Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow high will US unemployment go in 2026?
How high will US unemployment go in 2026?
$456,005 Wol.
Jan 10, 2026
5.0%
18%
5.5%
11%
6.0%
12%
7.0%
6%
10.0%
2%
$456,005 Wol.
5.0%
$117,701 Wol.
18%
5.5%
$195,437 Wol.
11%
6.0%
$71,207 Wol.
12%
7.0%
$28,968 Wol.
6%
10.0%
$42,693 Wol.
2%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ET
Wolumen
$456,005Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in an “Employment Situation Report” for a reference month in 2026 is greater than or equal to the listed percentage. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The relevant reports for this market are the Employment Situation Reports for January-December, 2026. This market may not resolve to “No” until the Employment Situation report for December 2026 is released. If no Employment Situation Report for December 2026 is released by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, however, this market will resolve based on all previously published data up to that time.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for each month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Wolumen
$456,005Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent May 2026 employment data showed the unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3 percent alongside a robust 172,000 nonfarm payroll gain and upward revisions to prior months, underscoring labor market resilience amid elevated inflation and Fed policy rates in the 3.5–3.75 percent range. Traders price in modest further increases through year-end, consistent with consensus forecasts of 4.5–4.8 percent peaks driven by slower hiring, energy-driven price pressures, and GDP growth near 1.8–2.1 percent. Key near-term catalysts include the July 2 jobs release and upcoming FOMC deliberations, which could shift implied probabilities if payroll trends cool or inflation moderates faster than expected.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania