Oklahoma City Thunder’s status as defending champions and Western Conference frontrunners has positioned Shai Gilgeous-Alexander as the clear market leader at 65.5 percent for Western Conference Finals MVP, driven by his recent regular-season dominance and strong playoff form. The Thunder’s depth and defensive schemes against high-usage opponents like Victor Wembanyama contribute to the gap, with Wembanyama holding the next-highest implied probability at 32.5 percent on the strength of the Spurs’ second-seed finish and his own scoring outbursts. Teammates such as Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren sit lower in trader consensus, reflecting the market’s view that the series outcome hinges primarily on star production rather than supporting cast contributions. Recent head-to-head results and injury reports have reinforced this positioning without major shifts in the past week.