Trader consensus on zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 stems from the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May, despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. Such events require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruptive plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds met only rarely worldwide with a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and year-end monitoring updates from agencies like the USGS remain the primary variables that could shift these market-implied odds if a major system escalates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIle dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
Ile dużych erupcji wulkanów (VEI ≥4) w 2026 roku?
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Wol.
$1,079,004 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
61%
1
35%
2
4%
3
1%
4
<1%
5+
<1%
0 61%
1 35%
2 4.0%
3 <1%
$1,079,004 Wol.
$1,079,004 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
0
$477,398 Wol.
61%
1
$260,191 Wol.
35%
2
$32,241 Wol.
4%
3
$26,240 Wol.
1%
4
$24,441 Wol.
<1%
5+
$258,493 Wol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 stems from the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May, despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. Such events require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruptive plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds met only rarely worldwide with a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and year-end monitoring updates from agencies like the USGS remain the primary variables that could shift these market-implied odds if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Rynek otwarty: Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ET
Wolumen
$1,079,004Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.Trader consensus on zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 stems from the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May, despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. Such events require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruptive plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds met only rarely worldwide with a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and year-end monitoring updates from agencies like the USGS remain the primary variables that could shift these market-implied odds if a major system escalates.
This market will resolve according to the number of natural volcanic eruptions with a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) of 4 or higher between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
The primary resolution source will be the Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program (GVP: https://volcano.si.edu/), specifically the cumulative figures for 2026 for VEI 4, VEI 5, and VEI 6 released on the page currently titled "Eruptions Avg 2000-2024 (N/T)" (https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear) as of March 31, 2027, 12 PM ET. Any prior updates will not be considered finalized.
If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant events by March 31, 2027, or if the Smithsonian GVP becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible scientific sources, including the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), national or regional volcanic observatories, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus.
Note: Smithsonian Institution Global Volcanism Program databases, which include eruptions that reached the relevant threshold prior to this market’s timeframe (e.g., https://volcano.si.edu/faq/index.cfm?question=eruptionsbyyear&checkyear=2025), will not be considered.
Wolumen
$1,079,004Data zakończenia
Mar 31, 2027Rynek otwarty
Jan 2, 2026, 1:48 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on zero or one VEI ≥4 eruption in 2026 stems from the complete absence of qualifying events through mid-May, despite 47 confirmed smaller eruptions tracked by the Smithsonian Institution and USGS Global Volcanism Program. Such events require at least 0.1 cubic kilometers of tephra and eruptive plumes exceeding 10 kilometers, thresholds met only rarely worldwide with a long-term average of roughly 0.6 per year. Recent weekly reports highlight elevated but sub-threshold activity, including brief high ash plumes at Dukono and ongoing unrest at Kīlauea, Popocatépetl, and Aira, none yet producing sufficient ejecta volume. Unpredictable magmatic recharge and year-end monitoring updates from agencies like the USGS remain the primary variables that could shift these market-implied odds if a major system escalates.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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