NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoCi sarà un Super El Niño quest' inverno (2026–27)?
Ci sarà un Super El Niño quest' inverno (2026–27)?
Sì
94% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mar 2027
Sì
94% probabilità
NUOVO
NUOVO
31 mar 2027
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Mercato aperto: Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Volume
$9,248Data di fine
1 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
This market will resolve "Yes" if NOAA's Climate Prediction Center reports a Relative Oceanic Niño Index (RONI) value of +2.0°C or higher for any of the following seasons: ASO 2026, SON 2026, OND 2026, NDJ 2026-27, or DJF 2026-27, as reported in official NOAA CPC RONI updates, https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/. Otherwise, this market will resolve "No".
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
A Super El Niño is an El Niño event in which RONI reaches this threshold for at least one overlapping ENSO season. An ENSO season is one of NOAA's standard overlapping 3-month periods (e.g., ASO, SON, OND, NDJ, DJF).
This market may resolve "Yes" immediately upon NOAA's first publication of a qualifying RONI value for any listed season. If no season has qualified, this market will not resolve "No" until NOAA publishes the DJF 2026-27 value since DJF captures El Niño's typical peak-strength window and an earlier "No" could contradict the final published data.
The first published RONI value for each listed season is final and governs this market's resolution; no subsequent revision to any season's value will be considered or will change the outcome once that season's first value has been published.
Volume
$9,248Data di fine
1 apr 2027Mercato aperto
Jul 24, 2026, 12:34 PM ETRisolutore
0x65070BE91...NOAA’s September 10, 2026 ENSO Diagnostic Discussion drives the 94.2% market-implied odds for a Super El Niño (very strong event with peak Niño 3.4 ≥ +2.0°C) this winter, citing rapid strengthening with current weekly anomalies near +2.9°C in the Niño 3.4 region and a greater than 90% chance of very strong conditions persisting through fall and winter 2026-27. Model consensus, including IRI and GFDL SPEAR ensembles, centers the peak in October–December 2026, with 75% odds of a historic RONI value exceeding +2.5°C—surpassing prior events since 1950. While the coupled ocean-atmosphere system shows clear El Niño signatures, inherent forecast uncertainty means atmospheric shifts or model revisions could moderate peak intensity before the winter season resolves the market.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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