Recent Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve tightening signals represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket odds for the Nikkei 225 year-end close. With the index trading near 64,100 as of September 17, 2026, after peaking above 72,800 in June, traders assign the highest implied probability (34%) to a 55,000-60,000 settlement, reflecting expectations that the BOJ’s anticipated 25-basis-point hike and Fed’s hawkish stance will tighten liquidity, pressure valuations in AI and semiconductor leaders, and support a stronger yen. Outcomes above 65,000 hinge on resilient corporate earnings revisions and contained rate volatility, while sub-55,000 scenarios would require sharper policy surprises or global risk-off flows. The wide distribution underscores elevated uncertainty with resolution only months away.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano55,000-60,000 34%
<55,000 20.0%
70,000-75,000 16%
65,000-70,000 10.6%
$10,908 Wol.
$10,908 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<55,000
20%
55,000-60,000
34%
60,000-65,000
16%
65,000-70,000
24%
70,000-75,000
16%
75,000-80,000
3%
80,000-85,000
6%
85,000+
8%
55,000-60,000 34%
<55,000 20.0%
70,000-75,000 16%
65,000-70,000 10.6%
$10,908 Wol.
$10,908 Wol.
Dec 30, 2026
<55,000
$1,173 Wol.
20%
55,000-60,000
$329 Wol.
34%
60,000-65,000
$684 Wol.
16%
65,000-70,000
$544 Wol.
24%
70,000-75,000
$4,020 Wol.
16%
75,000-80,000
$3,099 Wol.
3%
80,000-85,000
$475 Wol.
6%
85,000+
$584 Wol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”Recent Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve tightening signals represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket odds for the Nikkei 225 year-end close. With the index trading near 64,100 as of September 17, 2026, after peaking above 72,800 in June, traders assign the highest implied probability (34%) to a 55,000-60,000 settlement, reflecting expectations that the BOJ’s anticipated 25-basis-point hike and Fed’s hawkish stance will tighten liquidity, pressure valuations in AI and semiconductor leaders, and support a stronger yen. Outcomes above 65,000 hinge on resilient corporate earnings revisions and contained rate volatility, while sub-55,000 scenarios would require sharper policy surprises or global risk-off flows. The wide distribution underscores elevated uncertainty with resolution only months away.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
Rynek otwarty: Jun 10, 2026, 4:46 PM ET
Wolumen
$10,908Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:46 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”Recent Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve tightening signals represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket odds for the Nikkei 225 year-end close. With the index trading near 64,100 as of September 17, 2026, after peaking above 72,800 in June, traders assign the highest implied probability (34%) to a 55,000-60,000 settlement, reflecting expectations that the BOJ’s anticipated 25-basis-point hike and Fed’s hawkish stance will tighten liquidity, pressure valuations in AI and semiconductor leaders, and support a stronger yen. Outcomes above 65,000 hinge on resilient corporate earnings revisions and contained rate volatility, while sub-55,000 scenarios would require sharper policy surprises or global risk-off flows. The wide distribution underscores elevated uncertainty with resolution only months away.
This market will resolve according to the official closing price for the Nikkei 225 (NI225) on the final trading day of December 2026, reported in JPY.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official closing price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution.
If no official closing price is published for that session (for example, due to a trading halt into the close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.
The resolution source for this market is Yahoo Finance, specifically the Nikkei 225 (^N225) "Close" prices available at (https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/%5EN225/history/), published under "Historical Data.”
Wolumen
$10,908Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Jun 10, 2026, 4:46 PM ETRozstrzygający
0x69c47De9D...Recent Bank of Japan and Federal Reserve tightening signals represent the dominant driver behind Polymarket odds for the Nikkei 225 year-end close. With the index trading near 64,100 as of September 17, 2026, after peaking above 72,800 in June, traders assign the highest implied probability (34%) to a 55,000-60,000 settlement, reflecting expectations that the BOJ’s anticipated 25-basis-point hike and Fed’s hawkish stance will tighten liquidity, pressure valuations in AI and semiconductor leaders, and support a stronger yen. Outcomes above 65,000 hinge on resilient corporate earnings revisions and contained rate volatility, while sub-55,000 scenarios would require sharper policy surprises or global risk-off flows. The wide distribution underscores elevated uncertainty with resolution only months away.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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