Recent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트5.00-5.49% 37.0%
4.50-4.99% 30.1%
5.50-5.99% 18.4%
6.00-6.49% 5.5%
$67,740 거래량
$67,740 거래량
2027.01.12
<3.00%
1%
3.00-3.49%
1%
3.50-3.99%
1%
4.00-4.49%
4%
4.50-4.99%
30%
5.00-5.49%
37%
5.50-5.99%
18%
6.00-6.49%
5%
6.50-6.99%
3%
7.00% 이상
2%
5.00-5.49% 37.0%
4.50-4.99% 30.1%
5.50-5.99% 18.4%
6.00-6.49% 5.5%
$67,740 거래량
$67,740 거래량
2027.01.12
<3.00%
$4,677 거래량
1%
3.00-3.49%
$4,444 거래량
1%
3.50-3.99%
$11,894 거래량
1%
4.00-4.49%
$8,873 거래량
4%
4.50-4.99%
$8,957 거래량
30%
5.00-5.49%
$7,458 거래량
37%
5.50-5.99%
$6,210 거래량
18%
6.00-6.49%
$5,481 거래량
5%
6.50-6.99%
$5,871 거래량
3%
7.00% 이상
$3,873 거래량
2%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
마켓 개설일: Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ET
거래량
$67,740종료일
2027.01.12마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.htmlRecent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Brazil over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) during the 12-month period ending December 2026 according to the monthly IBGE report.
The resolution source for this market will be the IBGE Extended National Consumer Price Index monthly report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
You can find the relevant figure by locating the report for December 2026 on the Press Releases page (https://agenciadenoticias.ibge.gov.br/en/agencia-press-room.html), locating the Period-Rate table and finding the IPCA growth rate figure in the column labeled "Rate" and the Row labeled “Cumulative in the year / 12 Months”. Changes in the IBGE’s reporting format will not disqualify a published relevant figure from counting.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly IBGE IPCA news release which reports inflation during 12-month periods to two decimal points (e.g. 4.26%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.ibge.gov.br/en/calendar.html
거래량
$67,740종료일
2027.01.12마켓 개설일
Jan 23, 2026, 10:35 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent May 2026 IPCA data showing a rise to 4.72% year-over-year—driven by elevated food, housing, and energy prices amid geopolitical supply disruptions—has lifted market-implied odds for Brazil’s full-year 2026 inflation into the 5.00–5.99% range. Central Bank Focus survey forecasts have fluctuated between roughly 4.0% and 5.0% as analysts incorporate ongoing oil-price pressures and El Niño risks, yet remain below the upper end of the 3.0% ±1.5% target band. With the two leading Polymarket bins separated by just 2.8 percentage points, traders appear to weigh the persistence of recent price momentum against the potential for monetary-policy restraint and seasonal moderation to pull the annual print lower. Key upcoming releases, including June IPCA and Copom communications, will likely determine whether expectations stabilize near current levels or shift.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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