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Polityka·Egzaminy śródokresowe

Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

icon for Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory
Polityka·Egzaminy śródokresowe

Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory

Turek 20–30% 99.0%

Turek 30%+ 4.5%

Turek <10% 2.6%

Turek 10–20% 1.3%

Polymarket

$5,187 Wol.

Turek 20–30% 99.0%

Turek 30%+ 4.5%

Turek <10% 2.6%

Turek 10–20% 1.3%

Polymarket

$5,187 Wol.

Turek <10%

$308 Wol.

3%

Turek 30%+

$233 Wol.

5%

Turek 10–20%

$227 Wol.

1%

Turek 20–30%

$4,181 Wol.

99%

Wahls Wins

$238 Wol.

1%

Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2, 2026 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results. Pre-election polling had shown Turek maintaining a consistent double-digit lead, bolstered by his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete in a low-turnout contest focused on party infrastructure and general-election positioning against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus places the margin of victory in the 20–30% range at 99% probability because the vote totals aligned closely with those surveys. Official certification or any late adjustments to absentee or provisional ballots remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reported margin.

Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$5,187
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jun 2, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.Josh Turek secured the Democratic nomination for Iowa's open U.S. Senate seat in the June 2, 2026 primary, defeating state Sen. Zach Wahls by roughly 25 percentage points according to certified results. Pre-election polling had shown Turek maintaining a consistent double-digit lead, bolstered by his profile as a state representative and Paralympic athlete in a low-turnout contest focused on party infrastructure and general-election positioning against the Republican nominee. Trader consensus places the margin of victory in the 20–30% range at 99% probability because the vote totals aligned closely with those surveys. Official certification or any late adjustments to absentee or provisional ballots remain the primary variables that could still shift the final reported margin.

Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary.

The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.

If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.

If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”

This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.

If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
Wolumen
$5,187
Data zakończenia
Jun 2, 2026
Rynek otwarty
Jun 2, 2026, 2:04 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
Primary elections in Iowa are scheduled to be held on June 2, 2026. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Iowa Democratic Senate Primary. The “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first-place and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket. If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.” This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Iowa, such as official statewide results published by the Iowa Secretary of State (https://sos.iowa.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.

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"Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" to rynek prognoz na Polymarket z 5 możliwymi wynikami, gdzie traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały na podstawie tego, co ich zdaniem się wydarzy. Obecny wiodący wynik to "Turek 20–30%" z 99%, za nim "Turek 30%+" z 5%. Ceny odzwierciedlają zbiorowe prawdopodobieństwa w czasie rzeczywistym. Na przykład udział wyceniony na 99¢ implikuje, że rynek zbiorowo przypisuje 99% szansy na ten wynik. Te kursy zmieniają się ciągle, gdy traderzy reagują na nowe informacje. Udziały w poprawnym wyniku można wymienić na $1 za sztukę po rozstrzygnięciu rynku.

"Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" to nowo utworzony rynek na Polymarket, uruchomiony Jun 2, 2026. Jako wczesny rynek, to Twoja okazja, aby być jednym z pierwszych traderów, którzy ustalą kursy i określą początkowe sygnały cenowe rynku. Możesz też dodać tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić wolumen i aktywność handlową w miarę rozwoju rynku.

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Obecnym faworytem dla "Iowa Democratic Senate Primary Margin of Victory" jest "Turek 20–30%" z 99%, co oznacza, że rynek przypisuje 99% szansy na ten wynik. Następny najbliższy wynik to "Turek 30%+" z 5%. Te kursy aktualizują się w czasie rzeczywistym, gdy traderzy kupują i sprzedają udziały, odzwierciedlając najnowszy zbiorowy pogląd na to, co jest najbardziej prawdopodobne. Sprawdzaj regularnie lub dodaj tę stronę do zakładek, aby śledzić zmiany kursów.

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