Recent developments in the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026, underpin the 96.4% market-implied odds against an Ebola pandemic this year. Over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths remain concentrated in six eastern DRC provinces, with limited imported cases elsewhere and no sustained community transmission beyond the region. The virus spreads via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely achieve pandemic scale due to rapid case detection and isolation. Traders assess that current surveillance, contact tracing, and response measures, despite challenges from conflict and the lack of approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccines, make widespread global expansion improbable before year-end. A realistic shift could occur only with undetected exportation leading to new chains of transmission in multiple continents.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoEbola pandemic in 2026?
Ebola pandemic in 2026?
4% szansa
$698,761 Wol.
$698,761 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
4% szansa
$698,761 Wol.
$698,761 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026, underpin the 96.4% market-implied odds against an Ebola pandemic this year. Over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths remain concentrated in six eastern DRC provinces, with limited imported cases elsewhere and no sustained community transmission beyond the region. The virus spreads via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely achieve pandemic scale due to rapid case detection and isolation. Traders assess that current surveillance, contact tracing, and response measures, despite challenges from conflict and the lack of approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccines, make widespread global expansion improbable before year-end. A realistic shift could occur only with undetected exportation leading to new chains of transmission in multiple continents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ET
Wolumen
$698,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent developments in the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026, underpin the 96.4% market-implied odds against an Ebola pandemic this year. Over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths remain concentrated in six eastern DRC provinces, with limited imported cases elsewhere and no sustained community transmission beyond the region. The virus spreads via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely achieve pandemic scale due to rapid case detection and isolation. Traders assess that current surveillance, contact tracing, and response measures, despite challenges from conflict and the lack of approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccines, make widespread global expansion improbable before year-end. A realistic shift could occur only with undetected exportation leading to new chains of transmission in multiple continents.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Ebola virus disease, Ebola, any Ebola strain, or any outbreak of ebola as a “pandemic” in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a “pandemic.” A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$698,761Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 15, 2026, 3:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent developments in the ongoing Bundibugyo virus outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, declared a public health emergency of international concern in May 2026, underpin the 96.4% market-implied odds against an Ebola pandemic this year. Over 5,000 confirmed cases and 2,300 deaths remain concentrated in six eastern DRC provinces, with limited imported cases elsewhere and no sustained community transmission beyond the region. The virus spreads via direct contact with bodily fluids rather than airborne routes, and historical patterns show Ebola outbreaks rarely achieve pandemic scale due to rapid case detection and isolation. Traders assess that current surveillance, contact tracing, and response measures, despite challenges from conflict and the lack of approved Bundibugyo-specific vaccines, make widespread global expansion improbable before year-end. A realistic shift could occur only with undetected exportation leading to new chains of transmission in multiple continents.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania