Trader consensus assigning a 64.5% implied probability to “No” for an X ban in any European country by December 31, 2026, stems from the EU’s preference for Digital Services Act enforcement through fines and compliance remedies rather than outright prohibitions. A recent €120 million penalty over blue-check transparency was successfully appealed in February, while regulators continue inspections and content-moderation demands without launching national ban proceedings. Public polls from early 2026 show roughly 47% support for a ban if violations persist, yet institutional timelines for court action typically stretch 18–36 months. X has responded with targeted ad restrictions on EU accounts, reinforcing trader views that monetary penalties will prevail over platform bans before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato$10,413 Vol.
$10,413 Vol.
31 dic 2026
$10,413 Vol.
$10,413 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 64.5% implied probability to “No” for an X ban in any European country by December 31, 2026, stems from the EU’s preference for Digital Services Act enforcement through fines and compliance remedies rather than outright prohibitions. A recent €120 million penalty over blue-check transparency was successfully appealed in February, while regulators continue inspections and content-moderation demands without launching national ban proceedings. Public polls from early 2026 show roughly 47% support for a ban if violations persist, yet institutional timelines for court action typically stretch 18–36 months. X has responded with targeted ad restrictions on EU accounts, reinforcing trader views that monetary penalties will prevail over platform bans before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Mercato aperto: Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ET
Volume
$10,413Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigning a 64.5% implied probability to “No” for an X ban in any European country by December 31, 2026, stems from the EU’s preference for Digital Services Act enforcement through fines and compliance remedies rather than outright prohibitions. A recent €120 million penalty over blue-check transparency was successfully appealed in February, while regulators continue inspections and content-moderation demands without launching national ban proceedings. Public polls from early 2026 show roughly 47% support for a ban if violations persist, yet institutional timelines for court action typically stretch 18–36 months. X has responded with targeted ad restrictions on EU accounts, reinforcing trader views that monetary penalties will prevail over platform bans before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the use of X/Twitter is banned within any European country by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
For the purposes of this market, a “European country” is defined as any of the following sovereign states: Albania, Andorra, Austria, Belarus, Belgium, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Bulgaria, Croatia, Cyprus, Czechia, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, France, Georgia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Kosovo, Latvia, Liechtenstein, Lithuania, Luxembourg, Malta, Moldova, Monaco, Montenegro, Netherlands, North Macedonia, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Romania, San Marino, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, Ukraine, United Kingdom, and Vatican City.
A ban will qualify if legislation is enacted or government action is taken to bar the respective country's citizens from downloading and/or viewing X/Twitter, and/or posting on X/Twitter. Any legislation or government action that meets these standards will qualify, regardless of whether or when the ban goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the respective government and X/Twitter; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,413Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Mar 31, 2026, 3:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigning a 64.5% implied probability to “No” for an X ban in any European country by December 31, 2026, stems from the EU’s preference for Digital Services Act enforcement through fines and compliance remedies rather than outright prohibitions. A recent €120 million penalty over blue-check transparency was successfully appealed in February, while regulators continue inspections and content-moderation demands without launching national ban proceedings. Public polls from early 2026 show roughly 47% support for a ban if violations persist, yet institutional timelines for court action typically stretch 18–36 months. X has responded with targeted ad restrictions on EU accounts, reinforcing trader views that monetary penalties will prevail over platform bans before year-end.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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