Recent IMF projections have anchored trader sentiment around 3.0–3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, following the April World Economic Outlook downgrade from 3.3 percent amid the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price pressures. The closely matched 38.1 percent and 37.4 percent odds on the 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes reflect this baseline consensus, while the elevated 34.8 percent probability on 3.6 percent captures residual optimism from pre-conflict technology investment and accommodative financial conditions. Competitive dynamics hinge on the duration of geopolitical disruptions, with downside scenarios pushing growth toward 2.5 percent or lower and upside revisions possible if tensions ease faster than assumed. Key upcoming catalysts include the next IMF update and May–June inflation and trade data releases that will clarify whether the 3.1 percent reference forecast holds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트3.2% 13.8%
≤2.9% 13%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 2.5%
$17,411 거래량
$17,411 거래량
2027.01.15
≤2.9%
13%
3.0%
38%
3.1%
37%
3.2%
24%
3.3%
2%
3.4%
8%
3.5%
1%
3.6%
36%
3.7% 이상
22%
3.2% 13.8%
≤2.9% 13%
3.4% 7.8%
3.3% 2.5%
$17,411 거래량
$17,411 거래량
2027.01.15
≤2.9%
$3,756 거래량
13%
3.0%
$481 거래량
38%
3.1%
$470 거래량
37%
3.2%
$1,691 거래량
24%
3.3%
$3,242 거래량
2%
3.4%
$3,527 거래량
8%
3.5%
$3,006 거래량
1%
3.6%
$452 거래량
36%
3.7% 이상
$787 거래량
22%
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections have anchored trader sentiment around 3.0–3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, following the April World Economic Outlook downgrade from 3.3 percent amid the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price pressures. The closely matched 38.1 percent and 37.4 percent odds on the 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes reflect this baseline consensus, while the elevated 34.8 percent probability on 3.6 percent captures residual optimism from pre-conflict technology investment and accommodative financial conditions. Competitive dynamics hinge on the duration of geopolitical disruptions, with downside scenarios pushing growth toward 2.5 percent or lower and upside revisions possible if tensions ease faster than assumed. Key upcoming catalysts include the next IMF update and May–June inflation and trade data releases that will clarify whether the 3.1 percent reference forecast holds.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
마켓 개설일: Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ET
거래량
$17,411종료일
2027.01.15마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent IMF projections have anchored trader sentiment around 3.0–3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, following the April World Economic Outlook downgrade from 3.3 percent amid the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price pressures. The closely matched 38.1 percent and 37.4 percent odds on the 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes reflect this baseline consensus, while the elevated 34.8 percent probability on 3.6 percent captures residual optimism from pre-conflict technology investment and accommodative financial conditions. Competitive dynamics hinge on the duration of geopolitical disruptions, with downside scenarios pushing growth toward 2.5 percent or lower and upside revisions possible if tensions ease faster than assumed. Key upcoming catalysts include the next IMF update and May–June inflation and trade data releases that will clarify whether the 3.1 percent reference forecast holds.
This Market will resolve according to the estimate of the World GDP growth rate (Real GDP, annual percent change) reported by the International Monetary Fund in the World Economic Outlook Update released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, expected to be released in January 2027.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant figure may be found in the table titled “World Economic Outlook Growth Projections” under “Estimate” in the row “World Output” and the column “2026”. Changes in the IMF’s World Economic Outlook reporting format will not disqualify a published figure from counting.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.imf.org/en/publications/weo
If no estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in world real GDP is released in a World Economic Outlook Update between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve according to the published figure for 2026 annual percent change in World real GDP in the April 2027 edition of the World Economic Outlook. If no such figure is published by April 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
If multiple World Economic Outlook Updates are released between the October 2026 and April 2027 editions of the World Economic Outlook, this market will resolve based on the first such publication which includes an estimate of the 2026 annual percent change in World GDP. Projections of World GDP, however, will not be considered.
Note: data from the initial release of the referenced GDP report is what will be used to resolve this market. Data may be revised during the following release or as a part of the next estimate's publication, however any revisions to GDP report data made after the initial release will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports annual percent change in world real GDP to one decimal point (e.g. 3.3%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
거래량
$17,411종료일
2027.01.15마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 11:18 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent IMF projections have anchored trader sentiment around 3.0–3.1 percent global GDP growth for 2026, following the April World Economic Outlook downgrade from 3.3 percent amid the Middle East conflict and associated energy-price pressures. The closely matched 38.1 percent and 37.4 percent odds on the 3.0 percent and 3.1 percent outcomes reflect this baseline consensus, while the elevated 34.8 percent probability on 3.6 percent captures residual optimism from pre-conflict technology investment and accommodative financial conditions. Competitive dynamics hinge on the duration of geopolitical disruptions, with downside scenarios pushing growth toward 2.5 percent or lower and upside revisions possible if tensions ease faster than assumed. Key upcoming catalysts include the next IMF update and May–June inflation and trade data releases that will clarify whether the 3.1 percent reference forecast holds.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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