive success and continued Ukrainian control. This contributed to sustained low market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
Ukraine eliminates Russian sabotage group attempting to mine near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 15%3%
Ukrainian paratroopers detected and eliminated a Russian sabotage group attempting to mine territory near Zahryzove in the Kupiansk direction, preventing Russian forces from gaining tactical advantage. This reinforced Ukrainian control and contributed to the market's decline.
Ukraine regains more territory than Russia in February, tightens grip around Kupiansk
December 31 jumps to 19%7%
Ukrainian Pravda quoted Commander‑in‑Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi stating that Ukrainian forces had regained more territory than Russia captured in February and were strengthening control around Kupiansk. The upbeat assessment caused a modest rebound in the market, lifting the price from about 12 % to 19 % on March 2‑4.
Ukrainian forces strengthen control around Kupiansk amid ongoing operations
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi reported effective operations strengthening control around Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces regaining more territory than Russia captured in February 2026. This reinforced market doubts about Russian capture prospects, keeping prices low around 9-12%.
Ukraine regains more territory than Russia captured in February, strengthens control around Kupiansk
June 30 rises to 17%4%
Ukrainian forces conducted effective operations strengthening control around Kupiansk and regained more territory than Russia captured in February, reinforcing Ukrainian dominance and reducing likelihood of Russian capture by June 30.
Ukraine Regained More Territory Than Russia Captured in February
June 30 drops to 15%5%
Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi announced that Ukrainian forces successfully strengthened control around Kupiansk and regained more territory overall than Russia captured in February.
Ukraine strengthens control around Kupiansk amid ongoing counterattacks
June 30 dips to 8%1%
Ukrainian forces continued to conduct effective operations near Kupiansk, strengthening control and containing Russian forces, further reducing the likelihood of Russian capture by the resolution date.
Ukrainian soldier sets up barricade near Kupiansk amid ongoing conflict
June 30 rises to 19%1%
Visual evidence of Ukrainian defensive preparations near Kupiansk indicated continued Ukrainian control and resistance, supporting the market's low probability for Russian capture.
Ukraine Reclaims More Territory Than Lost in February, Strengthening Kupiansk Control
June 30 dips to 15%3%
Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief Syrskyi and the ISW reported that Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February 2026, actively strengthening defensive control around Kupiansk.
Ukrainian forces regain more territory than Russia in February 2026
June 30 drops to 15%6%
In February 2026, Ukrainian forces strengthened control around Kupiansk and regained more territory than Russian forces captured, reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture all of Kupiansk soon. This contributed to continued low market prices around 12-15%.
Ukraine regains more territory and strengthens control around Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 10%2%
Ukrainian forces conducted effective operations strengthening control around Kupiansk, regaining more territory than Russia captured in February 2026. This progress further diminished the likelihood of Russian capture, reflected in continued low market prices.
Ukrainian military reports besieged Russian troops in Kupiansk dwindling
June 30 drops to 14%6%
Ukrainian forces reported that the remaining Russian troops in Kupiansk were besieged, surviving only on drone supplies and unable to leave their positions, indicating Russian failure to capture the city and supporting the market's decline in price.
Ukrainian military reports dwindling besieged Russian forces in Kupiansk high-rises
June 30 drops to 9%5%
Ukrainian forces reported only about 20 active Russian radios in besieged Kupiansk high-rises, indicating a collapsing Russian garrison after months of encirclement and failed attempts to retake the city.
Ukrainian military says besieged Russians in Kupiansk high-rises dwindling
June 30 dips to 12%2%
Ukrainian forces reported that the remaining Russian troops in Kupiansk were confined to a few apartment blocks with dwindling numbers, unable to break out or regain control, signaling continued Ukrainian dominance and reducing chances of full Russian capture.
Trapped Russian Garrison in Kupiansk High-Rises Slowly Collapses
June 30 jumps to 18%6%
Reports confirmed that the remaining Russian soldiers trapped in Kupiansk apartment blocks were dwindling, with only 20 active radios detected, signaling the final collapse of the Russian bridgehead.
