Russia and Ukraine continue to show limited recent form in advancing toward a full settlement, with their latest Geneva matchup in February producing no breakthrough on core territorial and security demands. Ukraine maintains strong resistance to any land concessions while Russia shows little urgency to resume talks, as evidenced by Foreign Minister Lavrov’s April comments and ongoing military positioning. Short-term truces around Easter and Victory Day have provided brief momentum shifts without altering the broader stalemate, leaving traders to price in a high implied probability that the sides will not reach peace in the near term.