France enters the 2026 World Cup as the clear frontrunner to top Group I, reflecting its status as the top-ranked side, deep squad resources, and consistent recent results including strong qualifying and pre-tournament friendlies. Norway’s 24.5% implied probability stems from its first appearance since 1998, powered by Erling Haaland’s prolific form and an impressive qualifying campaign under Ståle Solbakken that showcased attacking potency. Senegal sits at 11.5% on the strength of its 2022 round-of-16 experience and unbeaten African qualifying path, though it faces a tougher European matchup dynamic. Iraq’s minimal 0.7% share aligns with its historic qualification breakthrough but limited depth against this level of opposition. The group opens June 16 with France facing Senegal and Iraq taking on Norway, setting up a compressed schedule where early results will quickly shape advancement odds.