Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with events below magnitude 3 dominating the past year and no foreshock sequences or strain indicators suggesting rapid buildup on local faults such as the San Andreas or blind thrusts. Long-term forecasts place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5+ event well below 5 percent, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades for the area and the absence of major ruptures since the 1994 Northridge quake. Trader consensus at 93.8 percent for no event before 2027 reflects this short time window and quiet conditions. A sudden escalation remains possible if new model runs detect accelerating creep or an unexpected cluster develops, though current data offer no such signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · ZaktualizowanoMagnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
Magnitude 6.5+ earthquake in LA before 2027?
10% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
10% szansa
$16,533 Wol.
$16,533 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with events below magnitude 3 dominating the past year and no foreshock sequences or strain indicators suggesting rapid buildup on local faults such as the San Andreas or blind thrusts. Long-term forecasts place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5+ event well below 5 percent, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades for the area and the absence of major ruptures since the 1994 Northridge quake. Trader consensus at 93.8 percent for no event before 2027 reflects this short time window and quiet conditions. A sudden escalation remains possible if new model runs detect accelerating creep or an unexpected cluster develops, though current data offer no such signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Rynek otwarty: Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ET
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with events below magnitude 3 dominating the past year and no foreshock sequences or strain indicators suggesting rapid buildup on local faults such as the San Andreas or blind thrusts. Long-term forecasts place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5+ event well below 5 percent, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades for the area and the absence of major ruptures since the 1994 Northridge quake. Trader consensus at 93.8 percent for no event before 2027 reflects this short time window and quiet conditions. A sudden escalation remains possible if new model runs detect accelerating creep or an unexpected cluster develops, though current data offer no such signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if an earthquake with a magnitude of 6.5 or greater occurs within a 50-mile radius of Los Angeles, California (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W) between market creation and December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Map (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/map/?extent=32.54681,-121.05835&extent=35.63944,-114.90601).
For the purposes of this market, The epicenter must fall within 50 miles of Los Angeles (34.0522° N, 118.2437° W), calculated as a straight-line distance from the epicenter to the reference point.
If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.
Wolumen
$16,533Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Apr 3, 2026, 6:41 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent USGS monitoring shows only minor seismic activity in the Los Angeles region, with events below magnitude 3 dominating the past year and no foreshock sequences or strain indicators suggesting rapid buildup on local faults such as the San Andreas or blind thrusts. Long-term forecasts place the annual probability of a magnitude 6.5+ event well below 5 percent, consistent with recurrence intervals of decades for the area and the absence of major ruptures since the 1994 Northridge quake. Trader consensus at 93.8 percent for no event before 2027 reflects this short time window and quiet conditions. A sudden escalation remains possible if new model runs detect accelerating creep or an unexpected cluster develops, though current data offer no such signals.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Uważaj na linki zewnętrzne.
Często zadawane pytania