The brief window until June 30 and the extreme rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes explain the market’s strong tilt toward “No.” Globally, such megaquakes occur on average only once every several years, and USGS data through mid-May show only moderate background activity, with the largest recent events reaching 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan in April. That April Sanriku quake temporarily raised Japan Meteorological Agency odds of an immediate follow-on M8+ to roughly 1 percent, but the advisory has since expired and no comparable stress transfer or foreshock sequences are currently detected along major subduction zones. Ongoing satellite and deep-sea sensor readings continue to indicate locked but stable plate boundaries without accelerated slip, keeping short-term probabilities low.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$66,081 거래량
$66,081 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$66,081 거래량
$66,081 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief window until June 30 and the extreme rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes explain the market’s strong tilt toward “No.” Globally, such megaquakes occur on average only once every several years, and USGS data through mid-May show only moderate background activity, with the largest recent events reaching 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan in April. That April Sanriku quake temporarily raised Japan Meteorological Agency odds of an immediate follow-on M8+ to roughly 1 percent, but the advisory has since expired and no comparable stress transfer or foreshock sequences are currently detected along major subduction zones. Ongoing satellite and deep-sea sensor readings continue to indicate locked but stable plate boundaries without accelerated slip, keeping short-term probabilities low.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$66,081종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.The brief window until June 30 and the extreme rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes explain the market’s strong tilt toward “No.” Globally, such megaquakes occur on average only once every several years, and USGS data through mid-May show only moderate background activity, with the largest recent events reaching 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan in April. That April Sanriku quake temporarily raised Japan Meteorological Agency odds of an immediate follow-on M8+ to roughly 1 percent, but the advisory has since expired and no comparable stress transfer or foreshock sequences are currently detected along major subduction zones. Ongoing satellite and deep-sea sensor readings continue to indicate locked but stable plate boundaries without accelerated slip, keeping short-term probabilities low.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$66,081종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The brief window until June 30 and the extreme rarity of magnitude 8+ earthquakes explain the market’s strong tilt toward “No.” Globally, such megaquakes occur on average only once every several years, and USGS data through mid-May show only moderate background activity, with the largest recent events reaching 7.5 in Tonga and 7.4 off Japan in April. That April Sanriku quake temporarily raised Japan Meteorological Agency odds of an immediate follow-on M8+ to roughly 1 percent, but the advisory has since expired and no comparable stress transfer or foreshock sequences are currently detected along major subduction zones. Ongoing satellite and deep-sea sensor readings continue to indicate locked but stable plate boundaries without accelerated slip, keeping short-term probabilities low.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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