Recent USGS monitoring shows multiple M7.0+ events in 2026, including a June doublet of 7.5 and 7.2 offshore Venezuela, a 7.8 in the Philippines, and an August 7.4 in Colombia, contributing to a year-to-date total consistent with typical global rates of roughly 15–20 such earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 total outcomes reflects this steady pace through mid-August alongside the absence of anomalous clustering or quiet periods that would shift projections significantly. Seismic activity remains driven by plate boundary interactions, with no major deviations from long-term USGS catalogs or model expectations for the remaining months. Upcoming data releases from continuous USGS catalogs and any new large events could refine these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle 7,0 lub więcej trzęsień ziemi w 2026 roku?
Ile 7,0 lub więcej trzęsień ziemi w 2026 roku?
14–16 45%
17–19 28%
11–13 18%
20+ 8.8%
$1,369,803 Wol.
$1,369,803 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
8–10
1%
11–13
18%
14–16
45%
17–19
28%
20+
9%
14–16 45%
17–19 28%
11–13 18%
20+ 8.8%
$1,369,803 Wol.
$1,369,803 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
8–10
$144,428 Wol.
1%
11–13
$414,700 Wol.
18%
14–16
$187,711 Wol.
45%
17–19
$212,491 Wol.
28%
20+
$66,440 Wol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows multiple M7.0+ events in 2026, including a June doublet of 7.5 and 7.2 offshore Venezuela, a 7.8 in the Philippines, and an August 7.4 in Colombia, contributing to a year-to-date total consistent with typical global rates of roughly 15–20 such earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 total outcomes reflects this steady pace through mid-August alongside the absence of anomalous clustering or quiet periods that would shift projections significantly. Seismic activity remains driven by plate boundary interactions, with no major deviations from long-term USGS catalogs or model expectations for the remaining months. Upcoming data releases from continuous USGS catalogs and any new large events could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,369,803Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows multiple M7.0+ events in 2026, including a June doublet of 7.5 and 7.2 offshore Venezuela, a 7.8 in the Philippines, and an August 7.4 in Colombia, contributing to a year-to-date total consistent with typical global rates of roughly 15–20 such earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 total outcomes reflects this steady pace through mid-August alongside the absence of anomalous clustering or quiet periods that would shift projections significantly. Seismic activity remains driven by plate boundary interactions, with no major deviations from long-term USGS catalogs or model expectations for the remaining months. Upcoming data releases from continuous USGS catalogs and any new large events could refine these implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$1,369,803Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Dec 31, 2025, 12:10 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent USGS monitoring shows multiple M7.0+ events in 2026, including a June doublet of 7.5 and 7.2 offshore Venezuela, a 7.8 in the Philippines, and an August 7.4 in Colombia, contributing to a year-to-date total consistent with typical global rates of roughly 15–20 such earthquakes annually. Trader consensus favoring 14–16 total outcomes reflects this steady pace through mid-August alongside the absence of anomalous clustering or quiet periods that would shift projections significantly. Seismic activity remains driven by plate boundary interactions, with no major deviations from long-term USGS catalogs or model expectations for the remaining months. Upcoming data releases from continuous USGS catalogs and any new large events could refine these implied probabilities.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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