The 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced just 13 cases and three deaths before containment through quarantines and contact tracing of over 600 individuals across dozens of countries, has driven the market's 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic. Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC confirm no sustained human-to-human transmission occurred outside the initial cluster, consistent with Andes virus's requirement for prolonged close contact and estimated R0 near 1.2—far below thresholds for widespread epidemics. Most hantaviruses remain strictly zoonotic via rodent excreta, with sporadic U.S. cases showing no escalation through August 2026. While a new spillover or rare mutational shift enabling efficient airborne spread could theoretically alter outcomes, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate negligible likelihood before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHantavirus pandemic in 2026?
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
4% szansa
$17,978,444 Wol.
$17,978,444 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
4% szansa
$17,978,444 Wol.
$17,978,444 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced just 13 cases and three deaths before containment through quarantines and contact tracing of over 600 individuals across dozens of countries, has driven the market's 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic. Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC confirm no sustained human-to-human transmission occurred outside the initial cluster, consistent with Andes virus's requirement for prolonged close contact and estimated R0 near 1.2—far below thresholds for widespread epidemics. Most hantaviruses remain strictly zoonotic via rodent excreta, with sporadic U.S. cases showing no escalation through August 2026. While a new spillover or rare mutational shift enabling efficient airborne spread could theoretically alter outcomes, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate negligible likelihood before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Rynek otwarty: May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ET
Wolumen
$17,978,444Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced just 13 cases and three deaths before containment through quarantines and contact tracing of over 600 individuals across dozens of countries, has driven the market's 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic. Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC confirm no sustained human-to-human transmission occurred outside the initial cluster, consistent with Andes virus's requirement for prolonged close contact and estimated R0 near 1.2—far below thresholds for widespread epidemics. Most hantaviruses remain strictly zoonotic via rodent excreta, with sporadic U.S. cases showing no escalation through August 2026. While a new spillover or rare mutational shift enabling efficient airborne spread could theoretically alter outcomes, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate negligible likelihood before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the World Health Organization explicitly characterizes Hantavirus, Hantavirus Pulmonary Syndrome (HPS), Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome (HFRS), or a Hantavirus-related outbreak as a "pandemic" in an official public communication between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
An explicit characterization includes official WHO statements, reports, press briefings, or publications that clearly describe the outbreak as a "pandemic." A Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC) alone will not qualify unless it is also described as a pandemic.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official WHO communications. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Wolumen
$17,978,444Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
May 4, 2026, 10:26 AM ETRozstrzygający
0x65070BE91...The 2026 Andes virus outbreak aboard the MV Hondius cruise ship, which produced just 13 cases and three deaths before containment through quarantines and contact tracing of over 600 individuals across dozens of countries, has driven the market's 96.4% implied probability against a hantavirus pandemic. Official assessments from the CDC, WHO, and ECDC confirm no sustained human-to-human transmission occurred outside the initial cluster, consistent with Andes virus's requirement for prolonged close contact and estimated R0 near 1.2—far below thresholds for widespread epidemics. Most hantaviruses remain strictly zoonotic via rodent excreta, with sporadic U.S. cases showing no escalation through August 2026. While a new spillover or rare mutational shift enabling efficient airborne spread could theoretically alter outcomes, current surveillance data and epidemiological patterns indicate negligible likelihood before year-end.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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