Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, voiced in April 2026 amid U.S. actions against Iran and the effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained trader focus on potential supply-chain shocks. Oil transit volumes through the strait averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2025 and remain rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope for most Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. East Coast cargoes, inflating shipping costs and extending transit times by 10–14 days. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term closure probability because no attacks on commercial vessels have resumed since the October 2025 ceasefire, though elevated insurance premiums and analyst warnings of $120–150 per barrel oil if both chokepoints remain blocked continue to price in tail-risk volatility. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or de-escalation talks that could alter Houthi incentives before summer.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$2,891,511 거래량
2026.04.30
5월 31일
5%
6월 30일
14%
9월 30일
25%
$2,891,511 거래량
5월 31일
$861,066 거래량
5%
6월 30일
$39,392 거래량
14%
9월 30일
$9,117 거래량
25%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, voiced in April 2026 amid U.S. actions against Iran and the effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained trader focus on potential supply-chain shocks. Oil transit volumes through the strait averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2025 and remain rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope for most Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. East Coast cargoes, inflating shipping costs and extending transit times by 10–14 days. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term closure probability because no attacks on commercial vessels have resumed since the October 2025 ceasefire, though elevated insurance premiums and analyst warnings of $120–150 per barrel oil if both chokepoints remain blocked continue to price in tail-risk volatility. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or de-escalation talks that could alter Houthi incentives before summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
마켓 개설일: Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
거래량
$2,891,511종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c
, including both the chart and downloadable files.Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, voiced in April 2026 amid U.S. actions against Iran and the effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained trader focus on potential supply-chain shocks. Oil transit volumes through the strait averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2025 and remain rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope for most Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. East Coast cargoes, inflating shipping costs and extending transit times by 10–14 days. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term closure probability because no attacks on commercial vessels have resumed since the October 2025 ceasefire, though elevated insurance premiums and analyst warnings of $120–150 per barrel oil if both chokepoints remain blocked continue to price in tail-risk volatility. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or de-escalation talks that could alter Houthi incentives before summer.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait less than or equal to 10 for any date between market creation and the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
This market will resolve as soon as IMF PortWatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait equal to or below 10, or once data has been published for the listed date and no such value has been published.
If no data has been published for the listed date within 14 calendar days (ET) after that date, this market will resolve based on the data published up to that point.
Revisions to previously published data points made before data has been published for the listed date will be considered; however, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions made after data has been published for the listed date will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
거래량
$2,891,511종료일
2026.04.30마켓 개설일
Apr 14, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent Houthi threats to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, voiced in April 2026 amid U.S. actions against Iran and the effective disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, have sustained trader focus on potential supply-chain shocks. Oil transit volumes through the strait averaged 4.2 million barrels per day in early 2025 and remain rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope for most Asia-Europe and Asia-U.S. East Coast cargoes, inflating shipping costs and extending transit times by 10–14 days. Market-implied odds reflect low near-term closure probability because no attacks on commercial vessels have resumed since the October 2025 ceasefire, though elevated insurance premiums and analyst warnings of $120–150 per barrel oil if both chokepoints remain blocked continue to price in tail-risk volatility. Key upcoming catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran tensions or de-escalation talks that could alter Houthi incentives before summer.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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