Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve governor on May 12, with a chair vote imminent before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, sets up his leadership of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, yet trader consensus prices a 96.4% "No" probability on rate cuts due to stubbornly elevated inflation and hawkish policy signals. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the prior FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid record dissents, while CME FedWatch shows over 95% odds of no change. Warsh's historical hawkishness and vows of monetary policy independence counterbalance administration pressure for easing. Only abrupt labor market deterioration, deflationary shocks, or financial turmoil could shift this outlook before resolution.
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The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve governor on May 12, with a chair vote imminent before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, sets up his leadership of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, yet trader consensus prices a 96.4% "No" probability on rate cuts due to stubbornly elevated inflation and hawkish policy signals. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the prior FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid record dissents, while CME FedWatch shows over 95% odds of no change. Warsh's historical hawkishness and vows of monetary policy independence counterbalance administration pressure for easing. Only abrupt labor market deterioration, deflationary shocks, or financial turmoil could shift this outlook before resolution.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
마켓 개설일: Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ET
거래량
$7,070마켓 개설일
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve governor on May 12, with a chair vote imminent before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, sets up his leadership of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, yet trader consensus prices a 96.4% "No" probability on rate cuts due to stubbornly elevated inflation and hawkish policy signals. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the prior FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid record dissents, while CME FedWatch shows over 95% odds of no change. Warsh's historical hawkishness and vows of monetary policy independence counterbalance administration pressure for easing. Only abrupt labor market deterioration, deflationary shocks, or financial turmoil could shift this outlook before resolution.
The Fed interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Fed decreases the upper bound of the target federal funds range as a result of the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No"
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after the first FOMC Meeting for which Kevin Warsh holds the position of Chair of the Federal Reserve. The FOMC calendar may be viewed at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds range is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
If Kevin Warsh’s nomination for Chair of the Federal Reserve is formally withdrawn, or otherwise finally rejected, or if no qualifying meeting occurs by December 31, 2026 (ET), this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to "No".
거래량
$7,070마켓 개설일
Apr 17, 2026, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Senate confirmation of Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve governor on May 12, with a chair vote imminent before Jerome Powell's May 15 term end, sets up his leadership of the June 16-17 FOMC meeting, yet trader consensus prices a 96.4% "No" probability on rate cuts due to stubbornly elevated inflation and hawkish policy signals. April CPI accelerated to 3.8% year-over-year—the highest since May 2023—prompting the prior FOMC to hold the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75% amid record dissents, while CME FedWatch shows over 95% odds of no change. Warsh's historical hawkishness and vows of monetary policy independence counterbalance administration pressure for easing. Only abrupt labor market deterioration, deflationary shocks, or financial turmoil could shift this outlook before resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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