Arsenal maintains an 82.5% implied probability in the Premier League title race thanks to its two-point cushion atop the table after 36 matches, with superior recent form and a favorable schedule that includes home fixtures against Burnley and Crystal Palace. Manchester City, at 17.5%, has kept pressure on through strong attacking output and a better goal difference, but trails by two points after a late-season surge that included victories over Brentford and Crystal Palace. The Gunners’ defensive solidity and consistent results since the winter have limited City’s ability to close the gap fully, while both sides face limited rest ahead of the final weekend. Traders view Arsenal’s path to clinching the title with one game to spare as the most likely scenario given the current standings and head-to-head context.