Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against Google releasing Gemini 4.0—a next-generation large language model—by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, previews, or roadmaps from Google DeepMind or the Gemini API changelog. Instead, the company continues rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.1 series, with gemini-3.1-flash-lite reaching general availability on May 7 amid deprecations of older 2.x models. Historical patterns show major version jumps, like Gemini 3 in November 2025 following 2.5 in June, typically span months from preview to full public rollout. Google I/O on May 19-20 may unveil updates or a 4.0 preview, but traders doubt a complete release within six weeks, barring an unprecedented accelerated deployment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$54,077 거래량
$54,077 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$54,077 거래량
$54,077 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against Google releasing Gemini 4.0—a next-generation large language model—by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, previews, or roadmaps from Google DeepMind or the Gemini API changelog. Instead, the company continues rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.1 series, with gemini-3.1-flash-lite reaching general availability on May 7 amid deprecations of older 2.x models. Historical patterns show major version jumps, like Gemini 3 in November 2025 following 2.5 in June, typically span months from preview to full public rollout. Google I/O on May 19-20 may unveil updates or a 4.0 preview, but traders doubt a complete release within six weeks, barring an unprecedented accelerated deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ET
거래량
$54,077종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against Google releasing Gemini 4.0—a next-generation large language model—by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, previews, or roadmaps from Google DeepMind or the Gemini API changelog. Instead, the company continues rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.1 series, with gemini-3.1-flash-lite reaching general availability on May 7 amid deprecations of older 2.x models. Historical patterns show major version jumps, like Gemini 3 in November 2025 following 2.5 in June, typically span months from preview to full public rollout. Google I/O on May 19-20 may unveil updates or a 4.0 preview, but traders doubt a complete release within six weeks, barring an unprecedented accelerated deployment.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's Gemini 4.0 Flash model is made available to the general public by the listed date. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," Gemini 4.0 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public.
Gemini 4.0 refers to a product explicitly named Gemini 4.0 or one that is recognized as a successor to Gemini 3 similar to the progression from Gemini 2.0 to Gemini 3. Products labeled as Gemini 3.0 Flash, Gemini 2.5, or similar will not count for this market's resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$54,077종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 12, 2025, 4:46 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a 92% implied probability against Google releasing Gemini 4.0—a next-generation large language model—by June 30, 2026, driven by the absence of any official announcements, previews, or roadmaps from Google DeepMind or the Gemini API changelog. Instead, the company continues rapid iteration on the Gemini 3.1 series, with gemini-3.1-flash-lite reaching general availability on May 7 amid deprecations of older 2.x models. Historical patterns show major version jumps, like Gemini 3 in November 2025 following 2.5 in June, typically span months from preview to full public rollout. Google I/O on May 19-20 may unveil updates or a 4.0 preview, but traders doubt a complete release within six weeks, barring an unprecedented accelerated deployment.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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