Mojtaba Khamenei has served as Iran’s Supreme Leader since his appointment by the Assembly of Experts in early March 2026, following his father Ali Khamenei’s death in late February strikes, yet he has issued no independently verified public appearances, videos, or audio statements. Officials cite heightened security risks amid the ongoing conflict as the reason for his seclusion, while releasing only written statements and limited undated footage. Recent claims, including October statements from the Imam Reza shrine custodian in Mashhad about private meetings and prayers around the July burial, remain unaccompanied by photographic or video evidence. Traders assess low probabilities for a confirmed appearance by year-end because of this consistent pattern, the absence of scheduled public events like major memorials or religious observances that would compel visibility, and ongoing questions over health recovery and decision-making authority. A single authenticated image or broadcast from state media could shift consensus quickly before the December 31 resolution window.