**Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive since late January 2026 in the Oleksandrivka direction spanning Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, liberating roughly 600–745 square kilometers and 26 settlements according to Ukrainian command statements and ISW assessments.** This includes incremental gains east of Solodke and toward the Hulyaipole sector where Uspenivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) sits. Russian forces captured the village in late 2024 and established defensive positions there. **As of mid-August 2026, ISW mapping and official reporting show no confirmed Ukrainian re-entry or territorial control inside Uspenivka itself, consistent with Polymarket contracts pricing YES outcomes at low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for deadlines through May 2026.** Trader consensus reflects the slow, attritional nature of advances in this sector, Ukrainian force allocation across multiple fronts (including Kupyansk and Borova), Russian use of glide bombs and drones for defense, and the absence of rapid mechanized breakthroughs near the specific settlement. **Upcoming catalysts include continued Ukrainian drone-supported infantry operations in the Hulyaipole area, Russian Eastern Grouping responses, and any shifts in manpower or artillery availability that could alter the local tempo before year-end resolution windows.** Outcomes remain sensitive to verified frontline changes per ISW cartography rather than announcements alone.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoL'Ucraina rientrerà a Uspenivka entro...?
L'Ucraina rientrerà a Uspenivka entro...?
$191,273 Vol.
31 dic 2026
December 31
32%
30 settembre
10%
$191,273 Vol.
December 31
$24,687 Vol.
32%
30 settembre
$29,428 Vol.
10%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive since late January 2026 in the Oleksandrivka direction spanning Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, liberating roughly 600–745 square kilometers and 26 settlements according to Ukrainian command statements and ISW assessments.** This includes incremental gains east of Solodke and toward the Hulyaipole sector where Uspenivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) sits. Russian forces captured the village in late 2024 and established defensive positions there.
**As of mid-August 2026, ISW mapping and official reporting show no confirmed Ukrainian re-entry or territorial control inside Uspenivka itself, consistent with Polymarket contracts pricing YES outcomes at low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for deadlines through May 2026.** Trader consensus reflects the slow, attritional nature of advances in this sector, Ukrainian force allocation across multiple fronts (including Kupyansk and Borova), Russian use of glide bombs and drones for defense, and the absence of rapid mechanized breakthroughs near the specific settlement.
**Upcoming catalysts include continued Ukrainian drone-supported infantry operations in the Hulyaipole area, Russian Eastern Grouping responses, and any shifts in manpower or artillery availability that could alter the local tempo before year-end resolution windows.** Outcomes remain sensitive to verified frontline changes per ISW cartography rather than announcements alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Mercato aperto: May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ET
Volume
$191,273Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.**Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive since late January 2026 in the Oleksandrivka direction spanning Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, liberating roughly 600–745 square kilometers and 26 settlements according to Ukrainian command statements and ISW assessments.** This includes incremental gains east of Solodke and toward the Hulyaipole sector where Uspenivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) sits. Russian forces captured the village in late 2024 and established defensive positions there.
**As of mid-August 2026, ISW mapping and official reporting show no confirmed Ukrainian re-entry or territorial control inside Uspenivka itself, consistent with Polymarket contracts pricing YES outcomes at low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for deadlines through May 2026.** Trader consensus reflects the slow, attritional nature of advances in this sector, Ukrainian force allocation across multiple fronts (including Kupyansk and Borova), Russian use of glide bombs and drones for defense, and the absence of rapid mechanized breakthroughs near the specific settlement.
**Upcoming catalysts include continued Ukrainian drone-supported infantry operations in the Hulyaipole area, Russian Eastern Grouping responses, and any shifts in manpower or artillery availability that could alter the local tempo before year-end resolution windows.** Outcomes remain sensitive to verified frontline changes per ISW cartography rather than announcements alone.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Ukraine captures any territory of Uspenivka, Zaporizhzhia Oblast, (47.78301797308696° N, 36.386232040928824° E) between market creation and the specified date (ET).
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Territory will be considered captured if any part of the specified territory is shaded under a below specified layer on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.
For any change on the ISW map to qualify for this market’s resolution, the relevant shading indicating Ukrainian control must persist through the next full ISW daily update cycle. If ISW skips a day, shading must persist until the next finalized ISW update is published, regardless of the date. Any continuous shading which reflects either "Reported Ukrainian Territorial Gains in the Past 24 Hours", or “Claimed Ukrainian Counteroffensives” will qualify.
Once a qualifying condition is met, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.
If Ukraine comes into control of the specified territory as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded blue in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Ukraine de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap are rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.
Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$191,273Data di fine
1 gen 2027Mercato aperto
May 27, 2026, 6:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Ukrainian forces have conducted a sustained counteroffensive since late January 2026 in the Oleksandrivka direction spanning Donetsk, Dnipropetrovsk, and Zaporizhzhia oblasts, liberating roughly 600–745 square kilometers and 26 settlements according to Ukrainian command statements and ISW assessments.** This includes incremental gains east of Solodke and toward the Hulyaipole sector where Uspenivka (Zaporizhzhia Oblast) sits. Russian forces captured the village in late 2024 and established defensive positions there. **As of mid-August 2026, ISW mapping and official reporting show no confirmed Ukrainian re-entry or territorial control inside Uspenivka itself, consistent with Polymarket contracts pricing YES outcomes at low single-digit to low-teens probabilities for deadlines through May 2026.** Trader consensus reflects the slow, attritional nature of advances in this sector, Ukrainian force allocation across multiple fronts (including Kupyansk and Borova), Russian use of glide bombs and drones for defense, and the absence of rapid mechanized breakthroughs near the specific settlement. **Upcoming catalysts include continued Ukrainian drone-supported infantry operations in the Hulyaipole area, Russian Eastern Grouping responses, and any shifts in manpower or artillery availability that could alter the local tempo before year-end resolution windows.** Outcomes remain sensitive to verified frontline changes per ISW cartography rather than announcements alone.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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