Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.4% implied probability for "No," as the March 31, 2026 deadline elapsed without all three required critical incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity event occurred, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status, and Cloudflare reported no resolved "Critical" (red) incidents per their status pages. These cloud providers maintain high uptime through redundant infrastructure and rapid incident response, making simultaneous failures exceedingly rare. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal event outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, though such changes are uncommon given transparent dashboard logs; traders await final resolution confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트예
$14,339 거래량
$14,339 거래량
2026.03.31
예
$14,339 거래량
$14,339 거래량
2026.03.31
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.4% implied probability for "No," as the March 31, 2026 deadline elapsed without all three required critical incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity event occurred, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status, and Cloudflare reported no resolved "Critical" (red) incidents per their status pages. These cloud providers maintain high uptime through redundant infrastructure and rapid incident response, making simultaneous failures exceedingly rare. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal event outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, though such changes are uncommon given transparent dashboard logs; traders await final resolution confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
마켓 개설일: Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ET
거래량
$14,339종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.4% implied probability for "No," as the March 31, 2026 deadline elapsed without all three required critical incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity event occurred, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status, and Cloudflare reported no resolved "Critical" (red) incidents per their status pages. These cloud providers maintain high uptime through redundant infrastructure and rapid incident response, making simultaneous failures exceedingly rare. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal event outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, though such changes are uncommon given transparent dashboard logs; traders await final resolution confirmation.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
- AWS service disrupted
- Critical Discord Incident
- Critical Cloudflare incident
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met within the specified timeframe.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Services+Down+Parlay.pdf
거래량
$14,339종료일
2026.03.31마켓 개설일
Feb 11, 2026, 3:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's Services Down Parlay market reflects a 98.4% implied probability for "No," as the March 31, 2026 deadline elapsed without all three required critical incidents: an AWS "disrupted" severity event occurred, but Discord's issues peaked at "Major" (orange) status, and Cloudflare reported no resolved "Critical" (red) incidents per their status pages. These cloud providers maintain high uptime through redundant infrastructure and rapid incident response, making simultaneous failures exceedingly rare. Post-deadline events—like AWS's May 7 US-East-1 thermal event outage and Discord's May 8 API errors—do not qualify. Realistic risks include retroactive severity reclassifications or oracle disputes, though such changes are uncommon given transparent dashboard logs; traders await final resolution confirmation.
Polymarket 데이터를 참조하는 실험적 AI 생성 요약입니다. 이것은 거래 조언이 아니며 이 마켓의 정산에 영향을 미치지 않습니다. · 업데이트
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