Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Iran’s Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Power has since shifted toward a narrower group of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba remaining largely absent from public view and reports indicating possible injuries sustained in the initial strikes. These developments, coupled with ongoing diplomatic contacts and questions over institutional stability, shape trader assessments of whether another leadership transition will occur before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트$13,670,370 거래량
2026.05.31
5월 31일
7%
6월 30일
13%
12월 31일
34%
$13,670,370 거래량
5월 31일
$1,987,647 거래량
7%
6월 30일
$1,089,430 거래량
13%
12월 31일
$2,397,412 거래량
34%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Iran’s Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Power has since shifted toward a narrower group of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba remaining largely absent from public view and reports indicating possible injuries sustained in the initial strikes. These developments, coupled with ongoing diplomatic contacts and questions over institutional stability, shape trader assessments of whether another leadership transition will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
마켓 개설일: Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ET
거래량
$13,670,370종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Iran’s Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Power has since shifted toward a narrower group of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba remaining largely absent from public view and reports indicating possible injuries sustained in the initial strikes. These developments, coupled with ongoing diplomatic contacts and questions over institutional stability, shape trader assessments of whether another leadership transition will occur before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe.
An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
거래량
$13,670,370종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Mar 24, 2026, 4:16 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. and Israeli strikes in late February 2026 killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, prompting Iran’s Assembly of Experts to select his son Mojtaba Khamenei as successor in early March. Power has since shifted toward a narrower group of IRGC commanders and security officials, with Mojtaba remaining largely absent from public view and reports indicating possible injuries sustained in the initial strikes. These developments, coupled with ongoing diplomatic contacts and questions over institutional stability, shape trader assessments of whether another leadership transition will occur before year-end.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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