Recent reports from multiple U.S. officials indicate the Department of Justice is actively preparing to seek a federal indictment against former Cuban leader Raúl Castro, 94, tied to his alleged role in the 1996 downing of two civilian planes operated by the Miami-based Brothers to the Rescue group. The Trump administration has signaled the charges could be unsealed in Miami as early as May 20, coinciding with Cuban independence commemorations and part of broader pressure on Havana. This development, building on revived state-level inquiries and congressional calls, has shifted trader consensus toward a greater than 50% likelihood of formal U.S. charges before the June 30 resolution date, though the need for grand jury approval and Castro’s advanced age introduce remaining uncertainty around timing and execution.