Besieged Russian Troops in Kupiansk High-Rises Dwindling
June 30 rises to 21%3%
Reports confirmed that the Russian deadline to seize Kupiansk by February 2026 had passed, with remaining trapped troops surviving on drone-dropped supplies in isolated apartment blocks.
Besieged Russians in Kupiansk high‑rises dwindling, Ukrainian military says
Euromaidan Press noted that the remaining Russian troops in Kupiansk high‑rises were “dwindling,” reinforcing the view that Russia would not capture the municipality. This helped keep the Yes price low, hovering around 13 % through late February.
Besieged Russian Garrison in Kupiansk High-Rises Dwindles as February Deadline Passes
June 30 jumps to 18%5%
Reports highlighted that Moscow's strict deadline to capture Kupiansk by February 2026 had passed, with the remaining trapped Russian troops surviving solely on drone-dropped supplies.
Ukrainian military reports besieged Russians in Kupiansk high-rises dwindling
June 30 drops to 12%6%
Ukrainian forces reported that remaining Russian troops in Kupiansk were confined to drone-supplied apartment blocks and unable to leave, with Moscow's February deadline to capture the city passed. This confirmed the failure of Russian efforts and contributed to further market price decline.
Ukrainian military reports dwindling Russian forces besieged in Kupiansk high-rises
June 30 dips to 12%4%
Ukrainian military stated that Russian troops in Kupiansk are dwindling and trapped in apartment blocks, unable to leave, indicating Russian failure to capture the city fully and weakening their position.
Russian forces fail to dislodge Ukrainian troops near Kostyantynivka, focus shifts
June 30 dips to 13%2%
ISW noted Russian forces lacked strength to seize key locations and were diverted to counter Ukrainian counterattacks that liberated most of Kupiansk. This indicated Russian operational limitations and reduced likelihood of capturing Kupiansk fully soon.
Kupiansk operation ongoing but slowing, Russians never fully controlled city
June 30 dips to 13%1%
By February 25, 2026, reports confirmed the Kupiansk operation was still ongoing but at a slower pace, with Russian forces never having full control of the city. This prolonged stalemate and Ukrainian infiltration efforts contributed to the market's continued decline in Russian capture probability.
ISW Report Shows Ukraine Gains Territory in February 2026
June 30 drops to 14%6%
ISW confirmed Ukrainian forces liberated more territory than they lost in February 2026, marking their first net territorial gain since the summer 2023 counteroffensive.
Ukrainska Pravda reveals Russian claims of Kupiansk capture were false
June 30 dips to 9%4%
A detailed report exposed that Russian forces never fully controlled Kupiansk despite Kremlin claims, with Ukrainian intelligence and forces actively contesting the city. This further undermined market confidence in Russian capture.
ISW reports Russian forces seized Pokrovsk but no significant gains near Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 15%1%
ISW confirmed Russian capture of Pokrovsk but noted no evidence of Russian forces holding consolidated positions within Kupiansk, indicating stalled advances in the Kupiansk area. This limited progress contributed to a decline in market confidence for Russia capturing Kupiansk by June 30.
Ukrainian intelligence reveals Russian troops hidden in Kupiansk since late 2025
June 30 dips to 14%1%
A report detailed how Russian troops infiltrated Kupiansk covertly and that Ukrainian forces have been actively contesting the city since late 2025, indicating ongoing Ukrainian resistance and contestation rather than full Russian control, contributing to market price decline.
Kupiansk operation ongoing but at slower pace; Russians never had full control
June 30 dips to 9%3%
Reports confirmed that Russian forces never fully controlled Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces holding positions adjacent to Russian troops. The ongoing operation at a slower pace indicated continued Ukrainian control and resistance to Russian capture, further depressing market confidence.
