Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained low equity volatility and resilient benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Recent economic data releases show moderate inflation trends and stable labor conditions, supporting steady Federal Reserve policy without sharp rate shifts that could spark selloffs. Circuit breakers, triggered at 7%, 13%, or 20% declines, have remained dormant since 2020 amid contained macroeconomic risks and orderly trading volumes. While unexpected geopolitical or earnings shocks could still test thresholds, base rates of such events remain low outside acute crises, reinforcing the market-implied odds for no activation through year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano14% szansa
$99,798 Wol.
$99,798 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
14% szansa
$99,798 Wol.
$99,798 Wol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained low equity volatility and resilient benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Recent economic data releases show moderate inflation trends and stable labor conditions, supporting steady Federal Reserve policy without sharp rate shifts that could spark selloffs. Circuit breakers, triggered at 7%, 13%, or 20% declines, have remained dormant since 2020 amid contained macroeconomic risks and orderly trading volumes. While unexpected geopolitical or earnings shocks could still test thresholds, base rates of such events remain low outside acute crises, reinforcing the market-implied odds for no activation through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Rynek otwarty: Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ET
Wolumen
$99,798Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained low equity volatility and resilient benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Recent economic data releases show moderate inflation trends and stable labor conditions, supporting steady Federal Reserve policy without sharp rate shifts that could spark selloffs. Circuit breakers, triggered at 7%, 13%, or 20% declines, have remained dormant since 2020 amid contained macroeconomic risks and orderly trading volumes. While unexpected geopolitical or earnings shocks could still test thresholds, base rates of such events remain low outside acute crises, reinforcing the market-implied odds for no activation through year-end 2026.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Wolumen
$99,798Data zakończenia
Dec 31, 2026Rynek otwarty
Nov 7, 2025, 4:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus assigns an 86% implied probability against a NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027, reflecting sustained low equity volatility and resilient benchmarks such as the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. Recent economic data releases show moderate inflation trends and stable labor conditions, supporting steady Federal Reserve policy without sharp rate shifts that could spark selloffs. Circuit breakers, triggered at 7%, 13%, or 20% declines, have remained dormant since 2020 amid contained macroeconomic risks and orderly trading volumes. While unexpected geopolitical or earnings shocks could still test thresholds, base rates of such events remain low outside acute crises, reinforcing the market-implied odds for no activation through year-end 2026.
Eksperymentalne podsumowanie AI odwołujące się do danych Polymarket. To nie jest porada handlowa i nie ma wpływu na rozstrzyganie tego rynku. · Zaktualizowano
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