The extreme rarity of magnitude 9.0+ earthquakes underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability against such an event before 2027. Globally, these megathrust quakes recur roughly once every few decades on average, with the most recent being the 2011 Tōhoku event; USGS records confirm none have approached this threshold in the intervening years amid routine monitoring of subduction zones. Short-term forecasting remains impossible due to the absence of reliable precursors, and probabilities for a full-margin rupture in high-risk areas like Cascadia stay low even over multi-decade horizons. A sudden, undetected slip on a major fault could still occur, though current seismic data and historical patterns indicate this remains highly improbable within the narrow timeframe.