Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to install his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor shortly afterward. The new leader has issued only written statements and remains absent from public view amid persistent reports of injuries, surgeries, and health complications, shifting real authority toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. These developments, combined with ongoing military tensions and internal power consolidation by hard-line security figures, underpin trader assessments of additional leadership shifts by mid- or year-end dates. Key upcoming catalysts include any public confirmation of Mojtaba’s status, diplomatic negotiations, or visible fractures within the clerical-military establishment that could accelerate further transitions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日$13,668,872 Vol.
2026/06/30
5月31日
6%
6月30日
13%
12月31日
34%
$13,668,872 Vol.
5月31日
$1,986,348 Vol.
6%
6月30日
$1,089,231 Vol.
13%
12月31日
$2,397,412 Vol.
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to install his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor shortly afterward. The new leader has issued only written statements and remains absent from public view amid persistent reports of injuries, surgeries, and health complications, shifting real authority toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. These developments, combined with ongoing military tensions and internal power consolidation by hard-line security figures, underpin trader assessments of additional leadership shifts by mid- or year-end dates. Key upcoming catalysts include any public confirmation of Mojtaba’s status, diplomatic negotiations, or visible fractures within the clerical-military establishment that could accelerate further transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
マーケット開始日： Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ET
音量
$13,668,872終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to install his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor shortly afterward. The new leader has issued only written statements and remains absent from public view amid persistent reports of injuries, surgeries, and health complications, shifting real authority toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. These developments, combined with ongoing military tensions and internal power consolidation by hard-line security figures, underpin trader assessments of additional leadership shifts by mid- or year-end dates. Key upcoming catalysts include any public confirmation of Mojtaba’s status, diplomatic negotiations, or visible fractures within the clerical-military establishment that could accelerate further transitions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
音量
$13,668,872終了日
2026/12/31マーケット開始日
Mar 24, 2026, 4:18 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei in late February 2026, prompting the Assembly of Experts to install his son, Mojtaba Khamenei, as successor shortly afterward. The new leader has issued only written statements and remains absent from public view amid persistent reports of injuries, surgeries, and health complications, shifting real authority toward Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps commanders. These developments, combined with ongoing military tensions and internal power consolidation by hard-line security figures, underpin trader assessments of additional leadership shifts by mid- or year-end dates. Key upcoming catalysts include any public confirmation of Mojtaba’s status, diplomatic negotiations, or visible fractures within the clerical-military establishment that could accelerate further transitions.
Polymarketデータを参照したAI生成の実験的な要約。これは取引アドバイスではなく、このマーケットの解決方法には一切関係ありません。 · 更新日
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