Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d'Or as one of the festival's tightest races in years, with Pawel Pawlikowski's FATHERLAND holding a narrow edge at 26.5% implied probability over Na Hong-jin's HOPE at 24.5%. The top five entries remain within a 6-point spread, underscoring how the international jury often rewards established auteurs who deliver bold, thematically ambitious work over safer commercial fare. Pawlikowski's prior Cannes success with Cold War and Hong-jin's reputation for visceral genre storytelling have anchored early sentiment, while films from Emmanuel Marre, Léa Mysius, and the Calvo-Ambrossi duo benefit from strong critical pedigrees and distinctive narrative risks. With screenings still unfolding, late jury deliberations and word-of-mouth momentum will determine whether any contender pulls ahead before the awards ceremony.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 25%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED) 24%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 24%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE 20.3%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
25%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
24%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
24%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
20%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
20%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
20%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
26%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
17%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
19%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
12%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
10%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
7%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
5%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
PAPER TIGER by James GRAY
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
1%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin 25%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED) 24%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV 24%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE 20.3%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
25%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
24%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
24%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
20%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
20%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
20%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
26%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
17%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
19%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
12%
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
10%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
7%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
5%
MOULIN by László NEMES
4%
PAPER TIGER by James GRAY
4%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
4%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
3%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
3%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
3%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
3%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
1%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
<1%
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Traders view the 2026 Cannes Palme d'Or as one of the festival's tightest races in years, with Pawel Pawlikowski's FATHERLAND holding a narrow edge at 26.5% implied probability over Na Hong-jin's HOPE at 24.5%. The top five entries remain within a 6-point spread, underscoring how the international jury often rewards established auteurs who deliver bold, thematically ambitious work over safer commercial fare. Pawlikowski's prior Cannes success with Cold War and Hong-jin's reputation for visceral genre storytelling have anchored early sentiment, while films from Emmanuel Marre, Léa Mysius, and the Calvo-Ambrossi duo benefit from strong critical pedigrees and distinctive narrative risks. With screenings still unfolding, late jury deliberations and word-of-mouth momentum will determine whether any contender pulls ahead before the awards ceremony.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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