Recent generic ballot surveys show Democrats holding a modest national edge of roughly 3 to 6 points over Republicans, consistent with the historical midterm penalty facing the president's party. This positioning keeps mid-single-digit Democratic margins among the most actively traded specific outcomes while the broad "Other" category leads overall, reflecting traders' caution about pinning an exact range 18 months out. Ongoing redistricting in states including Florida and Louisiana, combined with Republican retirements and early fundraising trends, add structural uncertainty that could compress or expand the final popular-vote spread. Primary season developments and any shifts in presidential approval remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could reallocate probability across the listed bins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoDemocrats 8-10% 16%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Democrats 6-8% 10%
Republicans 0-2% 9.4%
$35,099 Wol.
$35,099 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
3%
Democrats 14-16%
4%
Democrats 12-14%
4%
Democrats 10-12%
13%
Democrats 8-10%
16%
Democrats 6-8%
10%
Democrats 4-6%
7%
Democrats 2-4%
4%
Democrats 0-2%
5%
Republicans 0-2%
9%
Republicans 2-4%
8%
Republicans 4-6%
2%
Republicans 6%+
3%
Democrats 8-10% 16%
Democrats 10-12% 13%
Democrats 6-8% 10%
Republicans 0-2% 9.4%
$35,099 Wol.
$35,099 Wol.
Nov 3, 2026
Democrats 16%+
$804 Wol.
3%
Democrats 14-16%
$476 Wol.
4%
Democrats 12-14%
$462 Wol.
4%
Democrats 10-12%
$830 Wol.
13%
Democrats 8-10%
$1,555 Wol.
16%
Democrats 6-8%
$693 Wol.
10%
Democrats 4-6%
$258 Wol.
7%
Democrats 2-4%
$1,138 Wol.
4%
Democrats 0-2%
$889 Wol.
5%
Republicans 0-2%
$919 Wol.
9%
Republicans 2-4%
$26,044 Wol.
8%
Republicans 4-6%
$250 Wol.
2%
Republicans 6%+
$782 Wol.
3%
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot surveys show Democrats holding a modest national edge of roughly 3 to 6 points over Republicans, consistent with the historical midterm penalty facing the president's party. This positioning keeps mid-single-digit Democratic margins among the most actively traded specific outcomes while the broad "Other" category leads overall, reflecting traders' caution about pinning an exact range 18 months out. Ongoing redistricting in states including Florida and Louisiana, combined with Republican retirements and early fundraising trends, add structural uncertainty that could compress or expand the final popular-vote spread. Primary season developments and any shifts in presidential approval remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could reallocate probability across the listed bins.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Rynek otwarty: Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$35,099Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.Recent generic ballot surveys show Democrats holding a modest national edge of roughly 3 to 6 points over Republicans, consistent with the historical midterm penalty facing the president's party. This positioning keeps mid-single-digit Democratic margins among the most actively traded specific outcomes while the broad "Other" category leads overall, reflecting traders' caution about pinning an exact range 18 months out. Ongoing redistricting in states including Florida and Louisiana, combined with Republican retirements and early fundraising trends, add structural uncertainty that could compress or expand the final popular-vote spread. Primary season developments and any shifts in presidential approval remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could reallocate probability across the listed bins.
This market will resolve according to the popular vote margin of victory between the Democratic Party and the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives midterm elections, scheduled for November 3, 2026.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
For the purpose of this market, the “popular vote margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentage of valid votes cast for all Democratic Party House candidates and the percentage of valid votes cast for all Republican Party House candidates in this election. The percentage of the valid votes cast for each party’s House candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes that party’s House candidates receive by the sum of all valid votes cast for U.S. House candidates in the election. Only votes cast for candidates for U.S. Representative (voting members of the House of Representatives from districts in the 50 states) will be considered; votes for Delegates and the Resident Commissioner will not be considered.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the vote totals as published by the US Clerk of the House. Any recount included in the Clerk of the House’s publication will be considered.
If the US House of Representatives midterm elections do not take place by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the 2026 midterm election results published by the US Clerk of the House (https://history.house.gov/Institution/Election-Statistics/). If the 2026 midterm elections take place, and the Clerk of the House does not publish the results of this election by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source may be chosen.
Wolumen
$35,099Data zakończenia
Nov 3, 2026Rynek otwarty
Feb 18, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent generic ballot surveys show Democrats holding a modest national edge of roughly 3 to 6 points over Republicans, consistent with the historical midterm penalty facing the president's party. This positioning keeps mid-single-digit Democratic margins among the most actively traded specific outcomes while the broad "Other" category leads overall, reflecting traders' caution about pinning an exact range 18 months out. Ongoing redistricting in states including Florida and Louisiana, combined with Republican retirements and early fundraising trends, add structural uncertainty that could compress or expand the final popular-vote spread. Primary season developments and any shifts in presidential approval remain the clearest near-term catalysts that could reallocate probability across the listed bins.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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