India’s retail inflation trajectory for 2026 remains anchored near the upper end of the Reserve Bank of India’s 2–6 percent tolerance band, with the central bank’s April 2026 projection placing full-year CPI at 4.6 percent. This outlook incorporates elevated energy costs stemming from West Asian supply disruptions and the risk of below-normal monsoon rainfall, both of which have prompted upward revisions by institutions including Goldman Sachs. Recent CPI prints near 3.4–3.5 percent reflect a favorable base effect and lower food weights under the newly revised 2024 series, yet core measures and household inflation expectations continue to signal persistent underlying pressures. Traders therefore assign an 83 percent implied probability to an annual average at or above 4.50 percent, reflecting the market’s assessment that these supply-side risks outweigh the current disinflationary momentum ahead of the June monsoon onset and subsequent FOMC-aligned policy decisions.