Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
6월 30일까지 메가 지진이 발생하나요?
예
$66,081 거래량
$66,081 거래량
2026.06.30
예
$66,081 거래량
$66,081 거래량
2026.06.30
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
마켓 개설일: Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ET
거래량
$66,081종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
A "megaquake" is defined as an earthquake with a magnitude of 8.0 or greater.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 8.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until the end of the seventh day after the resolution time, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
거래량
$66,081종료일
2026.06.30마켓 개설일
Dec 29, 2025, 6:00 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket strongly favors "No" at 92% implied probability for a megaquake—defined as magnitude 8.0 or greater worldwide—by June 30, driven by the extreme rarity of such events, occurring roughly once per year globally based on historical USGS records spanning subduction zones like Nankai Trough, Japan Trench, and Cascadia. A magnitude 7.7 offshore Japan quake on April 20 prompted a brief government advisory elevating short-term risk to about 1% for a follow-on M8+, but seismic activity normalized without escalation, as confirmed by ongoing USGS monitoring showing steady global patterns with no unusual foreshocks or strain buildup. While earthquakes remain unpredictable, realistic challenges include sudden megathrust rupture amid current quiet conditions; watch USGS real-time feeds for any shifts ahead of resolution.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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