Historical penalty conversion rates in World Cup matches and major international tournaments average near 78%, aligning closely with the 79% implied probability that traders assign to a made first kick. This reflects consistent shooter advantages from spot placement, run-up technique, and goalkeeper reaction constraints under tournament pressure. Recent pre-tournament form from participating nations shows no widespread goalkeeper injuries or notable defensive vulnerabilities that would shift those baseline odds, while the opening fixture's competitive balance favors standard execution over high-variance saves. Upset potential remains if the initial penalty involves a less-experienced taker or extreme conditions, though such scenarios occur infrequently based on prior editions.