Intense speculation over Pep Guardiola’s future at Manchester City is fueling the elevated implied probability for an exit by the end of 2026. With his contract running until summer 2027, recent reports indicate the club is advancing contingency plans and considering candidates such as Enzo Maresca, while Guardiola has repeatedly stressed he still has one year remaining and intends to honor the deal. Following a decade at the Etihad and after City’s latest FA Cup final appearance, insiders note growing anticipation of a summer departure amid questions about his energy levels and long-term commitment. Trader sentiment reflects the likelihood that Guardiola steps away well before the contract’s expiration, though any late-season decision or extension talks could shift the market.