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정치·모이타바

... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?

icon for ... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?
정치·모이타바

... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?

$13,493,231 거래량

2026.05.31
Polymarket

$13,493,231 거래량

Polymarket

5월 31일

$1,870,583 거래량

8%

6월 30일

$1,044,494 거래량

15%

12월 31일

$2,382,272 거래량

37%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$13,493,231
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader sentiment on Iranian leadership change reflects uncertainty over Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei's capacity to lead amid the ongoing US-Iran war, following his father Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's death in US-Israeli strikes on February 28, 2026, and his own appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March. Recent reports from April-May detail Mojtaba's severe injuries from the same attacks—including facial burns, leg surgeries requiring a prosthetic, and speech difficulties—coupled with his absence from public view and reliance on couriers, audio approvals, and alleged AI-generated videos for communications. This fuels speculation of internal power struggles among IRGC commanders and clerics during ceasefire negotiations, with US intelligence questioning his influence and potential for further transitions before year-end amid stalled talks and escalation risks.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.

An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$13,493,231
종료일
2026.12.31
마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

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자주 묻는 질문

"... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?"은 6개의 가능한 결과가 있는 Polymarket의 예측 마켓으로, 트레이더들이 어떤 결과가 발생할지에 따라 주식을 매수 및 매도합니다. 현재 선두 결과는 37%의 "12월 31일"이며, 이어서 14%의 "6월 30일"입니다. 가격은 실시간 크라우드소싱 확률을 반영합니다. 예를 들어 37¢에 거래되는 주식은 마켓이 해당 결과에 37%의 확률을 부여함을 의미합니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들이 새로운 진전과 정보에 반응함에 따라 지속적으로 변화합니다. 정확한 결과의 주식은 마켓 정산 시 각 $1에 교환 가능합니다.

오늘 현재 "... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?"은 총 $13.5 million의 거래량을 생성했습니다 마켓이 Mar 9, 2026에 시작된 이후. 이 수준의 거래 활동은 Polymarket 커뮤니티의 강한 참여를 반영하며 현재 확률이 깊은 참가자 풀에 의해 정보에 기반하도록 보장합니다. 이 페이지에서 실시간 가격 변동을 추적하고 모든 결과에 직접 거래할 수 있습니다.

"... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?"에서 거래하려면 이 페이지에 나열된 6개의 가용 결과를 탐색하세요. 각 결과에는 마켓의 내재 확률을 나타내는 현재 가격이 표시됩니다. 포지션을 잡으려면 가장 가능성이 높다고 생각하는 결과를 선택하고, 찬성이면 "Yes", 반대이면 "No"를 선택하고, 금액을 입력하고 "거래"를 클릭하세요. 마켓이 정산될 때 선택한 결과가 맞으면 "Yes" 주식은 각 $1을 지급합니다. 틀리면 $0을 지급합니다. 수익을 확정하거나 손실을 줄이고 싶다면 정산 전 언제든지 주식을 매도할 수 있습니다.

"... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?"의 현재 유력 후보는 37%의 "12월 31일"이며, 마켓이 해당 결과에 37%의 확률을 부여합니다. 두 번째로 가까운 결과는 14%의 "6월 30일"입니다. 이 확률은 트레이더들의 주식 매수 및 매도에 따라 실시간으로 업데이트되어 가장 가능성 있는 결과에 대한 최신 집단 시각을 반영합니다. 새로운 정보가 나타남에 따라 확률이 어떻게 변화하는지 자주 확인하거나 이 페이지를 북마크하세요.

"... 에 의한 이란의 지도력 변화?"의 정산 규칙은 각 결과가 승자로 선언되기 위해 정확히 무엇이 일어나야 하는지를 정의합니다 — 결과를 결정하는 데 사용되는 공식 데이터 소스를 포함합니다. 이 페이지의 댓글 위 "규칙" 섹션에서 완전한 정산 기준을 검토할 수 있습니다. 거래 전 규칙을 주의 깊게 읽는 것을 권장합니다. 이 마켓이 어떻게 정산되는지를 관리하는 정확한 조건, 예외 사항, 출처를 명시하고 있습니다.