**A major May 28, 2026 static-fire explosion at Cape Canaveral’s Launch Complex 36 destroyed a stacked New Glenn vehicle and heavily damaged the sole active pad, grounding the program and driving the 80.5% market-implied probability against any 2026 flight.** Blue Origin identified a BE-4 main oxygen valve issue as the likely root cause and began pad reconstruction with a revised horizontal/vertical hybrid operations concept that skips a new transporter-erector. CEO Dave Limp and founder Jeff Bezos have repeatedly targeted a year-end or December return-to-flight, citing rapid debris clearance and partial infrastructure survival, yet independent assessments note the rebuild remains on the critical path with only weeks left in the year. Key remaining hurdles include completing pad requalification, incorporating engine fixes, securing FAA launch approval, and integrating a ready vehicle and payload. Historical launch-vehicle recovery timelines after similar pad events, combined with Blue Origin’s single-pad constraint and the aggressive schedule, underpin trader consensus that a 2026 liftoff is unlikely despite the company’s public commitment.