ISW reports Ukrainian advances near Kupiansk and counter Russian offensive
June 30 drops to 14%6%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces had confirmed advances near Kupiansk and were halting Russian progress, forcing the Russian command to redeploy elite units in response.
Ukrainian forces make significant gains around Kupiansk, stabilizing control
June 30 drops to 14%6%
Ukrainian counterattacks in mid-December 2025 and continuing into early 2026 stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook territory, disrupting Russian plans for a spring offensive and diminishing chances of Russian full capture by June 30.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces hold Kupiansk after December counteroffensive
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported that Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk following counterattacks in mid-December 2025, pushing Russian forces out of nearby settlements and maintaining gains despite ongoing Russian efforts. This news likely caused a sharp drop in market confidence for Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize Kupiansk, retaking territory from Russia
June 30 drops to 14%6%
By late February, Ukrainian counterattacks since December 2025 had stabilized control over Kupiansk and reclaimed at least 183 square kilometers around it, disrupting Russian offensive preparations and diminishing prospects of Russian capture.
Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook territory, pushing Russian forces out of several settlements near the town. This undermined Russian claims of inevitable gains and suggested Russia would struggle to capture Kupiansk fully by mid-2026.
Ukraine holds off Russia’s yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with surprise counteroffensive
June 30 dips to 18%4%
Ukraine successfully resisted Russian attempts to seize Kupiansk during a prolonged campaign, culminating in a counteroffensive in December 2025 that maintained Ukrainian control. This reinforced market skepticism about Russian capture prospects, contributing to further price declines.
Ukrainian forces hold Kupiansk and push back Russian forces in December counterattacks
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
ISW reported that Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory near the town in December 2025, maintaining these gains into early 2026. This diminished market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by the deadline.
Kupiansk remains under Ukrainian control despite Russian infiltration attempts
June 30 drops to 14%6%
Reports confirmed that Russian forces never had full control of Kupiansk, with Ukrainian forces holding key positions and Russian troops limited to isolated buildings. This ongoing Ukrainian control undermined Russian claims and further reduced market expectations for Russian capture by June 30.
ISW Reports Significant Ukrainian Gains and Stabilization of Kupyansk
June 30 dips to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War highlighted that Ukrainian counterattacks stabilized control over Kupyansk, disrupting Russia's upcoming spring-summer offensive plans.
ISW Reports Ukrainian Counterattacks Stabilized Control Over Kupiansk
June 30 dips to 12%2%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian counterattacks in mid-December 2025 stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook 183 square kilometers, pushing Russian forces out of nearby settlements.
ISW Assessment Confirms Ukrainian Counterattacks Stabilized Control Over Kupiansk
June 30 drops to 13%5%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian counterattacks successfully stabilized control over Kupiansk, pushing Russian forces out of several nearby settlements.
Ukrainian counteroffensive stabilizes control over Kupiansk
June 30 plunges to 19%31%
Ukrainian forces launched counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory, pushing Russian forces out of several settlements near the town. This halted Russian advances and set the stage for continued Ukrainian control into 2026, reducing market confidence in Russian capture.
ISW reports Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area
June 30 dips to 18%4%
The Institute for the Study of War reported Ukrainian counterattacks in mid-December 2025 stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory, undermining Russian claims of control and reducing likelihood of full Russian capture by June 30.
ISW: Battlefield realities disprove Russia's claim that Ukrainian defeat is inevitable
June 30 jumps to 20%5%
The Institute for the Study of War reported Ukrainian forces had liberated 183 km² near Kupiansk between December 11-25 and a net gain of 165 km² in February, showing significant Ukrainian territorial advances.
Ukrainian forces stabilize control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Ukrainian counterattacks in mid-December 2025 stabilized control over Kupiansk and pushed Russian forces out of nearby settlements, halting Russian advances and undermining expectations of a Russian capture. This news contributed to a sharp drop in market price from 50% to 15% for the June 30 outcome.
