Historical rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years based on USGS records since 1900, underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability of “No” through the end of 2026. Only a handful have struck in the instrumental era (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), with the most recent M8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025 falling short on the moment-magnitude scale. Subduction-zone megathrusts capable of such ruptures exhibit long recurrence intervals and no current signs of accelerated strain accumulation or foreshock sequences that would elevate near-term odds. While an unexpected full-margin Cascadia or Nankai event remains theoretically possible, the compressed four-month window leaves little room for the tectonic conditions required.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
9.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
5% szansa
$279,429 Wol.
$279,429 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
5% szansa
$279,429 Wol.
$279,429 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Historical rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years based on USGS records since 1900, underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability of “No” through the end of 2026. Only a handful have struck in the instrumental era (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), with the most recent M8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025 falling short on the moment-magnitude scale. Subduction-zone megathrusts capable of such ruptures exhibit long recurrence intervals and no current signs of accelerated strain accumulation or foreshock sequences that would elevate near-term odds. While an unexpected full-margin Cascadia or Nankai event remains theoretically possible, the compressed four-month window leaves little room for the tectonic conditions required.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ET
Wolumen
$279,429Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.Historical rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years based on USGS records since 1900, underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability of “No” through the end of 2026. Only a handful have struck in the instrumental era (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), with the most recent M8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025 falling short on the moment-magnitude scale. Subduction-zone megathrusts capable of such ruptures exhibit long recurrence intervals and no current signs of accelerated strain accumulation or foreshock sequences that would elevate near-term odds. While an unexpected full-margin Cascadia or Nankai event remains theoretically possible, the compressed four-month window leaves little room for the tectonic conditions required.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 9.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.
Wolumen
$279,429Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 8, 2025, 5:28 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Historical rarity of magnitude 9.0+ events, which occur globally roughly once every 25–50 years based on USGS records since 1900, underpins the 95.5% market-implied probability of “No” through the end of 2026. Only a handful have struck in the instrumental era (1960 Chile 9.5, 1964 Alaska 9.2, 2004 Sumatra 9.1, 2011 Tohoku 9.1), with the most recent M8.8 Kamchatka quake in 2025 falling short on the moment-magnitude scale. Subduction-zone megathrusts capable of such ruptures exhibit long recurrence intervals and no current signs of accelerated strain accumulation or foreshock sequences that would elevate near-term odds. While an unexpected full-margin Cascadia or Nankai event remains theoretically possible, the compressed four-month window leaves little room for the tectonic conditions required.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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