The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoECB Interest Rates: June 2026
ECB Interest Rates: June 2026
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 14.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,505 Wol.
$275,505 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
14%
25 bps Increase
85%
50+ bps increase
1%
25 bps Increase 85%
No change 14.2%
50+ bps increase <1%
50+ bps decrease <1%
$275,505 Wol.
$275,505 Wol.
Jun 11, 2026
50+ bps decrease
$54,094 Wol.
<1%
25 bps decrease
$43,932 Wol.
<1%
No change
$52,213 Wol.
14%
25 bps Increase
$72,057 Wol.
85%
50+ bps increase
$53,209 Wol.
1%
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Rynek otwarty: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Wolumen
$275,505Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the deposit facility rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the European Central Bank's (ECB) June 2026 meeting.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
If the deposit facility rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points and will resolve to the relevant bracket. For example, if the deposit facility rate is increased or decreased by 12.5 basis points, it will be treated as a 25 basis point change for the purposes of resolution.
The resolution source for this market is information released by the European Central Bank after its June 11, 2026 monetary policy meeting, as listed on the official ECB calendar:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/calendars/mgcgc/html/index.en.html
The level and change of the deposit facility rate is also published at the official ECB interest rates page:
https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/policy_and_exchange_rates/key_ecb_interest_rates/html/index.en.html
This market may resolve as soon as the ECB releases its interest rate decision following the June 11, 2026, meeting.
If no interest rate decision or update is published by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.
Wolumen
$275,505Data zakończenia
Jun 11, 2026Rynek otwarty
Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The surge in Eurozone inflation to 3.0% in April, driven by energy price spikes from Middle East geopolitical tensions, has positioned a 25 basis point ECB deposit rate hike at the June 11 meeting as the dominant market-implied outcome at 85%. Following the April 30 decision to hold rates steady at 2.00%, policymakers highlighted intensified upside inflation risks while noting downside growth pressures, with surveys showing economists converging on a June increase to 2.25% and at least one more move later in 2026. Weak first-quarter GDP growth of 0.1% tempers expectations for larger adjustments, keeping the probability of no change at 13.6%, though May CPI data and any escalation in energy costs could further shape the path ahead of the meeting.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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