ISW Reports Ukrainian Counterattacks Near Kupiansk Stabilized Control and Disrupted Russian Plans
June 30 dips to 13%1%
The Institute for the Study of War assessed that Ukrainian counterattacks stabilized control over Kupiansk and forced Russian troops to fight for defensive positions, disrupting their upcoming spring-summer offensive.
ISW assessment: Russian attacks around Kupiansk stall, Ukrainian control holds
December 31 dips to 12%3%
The ISW’s February 24 assessment highlighted that Russian forces were still attacking around Kupiansk but were unable to advance, while Ukrainian forces continued to hold the city and push back Russian infiltrations. The assessment reinforced the view that a Russian seizure was unlikely, driving the market further down.
ISW reports Ukrainian gains of 183 sq km around Kupiansk, Russian forces stalled
June 30 plunges to 13%37%
ISW published a detailed assessment stating that Ukrainian counter‑attacks launched in mid‑December 2025 had stabilized Kupiansk and recaptured about 183 sq km, pushing Russian forces back from the town. The report highlighted that Russia had not regained any ground in the area. This news sharply lowered market confidence that Russia would capture the whole municipality, driving the price from 50 % on Feb 16 down to 13 % by Feb 25.
Ukraine holds off Russian yearlong campaign for Kupiansk with December counteroffensive
June 30 dips to 18%4%
Ukraine successfully repelled Russian attempts to capture Kupiansk during a surprise counteroffensive in December 2025, maintaining control of the city into early 2026. This demonstrated Ukrainian resilience and limited Russian territorial gains, contributing to the market price decline.
ISW reports Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk after December counterattacks
June 30 drops to 14%6%
The Institute for the Study of War reported that Ukrainian forces stabilized control over Kupiansk since mid-December 2025, repelling Russian advances and holding territory despite Russian efforts to regain ground, reinforcing low likelihood of full Russian capture by mid-2026.
Ukrainian Military States Only Several Buildings in Kupiansk Remain Under Russian Control
June 30 drops to 14%6%
A military spokesperson confirmed that Russian forces control less than 3% of Kupiansk, consisting of just a few buildings where trapped soldiers are trying to survive.
Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk amid ongoing Ukrainian operations
June 30 plunges to 22%28%
Russian servicemen in Kupiansk surrendered through the Ukrainian "I Want to Live" program, indicating Ukrainian control and ongoing operations within the city. This event underscored that Russian forces had not secured full control of Kupiansk, negatively impacting market confidence in a complete Russian capture by June 30.
Russian soldiers surrender to Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk via 'I Want to Live' program
June 30 jumps to 20%5%
Several Russian servicemen surrendered to Ukrainian forces in Kupiansk through a state-run surrender program, indicating deteriorating Russian control and morale in the city, reinforcing the market's negative outlook on Russian capture prospects.
Three Russian soldiers surrender in Kupiansk via “I Want to Live” program
December 31 dips to 12%3%
A report from the “I Want to Live” surrender program said three Russian soldiers surrendered in Kupiansk after contacting Ukrainian forces. While the event did not change the overall control picture, it reinforced the narrative that Russian troops were on the back foot, supporting the continued decline of the market to the low‑teens.
Ukrainian forces maintain control of Kupiansk, Russian troops limited to high-rise buildings
June 30 dips to 14%1%
By February 20, Ukrainian forces continued to hold Kupiansk, with Russian infiltrators limited to small groups in high-rise buildings. Ukrainian counterattacks since December 2025 had secured the city, reinforcing market doubts about Russian capture and keeping prices low.
Russian Soldiers Surrender Near Kupiansk After Contacting Ukrainian Chatbot
June 30 jumps to 20%5%
A group of Russian soldiers trapped in Kupiansk's industrial zone voluntarily surrendered to Ukrainian forces using the 'I Want to Live' chatbot, highlighting the collapse of Russian positions.
