The limited scale of the recent Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship—now totaling 11 confirmed and probable cases with three deaths—continues to anchor trader consensus at 92% probability against a major hantavirus outbreak by June 30. CDC surveillance shows zero U.S. cases as of mid-May despite monitoring 41 exposed individuals across 16 states, consistent with the virus’s primary rodent-to-human transmission route via urine or droppings rather than sustained person-to-person spread. Historical U.S. data since 1993 record only sporadic HPS cases averaging under 30 annually, with no precedent for rapid nationwide escalation from isolated travel-related clusters. Key variables that could shift odds include new laboratory-confirmed secondary transmissions or a spike in acute respiratory cases reported by state health departments before the end of the month.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 한타바이러스 발병?
6월 30일까지 한타바이러스 발병?
예
$27,918 거래량
$27,918 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$27,918 거래량
$27,918 거래량
2026.06.30
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The limited scale of the recent Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship—now totaling 11 confirmed and probable cases with three deaths—continues to anchor trader consensus at 92% probability against a major hantavirus outbreak by June 30. CDC surveillance shows zero U.S. cases as of mid-May despite monitoring 41 exposed individuals across 16 states, consistent with the virus’s primary rodent-to-human transmission route via urine or droppings rather than sustained person-to-person spread. Historical U.S. data since 1993 record only sporadic HPS cases averaging under 30 annually, with no precedent for rapid nationwide escalation from isolated travel-related clusters. Key variables that could shift odds include new laboratory-confirmed secondary transmissions or a spike in acute respiratory cases reported by state health departments before the end of the month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
마켓 개설일: May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ET
거래량
$27,918종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
The limited scale of the recent Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship—now totaling 11 confirmed and probable cases with three deaths—continues to anchor trader consensus at 92% probability against a major hantavirus outbreak by June 30. CDC surveillance shows zero U.S. cases as of mid-May despite monitoring 41 exposed individuals across 16 states, consistent with the virus’s primary rodent-to-human transmission route via urine or droppings rather than sustained person-to-person spread. Historical U.S. data since 1993 record only sporadic HPS cases averaging under 30 annually, with no precedent for rapid nationwide escalation from isolated travel-related clusters. Key variables that could shift odds include new laboratory-confirmed secondary transmissions or a spike in acute respiratory cases reported by state health departments before the end of the month.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization (WHO) officially declares the hantavirus (or any strain or outbreak of the hantavirus) a Public Health Emergency of International Concern by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Only a determination that the hantavirus is a Public Health Emergency of International Concern will qualify. Other designations will not be considered.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the WHO; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
거래량
$27,918종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
May 11, 2026, 4:05 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The limited scale of the recent Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship—now totaling 11 confirmed and probable cases with three deaths—continues to anchor trader consensus at 92% probability against a major hantavirus outbreak by June 30. CDC surveillance shows zero U.S. cases as of mid-May despite monitoring 41 exposed individuals across 16 states, consistent with the virus’s primary rodent-to-human transmission route via urine or droppings rather than sustained person-to-person spread. Historical U.S. data since 1993 record only sporadic HPS cases averaging under 30 annually, with no precedent for rapid nationwide escalation from isolated travel-related clusters. Key variables that could shift odds include new laboratory-confirmed secondary transmissions or a spike in acute respiratory cases reported by state health departments before the end of the month.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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