UK parliamentary by-elections occur when MPs resign, die, or otherwise vacate seats outside a general election, with writs issued under standard Commons procedures. As of early July 2026, four have been confirmed or held this year—Gorton and Denton in February, plus Aberdeen South and Makerfield in June—while a fifth in Clacton was triggered by Nigel Farage’s July 7 resignation amid standards scrutiny. Trader odds remain tightly clustered because the remainder of 2026 depends on unpredictable factors such as further Labour resignations tied to the ongoing leadership transition after Keir Starmer’s June departure, potential Scottish National Party or Reform UK vacancies, and routine health or personal exits. Historical base rates suggest several more could arise before December, yet the exact total hinges on whether political turbulence accelerates or stabilizes. Any additional high-profile departures before the autumn recess could quickly separate the 6–8 range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano7 45%
≤5 45%
6 45%
8 45%
≤5
45%
6
45%
7
45%
8
45%
9
45%
10+
45%
7 45%
≤5 45%
6 45%
8 45%
≤5
45%
6
45%
7
45%
8
45%
9
45%
10+
45%
Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Rynek otwarty: Jul 8, 2026, 7:33 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Qualifying by-elections must be elections to the UK House of Commons for a vacant parliamentary seat, with polling day scheduled and held within the 2026 calendar year.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official information from the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...UK parliamentary by-elections occur when MPs resign, die, or otherwise vacate seats outside a general election, with writs issued under standard Commons procedures. As of early July 2026, four have been confirmed or held this year—Gorton and Denton in February, plus Aberdeen South and Makerfield in June—while a fifth in Clacton was triggered by Nigel Farage’s July 7 resignation amid standards scrutiny. Trader odds remain tightly clustered because the remainder of 2026 depends on unpredictable factors such as further Labour resignations tied to the ongoing leadership transition after Keir Starmer’s June departure, potential Scottish National Party or Reform UK vacancies, and routine health or personal exits. Historical base rates suggest several more could arise before December, yet the exact total hinges on whether political turbulence accelerates or stabilizes. Any additional high-profile departures before the autumn recess could quickly separate the 6–8 range.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania