Trader consensus on the 2026 Cannes Palme d'Or reflects a fiercely competitive main competition lineup announced last month, with Gentle Monster by Marie Kreutzer, The Man I Love by Ira Sachs, and Nagi Notes by Koji Fukada emerging as co-frontrunners at around 37% implied probabilities due to their directors' strong Cannes pedigrees—Kreutzer's Corsage buzz, Sachs' intimate Passages acclaim, and Fukada's prior Un Certain Regard entries. French-heavy contenders like Notre Salut and A Woman's Life cluster tightly at 36.5%, buoyed by domestic momentum and auteur appeal, while László Nemes' Moulin holds steady amid Son of Saul nostalgia. With screenings kicking off this week under Park Chan-wook's jury, early clips and sales heat (e.g., Rami Malek's star draw in Sachs' 1980s AIDS-era drama) fuel the deadlock, but critical reception and jury tastes will dictate shifts before the May 24 awards.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoCannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
Cannes Film Festival: Palme d'Or Winner
MOULIN by László NEMES 81%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET 80%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER 80%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji 79%
MOULIN by László NEMES
81%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
80%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
80%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
79%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
78%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
74%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
71%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
51%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
46%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
14%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
8%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
10%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
8%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
7%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
7%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
5%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
4%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
-
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
36%
MOULIN by László NEMES 81%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET 80%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER 80%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji 79%
MOULIN by László NEMES
81%
A WOMAN'S LIFE by Charline BOURGEOIS-TACQUET
80%
GENTLE MONSTER by Marie KREUTZER
80%
NAGI NOTES by FUKADA Koji
79%
THE BIRTHDAY PARTY by Léa MYSIUS
78%
NOTRE SALUT by Emmanuel MARRE
74%
THE MAN I LOVE by Ira SACHS
71%
ANOTHER DAY by Jeanne HERRY
51%
EL SER QUERIDO by Rodrigo SOROGOYEN (THE BELOVED)
46%
HOPE by NA Hong-jin
21%
MINOTAUR by Andrey ZVYAGINTSEV
14%
AMARGA NAVIDAD by Pedro ALMODÓVAR
8%
THE UNKNOWN by Arthur HARARI
10%
ALL OF A SUDDEN by HAMAGUCHI Ryusuke
8%
PARALLEL TALES by Asghar FARHADI
7%
FATHERLAND by Pawel PAWLIKOWSKI
7%
COWARD by Lukas DHONT
5%
LA BOLA NEGRA by Javier CALVO & Javier AMBROSSI
5%
SHEEP IN THE BOX by KORE-EDA Hirokazu
4%
DAS GETRÄUMTE ABENTEUER by Valeska GRISEBACH
-
FJORD by Cristian MUNGIU
36%
This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 16, 2026, 2:23 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the listed film that wins the Palme d'Or award at the 2026 Cannes Film Festival.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". In the case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the listed film whose title comes first in alphabetical order.
The resolution source will be the broadcast of the Cannes Film Festival and the official Cannes Film Festival website (https://www.festival-cannes.com/en/live/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the 2026 Cannes Palme d'Or reflects a fiercely competitive main competition lineup announced last month, with Gentle Monster by Marie Kreutzer, The Man I Love by Ira Sachs, and Nagi Notes by Koji Fukada emerging as co-frontrunners at around 37% implied probabilities due to their directors' strong Cannes pedigrees—Kreutzer's Corsage buzz, Sachs' intimate Passages acclaim, and Fukada's prior Un Certain Regard entries. French-heavy contenders like Notre Salut and A Woman's Life cluster tightly at 36.5%, buoyed by domestic momentum and auteur appeal, while László Nemes' Moulin holds steady amid Son of Saul nostalgia. With screenings kicking off this week under Park Chan-wook's jury, early clips and sales heat (e.g., Rami Malek's star draw in Sachs' 1980s AIDS-era drama) fuel the deadlock, but critical reception and jury tastes will dictate shifts before the May 24 awards.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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