Tense U.S.-mediated Geneva talks on Ukraine war settlement continue
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Negotiations between Russia and Ukraine mediated by the U.S. in Geneva were tense and ongoing, with little progress on settlement terms that could affect territorial control, maintaining uncertainty but not improving Russian capture prospects.
Ukrainian Forces Consolidate Control Over Kupiansk as Russian Infiltration Fails
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Reports from the frontline confirmed that the Ukrainian military successfully repelled Russian attempts to cross the Oskil River and establish a foothold in southwestern Kupiansk, causing the market's confidence in a rapid Russian capture to plummet.
Russian General Staff Chief Gerasimov claims capture of Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, denied by Ukraine
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
On January 26 and reiterated in February, Russian General Staff Chief Valery Gerasimov claimed Russian forces had captured Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi, a claim strongly denied by Ukrainian officials who confirmed the settlement remained under full Ukrainian control. This discrepancy highlighted Russian exaggeration of battlefield gains, contributing to market skepticism about Russian capture of Kupiansk.
Ukrainian forces maintain control over most of Kupiansk amid Russian attacks
June 30 plunges to 22%28%
On February 16, Ukrainian forces were reported to control most of Kupiansk, with Russian forces limited to small, isolated groups in high-rise buildings. Russian attacks occurred near Kupiansk but did not result in significant territorial gains, leading to a sharp market price drop from 50% to 22% for the June 30 outcome.
Ukraine reports confident control over Kupiansk with only dozens of Russian troops left
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Ukraine announced it had confident control over Kupiansk, with Russian forces reduced to a few dozen troops trapped in one quarter, signaling failure of Russian attempts to seize the city by the February deadline. This news caused a sharp drop in market price for Russia capturing Kupiansk by June 30.
Ukrainian counterattacks stabilize control over Kupiansk area
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Ukrainian forces began counterattacks in mid-December 2025 that stabilized control over Kupiansk and retook significant territory, halting Russian advances. This development sharply reduced market confidence in Russia capturing all of Kupiansk by June 30, 2026, causing a steep price drop from 50% to 15%.
Milblogger claims Russian 127th Regiment operating at 40 % strength near Kupiansk
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
A Russian milblogger posted that the 127th Motorized Rifle Regiment was down to 40 % manpower, suggesting severe Russian attrition. The claim fed scepticism about Russia’s ability to take Kupiansk, contributing to the abrupt –35‑point swing on Feb 16‑17 that sent the market to 15 % Yes.
Ukraine claims confident control of Kupiansk, Russian presence reduced to dozens
December 31 plunges to 15%35%
Euromaidan Press reported that Ukraine had "confident control" over Kupiansk with only a few dozen Russian troops left. The report quoted Joint Forces spokesman Andriy Trehubov and cited the ISW map. The news signalled to traders that Russia was unlikely to capture the whole municipality, driving the market sharply down from 50 % to about 15 % in the following days.
Ukraine reports confident control of Kupiansk, few Russian troops left
June 30 plunges to 15%35%
Euromaidan Press reported that Ukraine had “confident control” over Kupiansk with only a few dozen Russian troops remaining, indicating that Russia was unlikely to capture the whole municipality. This optimism drove the market sharply lower, dropping the Yes probability from 50 % to about 15 % the next day.
Ukraine says mission to retake Kupiansk is close to completion, Russian troops encircled
June 30 dips to 12%3%
Ukraine's Defense Forces spokesperson confirmed that only small groups of Russian soldiers remain in Kupiansk, fully encircled and facing severe supply shortages, with active fighting ongoing but no Russian breakthrough, reinforcing doubts about Russian capture by June 30.
Ukrainian forces repel Russian infiltration attempts near Kupiansk
June 30 plunges to 22%28%
Ukrainian defense forces successfully thwarted Russian infiltration and breakthrough attempts near Kupiansk, maintaining control over the city and capturing prisoners. This demonstrated Ukraine's strong defensive posture and reduced market confidence in Russian capture by June 30.
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