Recent fractures within France’s Socialist Party have sharply increased the likelihood that the planned October 2026 United Left primary will not occur. On 8 May 2026, parliamentary group leader Boris Vallaud resigned from party leadership and took roughly one-third of national officials with him, citing disagreements over participation in the primary process initiated last November by figures including Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, François Ruffin and Clémentine Autain. With the Socialists set to decide their involvement after June municipal elections and major groups such as La France Insoumise and the Communists already refusing to join, traders now assign a 57.5 % probability to cancellation. Tondelier retains the strongest organized support at 28.5 %, yet ongoing coalition-building efforts outside the primary framework continue to erode momentum for a unified October vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日中止 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 10%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ <1%
$51,603 Vol.
$51,603 Vol.
2026/10/11
中止
57%
Marine Tondelier
29%
François Ruffin
10%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ
1%
Clémentine Autain
<1%
Lydie Massard
<1%
中止 57%
Marine Tondelier 29%
François Ruffin 10%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ <1%
$51,603 Vol.
$51,603 Vol.
2026/10/11
中止
$8,306 Vol.
57%
Marine Tondelier
$26,582 Vol.
29%
François Ruffin
$11,243 Vol.
10%
ベンジャミン・リュカ＝ランディ
$117 Vol.
1%
Clémentine Autain
$3,882 Vol.
<1%
Lydie Massard
$1,474 Vol.
<1%
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent fractures within France’s Socialist Party have sharply increased the likelihood that the planned October 2026 United Left primary will not occur. On 8 May 2026, parliamentary group leader Boris Vallaud resigned from party leadership and took roughly one-third of national officials with him, citing disagreements over participation in the primary process initiated last November by figures including Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, François Ruffin and Clémentine Autain. With the Socialists set to decide their involvement after June municipal elections and major groups such as La France Insoumise and the Communists already refusing to join, traders now assign a 57.5 % probability to cancellation. Tondelier retains the strongest organized support at 28.5 %, yet ongoing coalition-building efforts outside the primary framework continue to erode momentum for a unified October vote.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
マーケット開始日： May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ET
音量
$51,603終了日
2026/10/11マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Recent fractures within France’s Socialist Party have sharply increased the likelihood that the planned October 2026 United Left primary will not occur. On 8 May 2026, parliamentary group leader Boris Vallaud resigned from party leadership and took roughly one-third of national officials with him, citing disagreements over participation in the primary process initiated last November by figures including Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, François Ruffin and Clémentine Autain. With the Socialists set to decide their involvement after June municipal elections and major groups such as La France Insoumise and the Communists already refusing to join, traders now assign a 57.5 % probability to cancellation. Tondelier retains the strongest organized support at 28.5 %, yet ongoing coalition-building efforts outside the primary framework continue to erode momentum for a unified October vote.
The 2026 United Left primary is currently scheduled to be held on October 11, 2026, to select a joint candidate for the 2027 French presidential election among participating left-wing parties and movements.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination as a joint candidate of the participating left-wing parties and movements as a result of this election.
This market will resolve to “Canceled” if the organizers of the 2026 United Left primary officially announce that it will not take place, or if at least three of L’Après, Les Écologistes, Debout!, and Génération.s officially announce that they will not participate. A postponement of the scheduled date will not qualify.
If no qualifying nominee is announced by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In the case of ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on official announcements from the primary organizers or participating parties.
Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
音量
$51,603終了日
2026/10/11マーケット開始日
May 5, 2026, 7:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent fractures within France’s Socialist Party have sharply increased the likelihood that the planned October 2026 United Left primary will not occur. On 8 May 2026, parliamentary group leader Boris Vallaud resigned from party leadership and took roughly one-third of national officials with him, citing disagreements over participation in the primary process initiated last November by figures including Marine Tondelier, Olivier Faure, François Ruffin and Clémentine Autain. With the Socialists set to decide their involvement after June municipal elections and major groups such as La France Insoumise and the Communists already refusing to join, traders now assign a 57.5 % probability to cancellation. Tondelier retains the strongest organized support at 28.5 %, yet ongoing coalition-building efforts outside the primary framework continue to erode momentum for a unified October vote.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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