Polymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, aligning closely with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, driven by anticipated Q3 peak at 5.2%. This consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48% YoY—the sixth straight monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% amid vegetable price spikes and elevated energy costs, alongside WPI food inflation climbing to 2.31%. Lower buckets like 3.00-3.74% (7.6%) see limited support given the hardening trajectory, with traders eyeing May CPI data and the June RBI MPC for potential shifts in rate path expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoIndia Annual Inflation 2026
India Annual Inflation 2026
4.50%+ 79%
2.25% to 2.99% 8.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.6%
<0.75% 4.0%
$60,464 Wol.
$60,464 Wol.
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
3%
2.25% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.74%
8%
3.75% to 4.49%
1%
4.50%+
79%
4.50%+ 79%
2.25% to 2.99% 8.2%
3.00% to 3.74% 7.6%
<0.75% 4.0%
$60,464 Wol.
$60,464 Wol.
<0.75%
4%
0.75% to 1.49%
3%
1.50% to 2.24%
3%
2.25% to 2.99%
8%
3.00% to 3.74%
8%
3.75% to 4.49%
1%
4.50%+
79%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Rynek otwarty: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders price an 81.5% implied probability for India annual CPI inflation exceeding 4.50% in 2026, aligning closely with the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) April 2026 Monetary Policy Committee projection of 4.6% for FY27, driven by anticipated Q3 peak at 5.2%. This consensus reflects April's CPI reading of 3.48% YoY—the sixth straight monthly rise from March's 3.40%—fueled by food inflation surging to 4.20% amid vegetable price spikes and elevated energy costs, alongside WPI food inflation climbing to 2.31%. Lower buckets like 3.00-3.74% (7.6%) see limited support given the hardening trajectory, with traders eyeing May CPI data and the June RBI MPC for potential shifts in rate path expectations.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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