Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.4%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Wol.
$31,080 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
35%
1-3
63%
4-6
3%
7+
<1%
1-3 63%
0 35%
4-6 3.4%
7+ <1%
$31,080 Wol.
$31,080 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$16,790 Wol.
35%
1-3
$5,372 Wol.
63%
4-6
$6,694 Wol.
3%
7+
$2,224 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Rynek otwarty: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Wolumen
$31,080Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Wolumen
$31,080Data zakończenia
Jan 1, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific have generated elevated wind shear across the Atlantic main development region, suppressing tropical cyclone intensification and yielding a record-late start with zero hurricanes formed through mid-September 2026 despite five short-lived tropical storms. NOAA’s August update assigns a 75% probability of a below-normal season overall, projecting 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period amid continued El Niño strengthening through the peak months. Updated private forecasts have narrowed expectations further to 1–3 hurricanes, consistent with the current Accumulated Cyclone Energy near 7% of average. With the climatological peak passed and hostile steering patterns persisting, trader consensus heavily favors 1–3 total hurricanes or possibly none, though late-season systems remain possible if shear relaxes.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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