The market remains closely contested around 50-50 because persistent insider leaks and datamining of Valve projects like Deadlock continue to show active HLX development, including new systems and optimization milestones that suggest an announcement could still arrive in 2026. At the same time, Valve’s long history of secrecy, repeated rumor cycles that failed to materialize in late 2025, and focus on hardware like the upcoming Steam Machine have tempered trader expectations. Key swing factors include major events such as Summer Game Fest or The Game Awards later this year, where a surprise reveal remains possible but would break from the studio’s typical pattern of minimal marketing.