Trader sentiment assigns a 79% implied probability against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker triggering before 2027, driven primarily by persistently low equity volatility and resilient macroeconomic conditions. With the VIX near multi-year lows and major indices advancing amid moderating inflation readings and stable labor market data, the odds of a single-day S&P 500 decline reaching the 7% threshold remain constrained. Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasizing a data-dependent policy path have further reduced tail risks, keeping implied rate volatility contained. Upcoming catalysts such as the June FOMC meeting and second-quarter corporate earnings releases could introduce short-term swings, yet current forward-looking indicators point to limited potential for the sharp, broad-based selloff required to activate circuit breakers.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$52,823 거래량
$52,823 거래량
2026.12.31
예
$52,823 거래량
$52,823 거래량
2026.12.31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment assigns a 79% implied probability against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker triggering before 2027, driven primarily by persistently low equity volatility and resilient macroeconomic conditions. With the VIX near multi-year lows and major indices advancing amid moderating inflation readings and stable labor market data, the odds of a single-day S&P 500 decline reaching the 7% threshold remain constrained. Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasizing a data-dependent policy path have further reduced tail risks, keeping implied rate volatility contained. Upcoming catalysts such as the June FOMC meeting and second-quarter corporate earnings releases could introduce short-term swings, yet current forward-looking indicators point to limited potential for the sharp, broad-based selloff required to activate circuit breakers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
마켓 개설일: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
거래량
$52,823종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader sentiment assigns a 79% implied probability against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker triggering before 2027, driven primarily by persistently low equity volatility and resilient macroeconomic conditions. With the VIX near multi-year lows and major indices advancing amid moderating inflation readings and stable labor market data, the odds of a single-day S&P 500 decline reaching the 7% threshold remain constrained. Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasizing a data-dependent policy path have further reduced tail risks, keeping implied rate volatility contained. Upcoming catalysts such as the June FOMC meeting and second-quarter corporate earnings releases could introduce short-term swings, yet current forward-looking indicators point to limited potential for the sharp, broad-based selloff required to activate circuit breakers.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
거래량
$52,823종료일
2026.12.31마켓 개설일
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader sentiment assigns a 79% implied probability against an NYSE marketwide circuit breaker triggering before 2027, driven primarily by persistently low equity volatility and resilient macroeconomic conditions. With the VIX near multi-year lows and major indices advancing amid moderating inflation readings and stable labor market data, the odds of a single-day S&P 500 decline reaching the 7% threshold remain constrained. Recent Federal Reserve communications emphasizing a data-dependent policy path have further reduced tail risks, keeping implied rate volatility contained. Upcoming catalysts such as the June FOMC meeting and second-quarter corporate earnings releases could introduce short-term swings, yet current forward-looking indicators point to limited potential for the sharp, broad-based selloff required to activate circuit breakers.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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