Iván Cepeda of the Historic Pact leads recent polling as the candidate most likely to advance from the May 31 first round, positioning him as the frontrunner in a contest shaped by voter preferences for continuity with the outgoing administration's agenda. Abelardo de la Espriella, running on a hard-line security platform under the National Salvation Movement, holds second place in surveys and has pulled ahead of center-right rival Paloma Valencia of the Democratic Center in the battle for runoff qualification. Recent campaign violence, including the killing of two de la Espriella staffers in Meta department, has underscored security concerns that dominate voter priorities two weeks before the vote. Traders assign high probability to a Cepeda–de la Espriella runoff because current polling averages show no candidate near the 50 percent threshold for an outright win and de la Espriella maintaining a consistent edge over Valencia among conservative voters. Upcoming debates and final-week mobilization could still shift the narrow margins separating the right-wing contenders.