The ongoing Bundibugyo virus Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, now exceeding 8,000 confirmed cases and nearly 4,000 deaths across 63 health zones with a case fatality ratio near 48%, drives the 97.5% market-implied probability against a 2026 pandemic. Official WHO and CDC data show rapid early growth but recent declines in some provinces, expanded treatment capacity, and contact tracing improvements, with the Director-General explicitly stating Ebola will not become a pandemic. Limited cross-border transmission to Uganda has ceased community spread, and historical patterns confirm Ebola rarely exports widely outside Africa. A PHEIC declaration reflects regional risk without meeting pandemic thresholds for sustained global transmission. Realistic scenarios that could shift odds include undetected international seeding combined with mutation boosting transmissibility or major response disruptions from conflict and health worker shortages, though current model consensus and surveillance data indicate low likelihood before year-end.