The contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, which produced only 12–13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths worldwide before containment, underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official surveillance by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC found no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the initial close-contact exposures, consistent with Andes virus epidemiology that requires prolonged intimate contact rather than efficient respiratory spread. By late June the CDC formally ended its federal response after monitoring roughly 40 U.S. contacts yielded zero secondary cases, aligning with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne New World hantavirus infections that rarely exceed isolated clusters. While novel mutations or undetected chains remain theoretically possible, current epidemiological data and contact-tracing thresholds show no trajectory toward pandemic scale.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% szansa
$17,843,462 Wol.
$17,843,462 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$17,843,462 Wol.
$17,843,462 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, which produced only 12–13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths worldwide before containment, underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official surveillance by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC found no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the initial close-contact exposures, consistent with Andes virus epidemiology that requires prolonged intimate contact rather than efficient respiratory spread. By late June the CDC formally ended its federal response after monitoring roughly 40 U.S. contacts yielded zero secondary cases, aligning with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne New World hantavirus infections that rarely exceed isolated clusters. While novel mutations or undetected chains remain theoretically possible, current epidemiological data and contact-tracing thresholds show no trajectory toward pandemic scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,843,462Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, which produced only 12–13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths worldwide before containment, underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official surveillance by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC found no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the initial close-contact exposures, consistent with Andes virus epidemiology that requires prolonged intimate contact rather than efficient respiratory spread. By late June the CDC formally ended its federal response after monitoring roughly 40 U.S. contacts yielded zero secondary cases, aligning with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne New World hantavirus infections that rarely exceed isolated clusters. While novel mutations or undetected chains remain theoretically possible, current epidemiological data and contact-tracing thresholds show no trajectory toward pandemic scale.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$17,843,462Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The contained May 2026 Andes virus cluster aboard the MV Hondius, which produced only 12–13 confirmed or probable cases and three deaths worldwide before containment, underpins the 96.4% market-implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic in 2026. Official surveillance by the CDC, WHO, and ECDC found no sustained person-to-person transmission beyond the initial close-contact exposures, consistent with Andes virus epidemiology that requires prolonged intimate contact rather than efficient respiratory spread. By late June the CDC formally ended its federal response after monitoring roughly 40 U.S. contacts yielded zero secondary cases, aligning with historical patterns of sporadic, rodent-borne New World hantavirus infections that rarely exceed isolated clusters. While novel mutations or undetected chains remain theoretically possible, current epidemiological data and contact-tracing thresholds show no trajectory toward pandemic scale.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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